The PGA TOUR season rolls on with the first tournament outside of the United States this week as we head to Chiba, Japan for the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club.
The PGA TOUR has played at Narashino Country Club twice before in 2019 and 2021, yielding two high-profile winners and elite ball strikers with Tiger Woods and Hideki Matsuyama winning those events. With seven of the top 20 players in the Official World Golf Rankings in the field this week, another star could emerge victorious this week in the best field of the PGA TOUR's fall swing thus far.
Our GolfBet analysts love the players near the top of the odds board this week, and they have five outright picks for you to consider below. We'll be looking to build on momentum from last week's best bets article after Matt Vincenzi hit on Tom Kim to win the Shriners Children's Open at +2200.
Collin Morikawa +1600 (DraftKings)
Chris Murphy: There were a lot of storylines that came about during the Presidents Cup, but one that stuck with me was from Collin Morikawa, who stated that his patented cut is "definitely back." I was never one who needed a reason to keep chasing that next Morikawa win, but that will certainly put me over the top across his next few events.
This week, he gets a ball striking course where hitting greens at a high clip is the most important stat, and with the best iron player in the world getting his swing back, I am happy to take my shot here at +1600 to start my card.
Sungjae Im +1200 (bet365)
Spencer Aguiar: In a week where I don't want a ton of exposure because of the no-cut nature and limited field size, I will post a rare outright wager as my top pick of the week. You could argue that the best pure value on the board would be Tommy Fleetwood at 35/1 on DraftKings, but I am going to roll with my model in this spot, which indicates Sungjae Im should be closer to 10/1 to take home this title.
Sure, we are speaking about under a two percent long-term edge that struggles to crack a 10% win equity threshold, but every point matters when placing these outright wagers, and Im's upside looks pronounced at this moment after posting five top-15 finishes in a row.
I will not have much exposure to this card because of the lack of trackable data once things begin on Wednesday night. This is one of the reasons I am willing to take a more aggressive approach by stacking the top of the board in a 78-man field and realizing there won't be the typical opportunities to jump into the mix when I can't get a hold of concrete data for the week. I’m viewing the ZOZO Championship as an essential off week, where I am going to take my shots in the outright market.
Collin Morikawa +1600 (DraftKings)
Matt Vincenzi: Collin Morikawa had a disappointing 2021-2022 season by his lofty standards. He had six top-five finishes but failed to truly thrust himself into contention on a consistent basis. The two-time major winner should be in store for a better season starting this week in Japan.
Morikawa has already shown he can play well in Japan, having finished in a tie for fourth at the Tokyo Olympics and seventh at Narashino Country Club last year. The 25-year-old is half-Japanese and has expressed in the past how special it is to play in front of the Japanese fans, who are some of the most passionate golf fans in the world.
Narashino Country Club is the type of track that Morikawa should continue to excel on. It is a difficult driving course, and his driving accuracy should keep him in the tight tree-lined fairways. He ranks second in the field in Good Drives Gained and will strategically plot around the golf course similar to how we saw Tiger Woods tackle the course in his 2019 win here.
While still great, Morikawa’s iron play was not quite at the level we’ve come to expect last season. He gained 5.2 strokes on approach at the TOUR Championship in his most recent start and went 2-1 at the Presidents Cup, easily taking down Mito Pereira in his Sunday singles match. If his iron play is indeed back to his previous form, Morikawa will have a strong chance to start his season off with a victory in Japan.
Tyrrell Hatton +2700 (FanDuel)
Derek Farnsworth: Like many in this article, I was tempted to bet Collin Morikawa or Sungjae Im up top this week. I ultimately decided to chase a few longer shots instead, so we’ll see if that comes back to haunt me.
My favorite bet of the week is Tyrrell Hatton, who is coming off of a down season on the PGA TOUR. He seems to be rounding into form now, making eight straight cuts and posting top 10s in his last two starts at the Italian Open and the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.
His statistics aren’t going to jump off the page, but he’s a golfer with an elite short game and he can catch fire with his irons. If he finds a good week on approach, he could certainly find himself in contention. For whatever reason, he excels in no-cut events. Over the last three years, no one in this field has gained more strokes per round (1.3) in these events, not even no-cut specialist Xander Schauffele.
Sepp Straka +5000 (DraftKings)
Landon Silinsky: Straka is one of the hottest players on the PGA TOUR right now. He got edged out by Mackenzie Hughes in a playoff to barely lose the Sanderson Farms, which marked his third top-seven finish across his previous four starts. Prior to that, he finished T7 at the TOUR Championship and was runner up at the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs in Memphis. Over this time period, he ranks No. 2 in SG: Total, trailing only the wunderkind Tom Kim.
Straka has been crushing in every facet of the game as well, ranking fifth in SG: Ball-Striking, 21st in SG: Around-the-Green and sixth in SG: Putting. He played this event last year and finished T66 but is a much different player now after winning the Honda Classic this past February. I like getting 50/1 here on an in-form PGA TOUR winner.
