We have one more stop on the PGA Tour before our second major of 2023. Our staff has analyzed the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson odds board and found its favorite picks.
Scottie Scheffler sits atop any look at the AT&T Byron Nelson odds, especially with Jordan Spieth withdrawing on Monday due to a wrist injury. DataGolf gives Scheffler a 23.9% chance of winning this week, but that number was higher two weeks ago at the Mexico Open for Jon Rahm, who was not victorious.
Our staff of golf betting analysts breaks down the golfers it's backing for big weeks at TPC Craig Ranch. Check out our guys' AT&T Byron Nelson picks and previews below.
Favorites We’re Backing
- Jason Sobel: Seamus Power
- Chris Murphy: Tom Kim
- Matt Vincenzi: Matt Kuchar
- Spencer Aguiar: Adam Scott
- Nick Bretwisch: Hideki Matsuyama
Best Long Shot
- Sobel: Jimmy Walker
- Murphy: Matthew NeSmith
- Vincenzi: Sam Stevens
- Aguiar: Scott Stallings
- Bretwisch: Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Biggest Bust
- Sobel: Hideki Matsuyama
- Murphy: Hideki Matsuyama
- Vincenzi: Scottie Scheffler
- Aguiar: Dylan Wu (More for DFS)
- Bretwisch: Taylor Montgomery
Contrarian Player To Target
- Sobel: Justin Suh
- Murphy: Patton Kizzire
- Vincenzi: Seamus Power
- Aguiar: Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Bretwisch: Davis Thompson
Trend That Guides Your Betting Strategy
Sobel: How’s this for a trend: Two years ago, K.H. Lee won the first-ever edition of this tournament that was played at TPC Craig Ranch, shooting 25-under in the process. Last year, Lee won again, posting a 26-under total. I guess if we’re going strictly on trends, we should expect another Lee victory at 27-under this week. But as Michael Kim, who lives nearby and practices a lot at this course, told me Monday, “I always thought this was a bomber’s course, but K.H. Lee keeps winning and he’s not a bomber, so I don’t know.”
One thing is for sure, though: This week’s winner will need to go super-low once again.
Murphy: Birdies, birdies and more birdies, plus maybe some eagles. This thing us a full-on birdie-fest and there are just some players in form that I can’t picture winning at 26-under. I’ll instead take a shot on the guys that have been known to show up a bit more in easier scoring events and look for them to contend.
Aguiar: One of the significant changes this season is that the par-five 12th has been converted into a lengthy par-four that will stretch just under 500 yards. Minor disparities likely occur there since you turn a hole from being one of the easiest on the course to one of the more challenging, but there is still a reason this has been a venue that K.H. Lee has won by shooting 26-under and 25-under over the past two seasons.
All of that shows that courses without danger will always present this birdie-fest outcome, even when 34.7% of second shots occur from over 200 yards – a total that is 11.8% higher than average.
Bretwisch: This is going to be one of our first birdie-fests of the spring that will see me target quality mid- and long-iron players who have an above-average birdie-or-better percentage, as well as quality bentgrass putting metrics. With a very weak field, it’s hard to find any value in betting the top of the board pre-tournament, so my card will be filled with five or six golfers who I have perceived value on in the outright market and maybe a matchup or two.
2023 AT&T Byron Nelson Picks
Sobel: Seamus Power +4400 (FanDuel)
There are weeks when I want to play multiple guys with short odds, just because it’s so difficult to choose between ‘em. This ain’t one of those weeks. The game’s best players often insist that they want their games to peak four times each year, so I should remind you that next week is one of those times, as they’ll all travel to Oak Hill for the PGA Championship.
Now, we shouldn’t be so naïve as to believe one of the elite players in this field doesn’t want to play well before a major championship, but there’s absolutely a sense for some – even if it’s some deep-seated internal one – that they’re trying to leave a little gas in the tank. Over the last three years, winners of a tournament the week before a major include Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth and Xander Schauffele, but this list also includes just as many players such as Garrick Higgo, Lucas Glover and J.J. Spaun. Maybe I’m simply trying to talk myself out of Scottie Scheffler at +350 this week, but there are just too many variables for me to chase a short number on this card.
