After a Brian Harman runaway at The Open Championship, we now turn our attention to our outright picks for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. This is the time of year when golfers are battling for position for the PGA Tour's FedExCup Playoffs.
Only the top 70 golfers in the FedExCup standings will make it into the first playoff event at TPC Southwind, so the next two weeks are the last chance to make up some ground (looking at you Justin Thomas).
This will be the fifth edition of the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. The course is a par-71 that measures 7,431 yards, and it reminds me a lot of Florida golf, as 15 of the 18 holes feature water hazards.
While we can expect the 3M Open winning score to be around 20-under par, TPC Twin Cities has actually been one of the 25 toughest courses on the PGA Tour each of the last three seasons. There will be plenty of birdies and eagles this week, but those will be accompanied by plenty of of bogeys and double bogeys.
The fairways here are rather generous, averaging close to 35 yards wide in the landing areas. While we've seen bombers play well at the 3M Open in the past, distance is only a premium at this course if golfers can hit it straight. In addition to all of the water hazards, TPC Twin Cities features thick four-inch rough. Rather than focusing on raw distance, I am favoring Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Total Driving this week.
Ball-Striking is a huge premium on this course. Most birdie-fests turn into a putting contest because everyone is hitting greens in regulation, but that's not the case at TPC Twin Cities. If you don't hit the ball well, you aren't going to have birdie opportunities.
For that reason, I'm willing to give a longer look to poor putters if they excel off the tee and on approach. Tony Finau and Cameron Champ putted well here the years they won, but they aren't exactly the best putters on tour.
3M Open Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Approach Proximity from 125-200 yards
- Total Driving
- Bogey Avoidance
- Strokes Gained: Putting (with an emphasis on Bentgrass splits)
3M Open Outright Picks
Cameron Young +1600 (FanDuel)
There's a good chance I would have laughed at the idea of betting Cameron Young at +1600 a few weeks ago, but he is coming off of The Open Championship where he was first in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Strokes Gained: Approach. He gained a ridiculous 17 strokes Ball-Striking, which was the best in the field by nearly six strokes.
Prior to that, he finished T6 at the John Deere Classic, so he's clearly found something in his game.
Cameron Young is elite off the tee and first in the field in proximity from 125-200 yards. He has never played this event before, but course history isn't as important at TPC Twin Cities as it is at most PGA Tour venues. His first win is coming, and it could easily happen this week in this relatively weak field.
Pick: Cameron Young Outright +1600 |
Lucas Glover +5000 (FanDuel)
Much like Young, Lucas Glover was having a bad season until his last few events. He switched his putter to the broomstick at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and all of a sudden, he has rattled off three straight top-six finishes.
He's always been a good ball-striker, so the fact that he has gained eight strokes on approach in his last three events is noteworthy. He's also gained at least four strokes on approach in four of his last five starts, so all parts of his game are firing at the moment.
This is a fair outright number given his form and the fact that he finished T7 at the 2019 3M Open. Perhaps he can learn from being in contention the last few weeks.
Pick: Lucas Glover Outright +5000 |
Taylor Pendrith +7000 (FanDuel)
All three of my bets this week have followed a similar path this year. They all got off to slow starts and are all turning it on here in the summer.
Taylor Pendrith went on an incredible run last year and played his way onto the Presidents Cup team. After months of struggling, he has finished T14 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and T6 at the Barbasol Championship the last few weeks where he gained over 15 strokes ball-striking.
The driver has always been one of his best weapons, and that can pay big dividends on this course.
Pick: Taylor Pendrith Outright +7000 |
Thanks for reading, and let's have ourselves a week!
