Russell Henley's domination continued Saturday as he remained bogey-free and doubled his lead to six shots through three rounds. He's in full control of this event, but we know he has a troubled past when it comes to closing on Sundays, which could make for an interesting final round.
Henley shot a 6-under 65 to stretch out to 22-under on the week and will cruise into Sunday with his playing partners, Will Gordon and Patton Kizzire, sitting at 16-under. The last time we saw Henley in this position was when he had a five-shot lead going into the back nine at the Sony Open in Hawaii. Unfortunately, he stumbled and Hideki Matsuyama took full advantage and claimed the victory.
While Henley's history has to be in the back of his mind, I think this is the week he gets it done. Henley is simply playing too well to falter to the point of giving up a six-shot lead. I'm not going to chase any outrights behind him and will instead look for a couple of other spots for my best bets heading into Round 4.
Best Bets
Seamus Power +400 without Russell Henley (BetMGM)
You know it's a pretty unsurmountable situation when the books start offering a market without the current leader. I'll take it as I have been following Seamus Power pretty closely this week and he seems to be taking a step forward off of his win, rather than having any sort of hangover.
He's had a solid game throughout the week and really put it all together with an 8-under 63 on Saturday. I don't expect him to slow down on Sunday and in this market, I want players outside of the final group. Those guys will be focused on what Henley is doing and I think they could get a bit dejected if he starts to pull further away.
Meanwhile, a guy like Power will just focus on his game and not what is happening behind him. Power is third this week in driving accuracy and tied for second in greens-in-regulation, which is a strong combination for him to continue his climb.
Harry Higgs Top 10 +350 (BetMGM)
If you missed the Harry Higgs interview from yesterday, do yourself a favor and watch it. It's only two minutes long and it gives both great insight into what these pros go through in a given season, and also shows why he is such a likeable player.
Higgs talked about the ups and downs of his play and mindset, which led to his struggles last year. Higgs seems to have found the good side of it this week in Mexico as he has steadied his play and is just outside the top 10 going into Sunday.
I expect him to close the door on that top-10 finish as his play has been steadily strong throughout the week. It's nice that we have a solid number at a site like BetMGM, where all ties are paid in full. That gives us a nice cushion on a tight leaderboard for this finishing position.
