Russell Henley is in sole possession of first place and holds a dominant six-stroke lead (22-under) following the third round of the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba.
Now, we look forward to Sunday's fourth round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five PrizePicks flex plays for the fourth round of the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 10x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
For the 16th consecutive year, El Camaleon Golf Course at the Mayakoba Resort in Playa del Carmen, Mexico is hosting this event. Looking at the top of previous leaderboards, the metrics that indicate the biggest likelihood of success at this course include SG: Putting and Greens in Regulation percentage (GIR%).
A shorter course, El Camaleon is a par-71, 7,034-yard track that benefits strong green players. After going 4-1 Saturday, we are going back to the well on the four winners and replacing the missed Scottie Scheffler prop.
World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba Round 4 PrizePicks Plays
Aaron Wise: Round 4 Under 67.5 Strokes
We are going to be backing a few golfers on Sunday, starting with Aaron Wise, who is T41 at 8-under. After shooting a 67 in two of the first three rounds, we should expect Wise to continue his strong play on Sunday.
There is no ShotLink data available for this event, which means knowledge of golfers’ styles and metrics from past events/seasons will be the primary way we handicap this tournament. On TOUR this season, Wise ranks 19th in SG: Putting and 21st in GIR%.
Wise enters this tournament in great form as he has made seven straight cuts dating back to last season. This season, he is two-for-two on made cuts, including his sixth-place finish at THE CJ CUP in South Carolina.
At El Camaleon, he has made four of the past five cuts, with all three of the previously made cuts resulting in T15 finishes. In 2020, Wise finished in second place at this tournament.
I would play this total down to 67.
Seamus Power: Round 4 Under 67.5 Strokes
Another golfer we are backing in the fourth round is Seamus Power, who is in fourth place at 15-under after a terrific Saturday.
After shooting a 67 or lower in two of the first three rounds, we should expect Power to keep it going on Sunday. Power is off to a strong start this season and has made three of four cuts. He’s also coming directly off his victory at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship.
On TOUR this season, he ranks 12th in SG: Putting. On TOUR last season, he ranked 40th in SG: Putting and 27th in GIR%.
Power has played well at El Camaleon as he finished 11th last season and 28th in 2016. Power has now shot a 67 or better in four of his past six rounds at this course.
I would play this number down to 67.
Collin Morikawa: Round 4 Over 10 Fairways Hit
We are also going to back a couple of golfers off the tee box on Sunday, starting with Collin Morikawa, who is T16 at 11-under.
Part of his good scoring this week is the direct result of an accurate driver. Morikawa is averaging north of 10 fairways hit through the first three rounds and we should expect him to keep it going Sunday.
On TOUR this season, Morikawa ranks eighth in driving accuracy percentage. Last year, he finished 29th in driving accuracy percentage at an excellent 65.3%.
I would not play this total higher than 10.
Matt Kuchar: Round 4 Over 8.5 Fairways Hit
The other golfer we are backing off the tee box is Matt Kuchar. Entering the fourth round, Kuchar is T35 at 9-under and is averaging under eight fairways hit per round.
Despite a poor start to the week off the tee box, positive regression hit for Kuchar on Saturday and should continue to do so on Sunday. Last year at El Camaleon, he averaged over 10 fairways hit on his way to a T22 finish.
Kuchar’s history of excellent driver play should play into this expected positive regression. On TOUR this season, Kuchar ranks 37th in driving accuracy percentage.
Last year, he finished 50th in driving accuracy (63.5%).
I would not play this number higher than 8.5.
Beau Hossler: Round 4 Under 7.5 Fairways Hit
We are also fading one golfer, Beau Hossler, off the tee box on Sunday. Hossler is T50 at 6-under and averaging under eight fairways hit per round.
Although he hit 10 fairways in the first round, regression unsurprisingly hit Hossler's driver's as he has failed to get over this total in each of the past two rounds. On TOUR this season, he ranks just 141st in driving accuracy percentage at a mere 55.5%.
This ranking is not an outlier based on a small sample size either as he finished last season ranked just 179th (52.1%) and the year before at 165th (56.3%). With a lack of accurate driving over the past three years, along with poor driving accuracy over the past two rounds, there is no reason to expect Hossler to improve Sunday.
I would not play this total lower than 7.5.