Instead, I’ll start things out with Power, whose little mini-slump potentially ended with a T-18 finish at the Wells Fargo Championship this past weekend. He makes a lot of birdies (23rd in birdie average this season) and putts very well (26th in strokes gained putting), which is a combo I’d like to attack here. Throw in finishes of T9 and T17 at TPC Craig Ranch with a scoring average of 67.50 and there’s a lot to like about the Irishman – not the least of which is playing him as the shortest price on your card should allow you to take a few more chances on some longshots.
Pick: Seamus Power +4400 |
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Murphy: Min Woo Lee +4400 (FanDuel)
There have been so many withdrawals this week with many players who were originally in the field after finding out they have a ticket to next week’s PGA Championship. We have lost some of the bulk of this field, and it has tanked odds of many guys I would have considered when odds dropped with the full field.
Min Woo Lee is one of the players that hasn’t been overly affected on the odds board at FanDuel, where you can still get him at +4400.
Lee is one of those players I will target more at tournaments that are going to require some low scores each day to get a win. Both of his wins to date on the DP World Tour have required that he fire rounds in the 60s each day and bumped up against the 20-under number. He will need a handful more than that this week, but he is someone who has shown he belongs on this TOUR as he contended for The Players back in March and I think we see his name in contention this weekend as well.
As a little bonus, Lee will also be one of my favorites in the First Round Leader market on Thursday.
Pick: Min Woo Lee +4400 |
Vincenzi: Michael Kim +8000 (BetMGM)
K.H. Lee, who was born in Seoul, South Korea, has won in back-to-back years at the AT&T Byron Nelson. This year, I believe another golfer who hails from Seoul has a strong chance to get into contention at TPC Craig Ranch.
Michael Kim, who was born in South Korea but raised in California, has a golf pedigree that is difficult for the majority of PGA Tour players to match. The 29-year-old is a former Haskins Award winner and was the first player from Cal to win the award in 43 years. After winning the award as a sophomore, Kim went on to win the Nicklaus Award and compete on the victorious 2013 Walker Cup team alongside Justin Thomas and Max Homa, both of whom he was ranked higher than.
Since then, Kim’s career has seen plenty of ups and downs. However, he has won a PGA Tour event. Michael dominated the 2018 John Deere Classic, getting to -27, proving that he can keep pace in a birdie-fest.
After struggling and making his way back to the PGA Tour, the former college star has begun to show glimpses of what made him such a promising young player. He finished seventh last week at the Wells Fargo Championship and gained 7.2 strokes ball striking, which is the most he’s gained in his career.
The now-Texas native has worked incredibly hard to get back to his current form, and he has a chance to remind the golf world who he is this week in McKinney.
Aguiar: Scott Stallings +7000 (FanDuel)
I rarely jump to the outright market for these wagers, but without a head-to-head play on my card this week, let's target Scott Stallings.
There are many ways to consider playing Stallings in other markets (+275 for a T20 on BetRivers would be another quality option), but it is hard for me to ignore a profile with numerous high-end outputs and not want to gain exposure in some fashion.
Stallings ranked second in this field for expected Bentgrass scoring, helping to generate this outlook that yielded top 10 win equity returns at a price that placed him outside the top 25 names in this field. Add that to his eighth-place grade for overall scoring on all courses, and you should get a rather good idea that the ceiling might be higher than my model would typically believe on a generic track.
Pick: Scott Stallings +7000 |
Bretwisch: Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6500 (FanDuel)
Bezeuidenhout is priced differently throughout the market. He’s as long as 65-1 and as short as 45-1 at Las Vegas’ Circa Sportsbook. I love finding players with a significant gap among sportsbooks and take 70-1 on Bezuidenhout without hesitation (my price is proper at 54-1).
Bezeuidenhout is arguably the top bentgrass putter in this field and is coming into the event with the best ball-striking numbers he’s logged on the PGA Tour since the spring of 2020.
Pick: Christiaan Bezuidenhout |
