Wells Fargo Championship 2022 Odds & Picks: Bet Matt Fitzpatrick & These 4 Longshots

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We had a couple chances in Mexico over the weekend. But in the end Jon Rahm locked up a rare win for the favorite this year and took down an unimpressive field.

Cameron Champ made it to the final group and looked good until a triple bogey derailed him, while Davis Riley locked up another top-5.

Now we shift our attention to the Wells Fargo Championship. No Quail Hollow this week for us, which has been a pretty straightforward distance course. That track is getting ready to host the Presidents Cup this fall, so we'll get another look at TPC Potomac this week.

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The Course

TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm will host this event for the first time, but it was used for the 2017 and '18 Quicken Loans National, won by Kyle Stanley and Francesco Molinari. Prior to that it had a 20 year run hosting the Booz Allen Classic.

The 7,107-yard, par-70 course can be a difficult test, although Molinari lit it up at 21-under for an eight-shot win. Stanley beat Charles Howell III in a playoff at 7-under par.

Precision off the tee is required for success. The fairways aren’t very wide, and there is little margin for error, with thick rough waiting to swallow up errant drives. Bunkers surround speedy bentgrass greens, putting an importance on the iron game.

We’re going to be looking for players who can gain ground off the tee without necessarily hitting it a long way, because the bomb-and-gouge technique hasn't really worked here previously. Players will need to combine that with a dialed-in approach game.

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The Favorites

He's not quite at the Rahm level from last week, but Rory McIlroy opens as a clear favorite at around +700 this week. McIlroy is technically the defending champ, although that was at Quail Hollow, which suits his game much better that TPC Potomac. He hasn't played here, but the form was solid the last time we saw him at the Masters, where a strong Sunday saw him finish second.

From there, we skip right to the +2000s, where Tony Finau, Corey Conners, Tyrell Hatton and Matthew Fitzpatrick make up the next group.

Finau will get a look after finally showing some life on the greens on Sunday to finish second behind Rahm in Mexico. Hatton and Fitzpatrick will make their debuts here this week, both entering with hit-and-miss form. Hatton has been a lock to make a cut, but he hasn't done much in the way of contending lately. Fitzpatrick has plenty of top-20 finishes this season, five out of his last seven worldwide, but hasn't really been too close to a win either.

Conners should be the best fit of the bunch. He was 41st back in 2018 at the Quicken Loans National, and the form has been as good as anyone in this field. If it ends up being one of those 10-under type weeks, this could be a good chance for him to come out on top.

I'm going to make one play here with Fitzpatrick at +2200 on BetMGM. This was the range Molinari hit for us on this course last time, so I'm circling back here.

Fitzpatrick isn't going to overpower a course, but he's gained distance and accuracy on the field most weeks off the tee. The irons are gaining ground pretty much every week as well and his short game is solid more often than not.

When Fitzpatrick has won in Europe, it's usually been on these shorter courses. Four times he's come out on top under 7,100 yards. If he's going to breakthrough on the PGA TOUR, it may well be an event like this with the big names gone on a course that should fit his style, much like when Molinari broke his PGA drought four years ago.

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The Mid-Tier

I'm going with Keith Mitchell here at +6600 on BetRivers. Mitchell has been strong off the tee for months with both distance and accuracy. The irons can be hit and miss, but he's also capable of putting together good weeks on approach. The Zurich didn't go well, missing the cut with Brandt Snedeker, but prior to that he'd finished inside the top 15 in four of his last five starts.

Next up, we'll look at Sepp Straka at +7000 on FanDuel. Straka has a win at Honda, and he was third at Heritage and ninth at the PLAYERS, so this type of event should fit his eye.

A lot of the success for Straka has come from the short game, but he hasn't shown even a glimpse that the putter may be cooling off, and he's been putting together strong weeks off the tee.

We'll also go with Aaron Rai at +8000 on DraftKings. Most of Rai's success overseas has come on shorter courses although that hasn't been the case this year on the PGA TOUR. But when he continues to put up solid results on longer courses like Torrey Pines, TPC San Antonio and last week in Mexico, I'll keep going to him in spots like this where he should be able to contend with the length advantage negated to some extent.

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The Longshots

We'll open this range with David Lipsky at 100-1 on DraftKings. He's on the shorter side off the tee, so a sixth in Mexico is a good sign of where the game is at. He gained the most strokes in the field with the approach game as well last week.

Rai has been able to string a few good results together now with a fourth at Zurich, where he partnered with Rai, along with a seventh at Corales. He's won in Asia, Europe and the Korn Ferry Tour. Obviously it's a step up, but in this type of field, he could add a PGA TOUR win to the resume.

The Wells Fargo Card

• Matthew Fitzpatrick +2100 (1.57 units)
• Keith Mitchell +6600 (.5 units)
• Sepp Straka +7000 (.47 units)
• Aaron Rai +8000 (.41 units)
• David Lipsky +10000 (.33 units)

Total Stake: 3.28 units

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