2023 AT&T Byron Nelson Odds: Seamus Power, Scott Stallings, Justin Suh Among Expert Picks

Before we get to my AT&T Byron Nelson picks, there was a relevant tournament on the DP World Tour this past week.

I’ll readily admit that I don’t often discuss the DP World Tour very much in this weekly space, but watching Adrian Meronk’s victory at the Italian Open this weekend should have us thinking big picture.

You see, the man nicknamed The Tall Pole — hey, what else would you call a guy who’s 6-foot-6 and from Poland? — won at Marco Simone Golf & CC, which will serve as the Ryder Cup host venue later this year. With victories already at the Irish Open and Australian Open over the past year, Meronk is making a very convincing case for being included on the European team. Don’t just take my word for it, either; even team captain Luke Donald was tweeting about it in the direct aftermath.

We’ll get to the picks for this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson shortly, but Meronk’s strong bid dovetails nicely with a topic I’ve been speaking about a lot lately on SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio — the makeup of this year’s U.S. roster.

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The way I see it, 10 of the 12 spots are nearly set in stone, even four months ahead of the actual festivities.

Whether by one of the six automatic qualifications or via wild-card selection, barring injury or prolonged slump, it’s difficult to envision any of these 10 players not making the trip to Rome: Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Max Homa, Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau, Sam Burns, Justin Thomas, Cameron Young and Collin Morikawa.

That leaves two open spots — and I can see these being the most hotly debated final spots that we’ve seen in years.

As of right now, no legal sportsbooks have odds on specific players to make the team, so we’re left to do our own handicapping here.

I’ll start with Kurt Kitayama and Wyndham Clark, the two non-superstar winners of designated events so far this season. If the powers-that-be are seeking giant killers, these guys have proven they can do it.

If we want experience, perhaps Harris English or Keegan Bradley or Matt Kuchar, each of whom has shown flashes of strong play this year, could provide it.

Chris Kirk or Taylor Moore for their impressive victories. Gary Woodland or Keith Mitchell for their driving abilities. Tom Hoge or Russell Henley for their ball-striking prowess. Sahith Theegala or Davis Riley for their youth and talent.

Billy Horschel and Kevin Kisner are the proverbial gritty bulldogs that you’d like to see in the team format, though each has performed well below expectations this year.

Or Rickie Fowler, who’s been piling up top-20 results — and let’s remember, he’s received some favorable consideration in the past, perhaps for a combination of name recognition and solid play.

And then, of course, there are the X-factors.

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While LIV players have been disqualified from being a part of the European roster, that’s not the case for the U.S. side. Zach Johnson, the team captain, has been notably pro-PGA Tour, as has his cadre of assistants, but would he push aside those differences to add a player such as Dustin Johnson? Or Brooks Koepka? Or, in the wildest possible scenario … Phil Mickelson?!

The whole situation is fascinating, with those first 10 roster spots seemingly locked up, while the final two might have a few dozen contenders still on the list.

Expect this to continue as an underlying subplot this summer as we gradually inch toward this year’s competition.

Maybe someone will further separate themselves this week at TPC Craig Ranch, which will host the Nelson for a third consecutive year.

If you’re having trouble differentiating between the last two editions of this tournament, that’s because they’ve looked exceedingly similar, at least at the eventual top of the leaderboard, as K.H. Lee won two years ago at 25-under, then successfully defended his title last year with a winning total of 26-under.

If we’ve learned anything so far, it’s that players must go uncommonly low in order to even have a whiff of a title contention here. Let’s get to the picks, where this week might be less about whom we’re playing than whom we’re fading.

2023 AT&T Byron Nelson Picks

Outright Winner (short odds)

One player to win the tournament

Seamus Power (+4400)

There are weeks when I want to play multiple guys with short odds, just because it’s so difficult to choose between ‘em. This ain’t one of those weeks.

The game’s best players often insist that they want their games to peak four times each year, so I should remind you that next week is one of those times, as they’ll all travel to Oak Hill for the PGA Championship. Now, we shouldn’t be so naïve as to believe one of the elite players in this field doesn’t want to play well before a major championship, but there’s absolutely a sense for some – even if it’s some deep-seated internal one – that they’re trying to leave a little gas in the tank.

Over the last three years, winners of a tournament the week before a major include Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth and Xander Schauffele, but this list also includes just as many players such as Garrick Higgo, Lucas Glover and J.J. Spaun. Maybe I’m simply trying to talk myself out of Scottie Scheffler at +500 or Jordan Spieth at +1000 this week (Editor's Note: Jordan Spieth has since withdrawn from the AT&T Byron Nelson), but there are just too many variables for me to chase a short number on this card.

