The PGA Tour heads up the West Coast from San Diego to the Monterey Peninsula for the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Three of the top 16 and seven of the top 50 players in the world will be playing in the fourth full-field event of the 2023 calendar year on TOUR at a tournament where longshots have had recent success.
Vaughn Taylor (+30000), Ted Potter Jr. (+50000) and Nick Taylor (+16000) have all emerged as winners despite long odds at Pebble Beach since 2016.
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is the final multi-course event of the 2023 PGA TOUR season. Players will participate in a pro-am and play the three courses (Spyglass Hill, Pebble Beach and Monterey Peninsula) once over the first three rounds each before playing at Pebble Beach for the final round after a 54-hole cut.
Let's take a look at which players have betting value to win outright and place in the top-20 market.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Sleeper Picks
Will Gordon +7000 (FanDuel)
Will Gordon is a player whose game fits Pebble Beach, and I'm generally higher on him than the market.
Gordon is long and relatively accurate off the tee, and this will be an advantage when he clubs down to find fairways at Pebble Beach, especially on the front nine.
His approach and off-the-tee game is strong and will put him in position to score on all three courses if his short game cooperates. He hasn’t lost more than 0.25 strokes on approach in any of his eight tracked tournaments this season, and he has also gained strokes off the tee in all eight tracked events.
He also has encouraging course history at Pebble Beach. He finished T21 here in his tournament debut in 2021. Although Gordon struggled with his game in the 2021 season, this was his second-best finish all season on TOUR that year. He also made it to the quarterfinals of the 2018 US Amateur at Pebble Beach.
I love this as a buy-low spot on him after coming off of consecutive missed cuts at the AmEx and Farmers, as he gained strokes on approach and off the tee in both events but lost over 2.0 strokes either around the green or with his putter.
If he avoids a disaster with his short game, he can contend this week and even win.
Pick: Will Gordon Outright +7000 |
Matthew NeSmith +8000 (BetMGM) | Top 20 +300 (bet365)
Matthew NeSmith is a strong player on approach, which gives him a higher ceiling than a lot of other players in this relatively weak field.
He's 20th in Strokes Gained: Approach this season on TOUR and has gained at least 1.20 strokes on approach per round in four of his seven tracked tournaments this season.
His biggest weakness is his middling-at-best driving distance, but his accuracy off the tee and strong approach play render that lack of distance much less important this week than last week at Torrey Pines, where he missed the cut.
He has decent tournament history on the Monterey Peninsula, as he has top-16 finishes in two of his three starts at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He's in the best form of his pro career with his irons, and with only three elite players in the field, he has a chance of winning this week.
I bet him to win outright at +8000 and have also played him for a top-20 finish at +300 on bet365.
