There may not be many big names in the field at this week's AT&T Byron Nelson, but we got the most out of a handful of our renowned high-end options in Scottie Scheffler, Jason Day and Adam Scott. Each man sits within the top four of the leaderboard, but Seung-Yul Noh leads the way after posting an 11-under 60 to take the first-round lead at TPC Craig Ranch.
My model seems to like Noh quite a bit because of his trending form from a statistical perspective. It will be another story to see if he can keep himself at the top of the list, but I wouldn't consider what we saw Thursday to be a fluke. Noh has legitimate game and should continue his quality play over the next three days.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
AT&T Byron Nelson Matchup Pick
Kevin Chappell + 126 Over Michael Kim (BetRivers)
My model is always lower on Michael Kim than the consensus. I'm typically willing to recalculate it from a numerical standpoint since my data has been behind his recent surge. However, I still believe we get one of those classic spots where the math I'm running thinks the wrong man is favored in this Friday matchup.
The +126 price from our friends at BetRivers equates to needing a projected 44.25% chance if we want to break even on this wager. Obviously, we are looking for more than that if we want to place a bet in this situation, but a nice edge starts forming when realizing my proper total is closer to -122 for Chappell. That presents an expected 54.95% anticipation that Chappell will reach the finish line in front (ties excluded), generating over a 10% implied probability advantage.
There are a couple of reasons why my model landed on this explanation. First and foremost, Chappell, for me, was a borderline top-50 option in this field pre-tournament and saw an increase when I ran the data for safety. That "higher floor" answer is always significant for head-to-head bets as it removes some volatility from the equation.
Still, the more prominent retort here is that Kim graded pre-event as a shaky profile who would need to produce as a putter-heavy golfer if he wanted to find success. We saw that come to fruition Thursday as he gained 1.52 shots with his short game, making for a ball-striking return that lost 1.32 strokes off the tee.
Despite the positive expectation my model believes Kim should generate daily around the green and via putting, a fair finish, when comparing the steadier ball striking totals, should have had Chappell leading by 4.13 shots. That is a noteworthy difference when considering Kim's baseline in the more volatile areas.
Let's grab a wager that I believe hits over 54% of the time, but is priced at just a 44% expectation. Win or lose, sign me up for that all day!
