We had an unceremonious ending to Saturday as the third round was suspended until Sunday morning due to inclement weather. This means that many of our third round PrizePicks plays have not yet been completed/graded, but that doesn't prevent us from looking forward to the fourth round on Sunday afternoon.
Below, I give out my five PrizePicks flex plays for the fourth round of the 2022 Wyndham Championship.
For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts. Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 10x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
PrizePicks Plays
Russell Henley: Round 4 Under 67 Strokes
As mentioned in Saturday's article, the three most important metrics at Sedgefield Country Club are SG: Approach the Green, SG: Tee-to-Green and Greens in Regulation Percentage (GIR%). Based on these metrics, it is no surprise Henley finds himself T5 at 10-under par.
On TOUR this season, Henley ranks second in SG: Approach-the-Green, 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green, and sixth in GIR%. Shooting a 67 in each of the first two rounds, Henley was on his way to another under in the third round as he shot a 33 on the front nine before play was suspended.
Assuming Henley takes care of business on the back nine, I would not be shocked if he goes under the total for the fourth straight round on Sunday. Amongst the remaining field, Henley ranks seventh in SG: Approach-the-Green, third in SG: Tee-to-Green and eighth in GIR%.
I would not play this total lower than 67.
Will Zalatoris: Round 4 Under 67 Strokes
One of the few golfers to finish the third round on Saturday, Zalatoris shot a 66 to go under this total for the second straight day. A big change occurred for Zalatoris on Friday as he fired his caddy mid-round, which apparently ended up being a good decision as his game improved immediately upon doing so.
After successfully hitting this prop in the third round, we are going back to the well. On TOUR this season, Zalatrois ranks first in SG: Approach-the-Green, second in SG: Tee-to-Green and ninth in GIR%.
As is usually the case for Zalatoris, his putter is the one club holding him back as he ranks 37th amongst the remaining field in SG: Putting. However, his iron game has been sharper as he ranks inside the top-25 in both SG: Approach-the-Green and SG: Tee-to-Green.
I expect that to improve on Sunday and Zalatoris will most likely bag yet another top-10 finish.
I would play this number down to 66.5.
Tyrrell Hatton: Round 4 Over 67.5 Strokes
Another play we are repeating is Hatton's under. While this play has not successfully hit for the third round yet, he was at even-par with just five holes remaining.
He has gone -1 through those five holes in each of the first two rounds, so it is safe to say he will most likely get over his total in the third round. I expect this trend to continue into the fourth round as well.
Regression was likely for Hatton at this course over the weekend as his iron play was outstanding through the first two rounds, ranking inside the top-30 in both SG: Approach-the-Green and SG: Tee-to-Green. However, on TOUR this season, Hatton ranks just 111th and 80th, respectively, in those two metrics.
That regression did hit in the third round — barring a crazy final stretch of holes for Hatton — and will likely hit again in the fourth round.
I would play this total up to 68.
Si Woo Kim: Round 4 Under 68 Strokes
Another golfer who was fortunate enough to complete his round on Saturday was Kim, who is T66 at 1-under par. Despite not breaking this total in any of the first three rounds, I think positive regression is likely for Kim on Sunday.
Like Zalatoris, the one club holding Kim back is his putter as he ranks just 85th amongst the remaining field in SG: Putting. However, he also ranks 13th in SG: Approach-the-Green and 31st in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Assuming he starts to get a few putts to drop, his score will improve.
I would not play this number lower than 68.
J.T. Poston: Round 4 Under 8.5 Fairways Hit
While Poston has two holes to complete on Sunday morning for the third round, he would need to hit both fairways to get over his total. He has not hit the fairway on 18 in either of the first two rounds, so it is safe to assume Poston will not get over that total.
I expect this trend to continue into the fourth round as well. His driver just has not been consistent throughout this tournament and quite frankly has not been consistent this season as a whole.
Ranking just 79th on TOUR in Driving Accuracy, I am not sure positive regression is something we have to worry too much about for Poston in the fourth round. To hit nine fairways, Poston would have to eclipse a hit percentage of 64%, which is two points higher than his season average.
Add that to the fact that his driver has been particularly inconsistent this week and it's clear why I don't think he will hit nine fairways on Sunday.
I would not play this total lower than 8.5.
