Longtime fan-favorite Rickie Fowler is in first place and holds a one-stroke lead (14-under) following the third round of the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP.
Now, we look forward to Sunday's fourth and final round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five PrizePicks flex plays for the fourth round of the 2022 ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 12.5x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP Round 4 PrizePicks Plays
Tom Kim: Round 4 Under 67.5 Strokes
For the third time in this tournament's history, Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club hosts this event. Accordia is a par 70, 7,079-yard track designed by Shinya Fujita with a parkland layout with plenty of trees and lush grass.
Looking at the previous winners of this event tells us that iron play is essential for success at this course, particularly those who excel in SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Approach-the-Green and Greens in Regulation percentage (GIR%). We are going to be backing a few golfers on Sunday, starting with Tom Kim.
Entering the final round, Kim is T26 at 5-under. While he had a poor start to the week by his standards, Kim shot a 67 on Saturday as he returned to form.
Kim’s metrics did not qualify for an official ranking last season because he only played in 11 events. However, his iron play was phenomenal and, if he qualified, he would have ranked 26th in SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Approach-the-Green.
This season, he ranks third on TOUR in SG: Approach-the-Green, second in SG: Tee-to-Green, and first in GIR%. This phenomenal iron play led to his victory at the Shiners Children's Open last week.
Prior to his stellar performances at the Presidents Cup and Shriners Children's Open, Kim ended last season in tremendous form as he made eight straight cuts with five top-25 finishes and one win (Wyndham Championship).
On the brink of superstardom, look for the 20-year-old to be at the top of leaderboards numerous times this season.
I would play this number down to 67.
Sepp Straka: Round 4 Under 68 Strokes
Another golfer we are backing is Sepp Straka, who enters the fourth round T47 at 2-under. Shooting a 68 in each of his last two rounds, we shoot expect that score to be the ceiling on Sunday.
In his first tournament of the 2022-23 campaign, Straka finished second at the Sanderson Farms Championship due to a brilliant display of iron play. His iron game has propelled him to four straight made cuts and three top-10 finishes dating back to last season's playoffs.
At the Sanderson Farms Championship, he finished eighth in SG: Approach-the-Green, fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green and second in GIR%. His iron play has been strong once again this week as he ranks 18th in GIR%, and his score should continue to positively regress following a terrible start to the tournament on Thursday.
I would not play this total any lower than 68.
Tom Hoge: Round 4 Under 68 Strokes
The last golfer we are backing in the fourth round is Tom Hoge, who is T8 at 9-under. Hoge is typically a boom-or-bust player in tournaments because he is one of the best iron players in the world while the rest of his game is hit-or-miss.
That being said, It is not shocking that he has shot a 66 or lower in each of the last two rounds at a track that rewards strong iron players. Hoge has had an incredible start to the season, finishing T12 at the Fortinet Championship and T4 at the Shriners Children's Open.
Thus far in the 2022-23 TOUR season, he ranks fourth in SG: Approach-the-Green, ninth in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 17th in GIR%. Last year, he ranked 11th, 33rd, and 101st respectively in those three categories.
I suspect we will get another strong round from Hoge on Sunday, a guy who finished in the top-20 at last year's ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP as well.
I would play this number down to 67.5.
Corey Conners: Round 4 Over 68 Strokes
We are also fading a couple of golfers in the fourth round, starting with Corey Conners. Entering Sunday, Conners is T35 at 3-under.
In his lone start prior to this tournament in the 2022-23 season, Conners missed the cut at the Fortinet Championship, which was relatively shocking given the water-downed field he was competing against. The biggest reason for the disappointing outing was his terrible iron play.
On TOUR this year, he ranks just 98th in SG: Approach-the-Green and 157th in SG: Tee-to-Green. A typically strong iron player, I think he will find positive regression soon but perhaps not this week.
Through the first three rounds of this tournament, he ranks just 64th in GIR%. With the irons continuing to struggle, we should expect a tough Sunday for the Canadian.
I would not play this total any higher than 68.
Chez Reavie: Round 4 Over 69.5 Strokes
The other golfer we are fading on Sunday is Chez Reavie, who is T61 at 1-over. If Conners has had a bad start to the season, then Reavie has had a really, really, really bad start.
Prior to this week, Reavie has missed the cut in all three of the tournaments he has played in this season. While every aspect of his game has been off, his iron play has been particularly concerning.
On TOUR, he ranks 169th in SG: Approach-the-Green, 161st in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 162nd in GIR%. Far out of contention this week, look for Reavie to have an unspirited performance on Sunday as he looks to just move on to the next tournament and attempt to figure out what is going wrong.
I would not play this number higher than 69.5.
