2023 3M Open Odds, Field: Cameron Young, Sungjae Im & Tony Finau Favored at TPC Twin Cities

2023 3M Open Odds

Odds via bet365

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The PGA Tour heads to Blaine, Minnesota for the 2023 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities following Brian Harman's runaway victory at The Open Championship. The 3M Open is the penultimate event in the PGA Tour's regular season before the FedExCup Playoffs begin in two weeks.

With only the top 70 on the FedExCup Points List reaching the playoffs, instead of 125 players this year, the 3M Open sets up as a crucial week for many golfers near that threshold who might need a few big weeks over the next fortnight.

Tony Finau got hot at this time last year in the first of consecutive victories at the 3M Open and Rocket Mortgage Classic, and he returns to Minnesota this week in defense of his title as the outright favorite at +1300 odds at open on Monday morning at bet365. As of Tuesday afternoon, Finau's odds have dropped to +1700 as he now has the third-shortest outright odds behind Cameron Young and Sungjae Im at +1500.

Finau is looking for momentum after consecutive missed cuts at The Open and the Travelers Championship, but he's comfortably in the FedExCup Playoffs at 10th in the current points list. Between his win in November at the Cadence Bank Houston Open and a T23 at the Wells Fargo Championship in May, Finau made 13 starts on Tour and finished in the top 31 in all 13, including two wins. In his six starts since then, Finau hasn't finished in the top 31 and has missed three cuts.

With the Utah native projected to be on the bubble by many for the United States Ryder Cup Team, this could be a pivotal week for him to potentially punch a ticket to Rome.

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While Finau is looking to find his form, Cameron Young has seemingly found his following a second consecutive top-10 finish with a T8 at The Open Championship. This was a much-needed boost for Young as he had made seven consecutive starts without a top-30 finish between the RBC Heritage in April and the Travelers Championship in June.

Coming off of one of his best tournaments in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach (ranking ninth in The Open field in SG: Approach at +1.78 per Data Golf), TPC Twin Cities sets up as a quality opportunity for the bombing Wake Forest product to capture his first PGA Tour victory this week. He has the second-shortest odds to win outright this week at +1500 at bet365.

Hideki Matsuyama opened on Monday morning at bet365 tied for the third-shortest outright odds at +1900. The 2021 Masters champion is just 56th on the FedExCup Points List, and he has some work left to make sure he advances to the TOUR Championship for the 10th consecutive year. He is coming off of a T13 finish at The Open and has a T7 at TPC Twin Cities in 2019.

Sungjae Im also opened at +1900 to win outright this week in Minnesota, but his odds have since shortened as of Monday afternoon to +1500. The South Korean has played the 3M Open twice before, finishing T15 in 2019 before finishing T2 in 2022 (three strokes behind Finau). Im tied for 20th at The Open and now has three top-30 finishes in his last four starts as he is rounding back into form. He sits at 35th in the FedExCup Points List as he is comfortably safe to make the playoffs.

Justin Thomas is one of those players who desperately needs a quality performance at the 3M Open as he sits outside of the projected FedExCup Playoffs field at 75th in the regular season points list. Thomas, who is coming off of a missed cut at The Open Championship, has finished in the top 50 just once in seven starts since the PGA Championship.

The Alabama product has never played in the 3M Open but is making his first appearance in a last-chance effort to improve his FedExCup position, and like Finau, make a case for his inclusion on the American Ryder Cup Team. He has the fifth-shortest odds to win this week at +2400 at bet365 as of Monday morning.

Course Preview

TPC Twin Cities is a 7,431-yard par-71 with three par-5s, four par-3s and 11 par-4s. The course features Bentgrass greens, fairways and tees, with the putting surfaces rolling at a 12 on the stimpmeter. The four-inch rough is a mix of bentgrass and fescue, but the bigger penalty for missing fairways this week is water, with wet penalty areas featured on 15 holes.

Arnold Palmer designed TPC Twin Cities in 2000 with Minnesota native Tom Lehman serving as the PGA Tour player consultant. Steve Wenzloff completed a renovation in 2018 which featured new bunkers and tees along with narrowed fairways.

While bombers off the tee such as Tony Finau, Cameron Champ and Matthew Wolff have all won 3M Opens in the tournament's four-year history, TPC Twin Cities has actually favored accuracy over distance off the tee. Over the last three 3M Opens, driving distance has been significantly less correlated with SG: Total while driving accuracy has seen an uptick in SG: Total correlation.

With water in play on most holes, SG: Off the Tee has been more correlated with SG: Total at TPC Twin Cities in each of the last three years. On the other hand, SG: Around the Green has been less important in Minnesota than at the average PGA Tour event.

Past Winners

Finau and Cameron Champ are the only past champions in the field for this week's 3M Open.

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