Updated 2023 American Express Odds, Expert Picks: Best Bets for Patrick Cantlay, Jason Day, More

The PGA Tour is back from Hawaii, and now we have 2023 American Express odds to examine.

We have a stacked field this week in the Palm Desert, with five of the top-seven players in the world taking part in the action this week. Jon Rahm is the betting favorite, followed closely by Scottie Scheffler.

Check out our best bets for the 2023 American Express below, including plays on Patrick Cantlay, Jason Day and more.

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2022 American Express Picks

Favorite We’re Backing

Jason Sobel: Sahith Theegala

Chris Murphy: Taylor Montgomery

Matt Vincenzi: Patrick Cantlay

Spencer Aguiar: Scottie Scheffler

Nick Bretwisch: Tony Finau

Pick: Scottie Scheffler +950

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Best Long Shot

Jason Sobel: Andrew Putnam

Chris Murphy: Andrew Putnam

Matt Vincenzi: Sahith Theegala

Spencer Aguiar: Taylor Pendrith

Nick Bretwisch: Taylor Moore

Biggest Bust

Jason Sobel: Xander Schauffele

Chris Murphy: Xander Schauffele

Matt Vincenzi: Cameron Young

Spencer Aguiar: Andrew Putnam

Nick Bretwisch: Sahith Theegala

Contrarian Player To Target

Jason Sobel: Jason Day

Chris Murphy: Lee Hodges

Matt Vincenzi: Justin Rose

Spencer Aguiar: Harris English

Nick Bretwisch: Jason Day

Pick: Justin Rose +9000

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Trend That Guides Your Betting Strategy

Jason Sobel: What we have this week is a convergence of push and pull, the proverbial immovable object meets an unstoppable force. Or something like that.

Alright, so maybe that’s too dramatic, but Palm Springs is notorious as the land of the long shots, with five of the last six winners coming from 50/1 or longer and three in the past decade so off the radar that they merely began those weeks as part of the field bets. And yet, this is arguably the best AmEx field we’ve ever seen – at least in the past quarter-century – with nine of the world’s top-20 and enough elite-level players to hinder any fever dreams about hitting another lottery ticket here.

Chris Murphy: There aren’t a lot of adjustments to be made week over week between the Sony Open and the American Express.

The skill set necessary for success is very similar this week in the desert as it was last week in Hawaii. I think that is why we see the trends that Matt notes below and as mentioned in this section last week, we want to favor the guys that have shook off some rust in tournament play already this year.

I’ll have a heavy lean to the guys that have played at least one of the first two weeks and especially towards those that played well at the Sony.

Matt Vincenzi: Twelve of the past 13 winners at The American Express have played in either the Sentry Tournament of Champions or Sony Open.

Spencer Aguiar: It's a problematic event to handicap when you look into the three-course rotational aspect and the Pro-am nature that means rounds can take over six hours to complete. None of that means we can't find an edge by doing our due diligence, but the lack of “Stat Tracker” at any venue that isn't the Stadium Course is a massive red flag when trying to pinpoint long-term data since the rollover predictability has been less pertinent over the years.

I took a basic approach of trying to mold all three venues into a classification of what can be easily interpreted (sub-7,200 yards, easy-scoring and par-five impact), but the statistical influence that I typically rely on will be tested at the American Express.

Nick Bretwisch: It’s a very tough week for my numbers to come up with a predictive formula for how to win this event. Obviously, we all know Jon Rahm’s thoughts on the “putting contest,” but I seem to care more about those who can hit it long and hit fairways. Don’t get me wrong, it’s important to make putts (it’s golf, putts are huge everywhere), but I want longer, accurate ball strikers.

Your Best Bet

Sobel: Andrew Putnam (+5000)

Even before his T-4 finish at the Sony, this was a spot I’d been targeting Putnam. I listed him as a potential OAD selection for this event in my annual analysis of options and even announced a recent mid-round pick in a season-long fantasy draft as, “I’ll take 2023 American Express champion Andrew Putnam.”

While I’ll admit that I would’ve preferred for him to do more of his damage at Waialae with the irons than wedges and putter, leading last week’s field with the flatstick should lead to more birdies this week, too. In his last five starts in Palm Springs, Putnam owns an average finish of 19.2, with nothing better than 10th but nothing worse than 34th. I like Putnam sprinkling this week, with an outright play offset by top-five, 10 and 20 tickets.

Pick: Andrew Putnam +5000

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Chris Murphy: Cameron Davis +5000 (BetMGM)

Cameron Davis is a player I expect to take a big step forward this season. He started to show some of that in the fall, as he began to steady some of his volatility, and this is an event where I could see him making a statement early in the year.

Davis finished with a 68-67 weekend at the Sony as he and many others shook the rust off from a long break. I think he’ll come out even sharper this week at the American Express, a tournament at which he finished third in 2021.

Due to the strength of the field at the top, we get a nice price on Davis this week. He is one where if things go as I expect this season, we may look back and think of what a steal this price is for a player that has shown to have all the tools to compete in this type of setup. I’m in on the Aussie at +5000 on BetMGM this week.

Matt Vincenzi: Patrick Cantlay +1100

It’s somewhat rare that I recommend betting players this close to the top of the odds board, but when I do it’s because I feel strongly about their ability to get deep into contention in that particular week. Patrick Cantlay at The American Express is a spot where I feel extremely confident.

Cantlay has been outstanding at The American Express throughout his career. In his past three starts at the event, he’s finished ninth, second and ninth, and he ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on the three courses utilized for the event. Since the start of 2016, Cantlay ranks first in birdies or better per round at the tournament (6.42).

Cantlay also excels on Pete Dye tracks. In his past 36 rounds on Dye-designed courses, the 30-year-old ranks first in the field. With two of the four rounds being played at the PGA West Stadium course, it’s no surprise that Cantlay has been excellent at the event.

There are five of the top seven players in the world teeing it up this week. Based on his ability to get scorching hot with the putter and tear apart easy tracks, I believe Cantlay has the best shot of them all to emerge victorious on Sunday.

Pick: Patrick Cantlay +950

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Spencer Aguiar: Si Woo Kim +100 over Andrew Putnam (DraftKings)

It is one of those situations where course history and current form are getting enhanced on particular golfers, and while Andrew Putnam's streak of 13 consecutive made cuts and five straight top-35 finishes at the American Express shouldn't go unnoticed, I believe it has propelled him too far up the board and into a range he doesn't belong.

Putnam's long-term metrics have a plethora of questionable returns when we dive into them a little deeper, and even though he does experience a positive trajectory for safety and playability, especially on his two appearances at La Quinta and The Nicklaus Tournament Course, I’m treating this event as if it were a no-cut weekend and placing a little more emphasis on how his projected output declines at the venue he would have to play twice if he does make the final round.

Putnam's recalculated total driving in my model of 87th is worrisome when we look at the nine holes that will have water, and the remeasured proximity ranks add an extra wrinkle to the equation (a category he places 113th overall). All of that makes me believe Putnam's expectations are being overvalued, and the reverse nature of bettors not wanting to go back to a player that won last week only further heightened my appeal to place this wager.

Nick Bretwisch: Jason Day — Top 40 (+125, FanDuel)

Day is a bit of a fanboy play for me, but my numbers grade him as the 19th overall golfer in this event due to the overall ball striking, distance and accuracy. Day is one of the best Pete Dye course players in the world and comes into the event with plenty of rest and a lot of confidence as he’s gained strokes both on approach and off the tee in seven of his last nine events. I’ll take the plus number in a market my numbers would have closer to -110.

Pick: Jason Day T40

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