With the Mexico Open now in the rear-view mirror, we move on to the Wells Fargo Championship. This year will be the first time that TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm hosts this tournament as the usual host, Quail Hollow Club, is preparing to host the Presidents Cup in September.
TPC Potomac is making its return to the TOUR for the first time since 2018 when the Maryland course hosted the Quicken Loans National. Following its renovation in 2015, TPC Potomac has hosted just two tournaments as the Quicken Loans National took place there in 2017 and 2018.
We will use the data from those two tournament winners to narrow down what it takes to be successful at this course. The two winners, Francesco Molinari and Kyle Stanley, both excelled in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Strokes Gained: Approach and Driving Accuracy on their way to winning at TPC Potomac.
These metrics make sense as you need to stay safe at this course due to a large number of hazards. Lining TPC Potomac is numerous creeks, streams, and wooded areas that players will need to avoid.
Below, I give out my five Round 1 PrizePicks flex plays for the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship. For those unfamiliar with PrizePicks flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs/unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers an 11x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout, and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
PrizePicks Plays
Corey Conners: Round 1 Under 68 Strokes
Conners is second on the odds board behind Rory McIlroy to win the tournament, and for good reason. This season, he ranks 13th on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, 33rd in Strokes Gained: Approach and 37th in Driving Accuracy.
Conners enters this tournament in great form, having made the cut in each of his last five stroke-play tournaments, including three top-12 finishes. His last event was at RBC Heritage, in which Conners shot 66 in the first round.
In his one appearance at TPC Potomac, Conners shot a 69 in the first round. However, that was in 2018 and Conners is a much better golfer now than he was four years ago.
I would play this number down to 67.5.
Jason Day: Round 1 Over 69 Strokes
Jason Day has really struggled of late, having missed the cut in three of his last four starts. In the first round, Day has shot a 69 or higher in all three of those missed cuts.
TPC Potomac will most likely not be a place where Day figures it out since his metrics suggest this course will not suit his game. Currently, Day ranks just 154th on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, 154th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 115th in Driving Accuracy.
I would not play this total at anything higher than 69.
Rickie Fowler: Round 1 Over 69.5 Strokes
This number is set too low due to Fowler being a fan favorite, and this is a good spot for us to fade him. In his two appearances at TPC Potomac, Fowler has shot a 70 in the first round each time.
Fowler enters this tournament in poor form as he has finished 40th or lower in six straight tournaments, posting a 70 or higher in the first round in all six outings. This season, Fowler ranks just 89th on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, 78th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 154th in Driving Accuracy.
I would not play this number any higher than 69.5.
Sergio Garcia: Round 1 Over 68.5 Strokes
TPC Potomac may offer some challenges for Garcia as his metrics suggest an early exit may be in store. This year, Garcia ranks just 84th on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, 189th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 120th in Driving Accuracy.
Garcia has shot a 69 or higher in 13 of his last 14 rounds, and I do not expect anything different this week. Following a good season last year, Garcia has regressed mightily as he currently ranks 111th in the FedEx Cup Standings.
I would play this total up to 69.5.
Russell Henley: Round 1 Under 69 Strokes
Currently 28th in the FedEx Cup Standings, Henley has been dialed in this season. Entering this tournament, Henley ranks sixth on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, first in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Driving Accuracy.
In his last tournament, Henley shot a 68 in the first round at the RBC Heritage. Henley has one career appearance at TPC Potomac and shot a 67 in the first round.
I would play this number down to 68.5.