Instead, I’ll start things out with Power, whose little mini-slump potentially ended with a T18 finish at the Wells Fargo Championship this past weekend. He makes a lot of birdies (23rd in birdie average this season) and putts very well (26th in strokes gained putting), which is a combo I’d like to attack this week. Throw in finishes of T9 and T17 at TPC Craig Ranch with a scoring average of 67.50 and there’s a lot to like about the Irishman – not the least of which is playing him as the shortest price on your card should allow you to take a few more chances on some long shots.

Pick: Seamus Power +4400

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Outright Winner (Long odds)

One player to win the tournament

Justin Suh (+7500)

You know it’s a bad sign when you’re internally debating between Beau Hossler and Sam Ryder for this spot, then each of them WD before the week even starts.

I’ll gladly pivot to Suh, though, another player who fits the profile of what we’re looking for this week – one who isn’t afraid to step on the gas pedal and go low. There’s been plenty written about how Suh was “the other guy” who turned pro in the summer of ’19 alongside Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland and Matthew Wolff but didn’t make it big right away. He dealt with some injuries, then took a more normal progression to the PGA Tour than the other three, winning last season’s Korn Ferry Tour Championship to solidify his status.

While Suh's results have admittedly been a mixed bag – T5 at the Honda, T6 at the Players, but nothing inside the top 30 in his last four starts – Suh hasn’t missed a cut since early October, which shows he obviously belongs at this level. Again, this is a week where I’m taking a few chances on a few players with longer odds and Suh has some appeal at this number.

Pick: Justin Suh +7500

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Other OADers

Potential selections for one-and-done pools

Jason Day (+1600)

I really want some sort of Day investment this week – and I really don’t want any part of him at 16-1. I do think he fits the Clark profile of last week: One start after the entire world picked him and he disappointed, many of them jump off and he finds the winner’s circle.

Just the fact that he’s playing seems reason for optimism. Sure, Day has won this event and had two other top-fives in the past, but results of 51st and MC at TPC Craig Ranch would leave most other players of his pedigree pining for a week off before the next major. He’s back for a reason, and I’d like to think that reason is because the course suits him and he believes he’ll contend here.

I’m not ready to pay up to find out in the betting markets, but I really like Day as an OAD selection.

K.H. Lee (+2200)

Hey, you knew you’d see this name somewhere.

Much like with Day, I want no part of chasing this number, but it’s difficult to fully bypass a player who’s carded two eagles and 53 birdies in his last 144 holes on this golf course. And it just so happens he’s coming in on a little bit of a heater, posting a final-round 3-under 68 that tied for the second-lowest total at Quail Hollow on Sunday, en route to a T8 finish.

If you’re in a pool that doesn’t allow defending champions, you’re out of luck here. For others, this might be a situation of simply not overthinking it.

Michael Kim (+8000)

In the summer of 2018, Kim broke through at the John Deere Classic for his first career PGA Tour win, hardly a shocker from a talented up-and-comer who’d enjoyed a nice collegiate career at Cal. He immediately got into the next week’s Open Championship and finished T35, but then he didn’t post anything inside the top 60 in his remaining eight starts of the year.

No biggie, right? It’s happened to other players who have slumped a bit after that first career victory. But it continued the next year. In 2019, his only paychecks came at the Sentry TOC and CJ Cup, both of which were no-cut events. In 2020, he didn’t cash a single check, either MCing or WDing in every start.

Knowing that backstory, it’s so impressive that Kim has battled back to relevance at the highest level, making the cut in each of his last six starts, with a couple of top-10s mixed in, including a seventh-place finish at Quail Hollow this past weekend.

If you’re either fading the top of the board, have already used the big names or plan on saving them, it’s not a terrible idea to back a guy with plenty of momentum right now – and one who should sneak through with low ownership in bigger pools, offering some nice leverage for those trying to play catch-up at this point.

Top-Five

One player to finish top-five

Scott Stallings (+1400 for top-five)

There are plenty of players who have started paying attention to analytics more in the past few years, not only to understand where their game needs improvement but as a way to help plot their schedule throughout the season. That is the case for Stallings, who told me on “Hitting the Green” a few months ago that the Byron Nelson is one of those tourneys he’s put back on his calendar because he finds it fits his skillset.

Stallings was T3 two years ago and T25 last year, so there’s certainly something to this. On a week when I’ve got room on the card for a few more outrights, his 65-1 number has some value.

Top-10

One player to finish top-10

Jimmy Walker (+900 for top-10)

If Stallings has value at 65-1 outright, then Walker certainly has some at 110-1. After dealing with a lengthy illness and injury, the 2015 PGA Championship winner has found his game once again, with top-25 results in each of his last four starts. During that time, his driver has been about average, but he’s gained strokes with his irons, wedges and putters every single time, all of which should fit for this week.

