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For the longest time, a large portion of the betting and DFS communities have avoided the golfer that was coming off of a win. I still believe this may have merit for mid and lower tier golfers, but not for the elites.
Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and now Tony Finau have all rattled off back-to-back wins this season. As a supporter of Finau for many years, it's great to see him play with so much confidence while in contention. He not only picked up back-to-back wins, but did it in dominating fashion.
This week we head to North Carolina for the Wyndham Championship. If you were a fan of the birdie fest last week, then I have some bad news for you — this is one of the easiest courses on the PGA TOUR. With that said, Sedgefield Country Club requires a different skill set than what was need last week at the Detroit Golf Club.
This is a par-70 that measures only 7,131 yards. The fairways are narrow and there is a significant penalty for missing them. In fact, there's nearly a 30% difference in greens hit in regulation from the fairway and the rough. With five of the last six winners finishing at 20-under par or better, golfers will need to keep it in the fairway in order to give themselves birdie looks.
Kevin Kisner said it best when he noted that he loved the course because everyone is forced to play from the same spots in the fairway. This course is all about being in position off the tee, which should take away the biggest weapon for the bombers (at least on most of the holes). The greens here are easy to hit (second easiest of the 42 courses in my database) and when that's the case, the event tends to turn into a putting contest. Loading up on good Bermuda putters is an angle that I will be taking this week.
Favorite Bet: Russell Henley +2500 (WynnBet)
Henley hasn't had the best summer of golf, but came alive last week in Detroit. He gained 11 strokes tee to green and finished in the top 10 despite losing two strokes putting. He now returns to a course where he's posted back-to-back top 10s. Throughout his career, he's had three specific strengths — hitting fairways, approach play, and bermuda putting. If you didn't read my course preview above, that's essentially the exact trio that I am looking for when it comes to picking a winner.
Favorite Longshot: Justin Rose +5000 (BetRivers)
Rose won't be a popular pick this week because he's not too popular stateside and because the last time we saw him, he was a late withdrawal from the Open Championship. However, he's the best in this field when it comes to proximity from 125-175 yards and he finished T10 here last season. While he's done enough to secure his tour card for next season, he needs to make some noise over the next two weeks if he wants to advance far into the FedExCup Playoffs.
Contrarian DFS Play: Brendon Todd $7,500 DK / $9,400 FD
While Todd doesn't check all of the boxes that I am looking for, he comes very close. He is top five in this field in driving accuracy and in strokes gained putting. Again, if you can hit fairways and make putts, you'll likely have success at Sedgefield. He has always performed his best on shorter Par 70 courses and he finished T10 here last year. His last three events haven't been anything to write home about, but before that he finished T13 at the Canadian Open and third at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
If you ever have any questions or just want to chat about golf, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter: @RG_Notorious
