Tournament director Hollis Cavner hit the "birdies and train wrecks" answer on the head with his description of TPC Twin Cities, though the implosions were light for most in the morning, when the venue played with little heat or wind.
There are 21 players who still need to complete their first round on Friday, but it is shaping up to be a marginal advantage for those who started in the morning/late wave on Thursday. The same should be true Friday as the overnight rain should soften the course.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Buy
Stephan Jaeger
What would a 2023 first-round be for Stephan Jaeger if he didn't underachieve?
The 34-year-old has flirted with greatness throughout the season, but has continuously fallen short because of a putter that can't seem to reach Jaeger's menial projections during some of his best ball-striking rounds.
We saw that situation occur Thursday as Jaeger gained 2.66 shots with his driver and irons, but gave it all away with the putter (-3.44 shots).
It is hard to project success from that portion of Jaeger's game after getting burned so many times, but positive regression is expected from the golfer my model believes should be in eighth place.
Of the past 113 tournaments I have tracked, eight had a winner come from eight (or more) shots off the pace. So, there is value if you want to throw a dart and hope for the best on Jaeger's 300/1 price.
If that route is too rich for your blood, he also shows value in the DFS and head-to-head markets.
Taylor Pendrith
Taylor Pendrith was projected as a top-25 commodity in my model pre-event because his combination of distance + weighted GIR graded better than just about any option in the field.
The volatility with the putter was always going to be the question mark, but Pendrith was poor by even his own standards Thursday and lost 2.90 shots.
I couldn't get there with an outright bet because he will get the marginally worse end of the course in the afternoon, but I do believe there could be value in the head-to-head sector versus other golfers teeing it up around his start time.
Sell
Taylor Montgomery
We just talked about two horrific putters and will now discuss one of the better flat stick players on tour. However, putting metrics will only go so far when water surrounds 15 holes.
Taylor Montgomery, according to my model, was Thursday's largest overachiever as he surpassed his ball striking by 92 positions on the leaderboard. When we add that to the 2.66-shot inflation he received in projected performance versus his expected baseline score, we get a golfer who may struggle Friday.