I’ll have some Walker shares in OADs and DFS, as well.

Top-20

One player to finish top-20

Eric Cole (+320 for top-20)

The guy known as E.J. when he was growing up at West Orange CC in Winter Garden, Fla., posting numbers in the low-60s as a teenager, has really started to figure out PGA Tour life. Now 34, the rookie famously reached a playoff at the Honda and posted a top-five in Mexico just two weeks ago.

Top-30

One player to finish top-30

Harry Hall

If I asked you to name the best putters on the PGA Tour, Hall’s name probably wouldn’t be among those mentioned. Then again, perhaps neither would Maverick McNealy, Sam Ryder or Taylor Montgomery, the only three players ahead of Hall on the strokes gained putting list.

Hall, a rookie from England via UNLV who has been flying under the radar with four top-30s in his last six starts, should be primed for another solid result at this one.

Top-40

One player to finish top-40

Austin Smotherman

It hasn’t been a great year for Smotherman, but he did post a top-five finish two weeks ago at the Mexico Open and now returns to the Dallas area, where he played his college golf at SMU and still resides.

The numbers haven’t looked great lately, but I’m still a bit bullish long-term and he’s gained strokes with the flatstick in four straight starts, so this could be a place where he replicates last year’s T25 result.

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Scottie Scheffler

Alright, so I wasn’t going to make it through the entire preview without backing a single big-time player somewhere.

Perhaps the only thing more impressive than the ceiling Scheffler has displayed over the past year-plus is his unparalleled floor. He’s now finished top-12 in 12 straight starts and 14 of his last 15. Against an inferior field this week, it’s hard to believe he’ll break that string.

With plenty of options available further down the pricing scale, I don’t mind starting lineups with the best player in the field, then fitting five other names behind him.

DFS Mid-Tier

A medium-priced option for DFS lineups

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

My buddy Reid Fowler, formerly of DraftKings and now with Prime Video, has often spoken about the idea of “stacking” in a golf lineup. This concept is more readily applicable in football contests, where you can play a QB with two of his WRs, or baseball, where you can use back-to-back-back players in a batting order, but it can work for golf, as well.

This feels like a perfect week to try it. Considering TPC Craig Ranch has only hosted two previous editions of this event, we still don’t have a large sample size of data to understand what it takes to succeed here. I’ll stack a lineup with players who own strong birdie averages, one with ball-strikers and a few with excellent putters.

Bezuidenhout fits that last lineup and while I usually prefer to use him at events where the score is closer in relation to par, he has shown an ability to play well in these types of events, posting double-digit under-par totals at both the Shriners and AmEx in top-20 performances.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS lineups

Andrew Novak

One of the reasons I loved the idea of getting into the prognostication industry full-time more than five years ago was the ability to spotlight players outside of the usual suspects, those who weren’t already superstars. Without betting and DFS, chances are most fans wouldn’t know Novak’s name and – even worse – wouldn’t care. But once we start putting a personal investment into these players, we start paying more attention.

This year, Novak has made the cut in nine of 11 starts, with five top-40 results. He’s not a world beater and isn’t going to crack into the game’s top 10 anytime soon, but the 28-year-old is certainly a viable option to round out your lineups this week, as simply making the cut is enough to pay off at his price.

First-Round Leader

One player to post the lowest score Thursday.

Taylor Montgomery (+5000 for FRL)

After a torrid opening to his rookie campaign which included top-15 finishes in eight of his first nine starts, Montgomery has slowed down, with no such results in his last 10 starts. He’s not playing poor golf, though; it’s just that the occasional poor round is costing him. As such, I’d like to target him this week more for single-round wagers than full-tournament, which makes him a nice FRL option. At 49th this season in R1 scoring average with a number just below 70, one of the PGA Tour’s better putters could certainly roll his rock toward a low one this Thursday.

Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players.

Vincent Norrman (+13000) / M.J. Daffue (+13000)

I couldn’t decide between this pair of 130-1 long shots here, so I just listed both of ‘em since they’ve each been playing some very solid golf lately.

Norrman has three finishes of 21st or better in his last five starts, while Daffue has made the cut in seven of his last eight. They each make for nice top-40 type wagers and back-of-the-lineup DFS plays, but there are some similarly priced players against whom I’ll be looking to play each of these guys in head-to-head matchups.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value

Tyrrell Hatton (+1400), Adam Scott (+3000), Byeong Hun An (+5000), S.H. Kim (+8000), Dylan Wu (+11000), Tyler Duncan (+15000), Kramer Hickok (+25000), C.T. Pan (+30000), Sung Kang (+40000), Harrison Endycott (+50000)