There is always a lot to keep up with at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am as players play off of two tees on three different courses across a couple hours each morning. Spyglass is always the most difficult, while Monterrey Peninsula and Pebble Beach play much easier. The caveat to that is weather, which we saw have a huge impact closing out the day on Thursday and Friday morning also featured cold and wet weather. This weekend, the winds are expected to wreak havoc and their potential presence has moved times up an hour on Saturday.
I was ready to write about chopping down the field by a third and avoiding everyone on Pebble Beach due to those winds, but the tee time change does adjust that a bit. I still think we are going to prefer to have players on the other two courses, but some of those that get out early will have pretty nice conditions for a majority of their round. We don't have strokes gained data for any players heading to Pebble Beach, so I'll instead lean on the edges around the draw and weather, alongside the scoring of the first two rounds, to find our betting value heading into Round 3.
Best Bets
Robby Shelton +12000 (FanDuel)
If I'm taking an outright, my target would be on the easiest course at Monterrey Peninsula. Unfortunately, the odds are in tune with that thought process and it's hard to find much value near the top.
If you find some numbers you like, top players like Justin Rose and Denny McCarthy have an opportunity to be in the hunt going into the final round. They're a little short for me, so I'll take a chance on a real longshot with Robby Shelton.
Shelton has the talent and these shorter courses are where I usually want to look to him. He struggled in the opening round on Pebble Beach on Thursday, but fought back with a strong 4-under day on Spyglass Hill. He'll get the chance to dial in and try to go low on Saturday to put himself in position to contend in the final round. While he is six shots back to start the day, he has the favorable course rotation and the long odds I would take a shot on into Saturday.
Seamus Power -140 over Thomas Detry (DraftKings)
If you asked me to plant my flag on a player to win this tournament right now, it would be Seamus Power.
He showed a lot to me in the way he bounced back from an ugly triple bogey early in his opening round at Spyglass, managing to claw his way back to even par on the day. He took that momentum straight into Monterrey Peninsula on Friday and posted the best score of anyone in Round 2, a 7-under 64.
The significance doesn't stop there though. Monterrey has oddly been a tough course for Power as Friday marked the first time he broke par on the course in his past four rounds and it was also where his five-shot lead fell apart last year.
All of that, along with his early tee time Saturday on Pebble Beach, adds up to a player I like to keep trending in the right direction. If you like the +900 to win, I say go for it, but that's a bit short for me with weather unknowns. Instead, I'll target Power over Thomas Detry in a Round 3 matchup.
