The American Express is one of the weeks each season where we know it's going to take a low score to win. We got a treat this time around with so many of the top 15 players in the world teeing it up, and many of them showed up in a big way. Jon Rahm leads that bunch and is tied at the top at 23-under through three rounds.
Rahm is joined at the top by Davis Thompson who "took a step back" on Saturday when he finally had a round without multiple eagles. Thompson's five eagles in the first two days vaulted him to the top of the leaderboard and he remained there after the third round, though he now has company.
Those two have separated themselves going into the final round on the Stadium Course as they have a four-shot edge over J.T. Poston. It'll be hard to play anyone but Rahm as he goes for his second win in two attempts in 2023. With limited data on just one course for week, it's tough to buy much for Sunday. Let's take a look at some markets that may provide value in the final round.
Best Bets for Round 4
I could sit here and write a bunch of words about how someone can beat Jon Rahm on Sunday, and while anything can happen, I'd be pretty surprised if it did. Rahm is playing at a level we expected from him last year, but it's hard to see anyone not named Davis Thompson giving the Spaniard much trouble in the final round. Frankly, I'll take -175 in this spot because I'm not sure Thompson is ready to go toe-to-toe with Rahm for the title, though I do believe in Thompson's talent.
Rahm gained more than three and a half shots on the field tee-to-green in his Saturday round. The most encouraging part of that is he gained 2.93 of those on approach. If he keeps that going Sunday, he'll be hard to beat as I expect he'll putt better than just field average in the final round.
Taylor Montgomery was one of my favorite plays to start the week and while he won't win, he has certainly played well. He sits T5, but has a bunch of company in that position, leaving him with plus-money odds to finish inside the top 5 this week. I'll bite on that +175 at BetMGM, where all ties are paid in full. I think Montgomery closes out another week with a strong finish.
The former UNLV Rebel is quickly showing his talent on TOUR and it is often accompanied by sharp putting. He gained 2.61 shots on the field with his putter on the Stadium Course in his first round and I'll look for that hot flat stick to carry him to another top finish on Sunday.
This is a Sunday where I don't really want to extend my exposure as I think the favorite is the most likely to win and there aren't many close enough to give him much competition. I'll instead go to an alternate market where top American could get interesting if Thompson really presses in his opportunity to win his first tournament on TOUR. There is certainly a scenario where he pushes the envelope or simply has a tough round under the pressure and falls out of position for runner-up. I'd be willing to take a shot on someone like Scottie Scheffler going really low and although it may not be enough to win, it could pay off at +1000 in this market.
