Many players found Saturday's conditions at Olympia Fields to be prime for scoring as overnight rains provided a soft course for the top players in the world to attack. Unfortunately, that didn't play out for the final pairing as Max Homa and Chris Kirk were the only players in the final five tee times to have rounds over par. Homa's lead went away as he struggled to find the hot putter he had to start the week and is two shots back entering the final round.
Homa couldn't seem to make a clutch putt, but World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler caught fire with the putter and vaulted himself to the top of the leaderboard. Scheffler's 6-under 64 will have him in the final pairing as he's tied alongside 2022 U.S. Open winner Matt Fitzpatrick. Brian Harman is one shot back. Additionally, Viktor Hovland and Rory McIlroy (8-under) are just three strokes behind the leaders.
It's a star-studded leaderboard and we're set up for an eventful Sunday as the best in the world jockey to position themselves for next week's Tour Championship. Let's dial in and see where we can find betting value in the final round of the BMW Championship.
Strokes Gained Explanation
Strokes Gained gives bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the Tour calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field. Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.
In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, SG: Ball Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility. You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but aren’t getting putts to drop.
Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.
2023 BMW Championship Round 4 Best Bets: 3 Golfers to Buy
I feel like we struck gold as we bought in at near pre-tournament odds on Scheffler (+800) before he climbed to the top of the leaderboard with one of his best putting rounds of the season. I'll be riding Scheffler through to the finish and don't think he'll need to duplicate what he did on the greens to get it done Sunday.
Homa got to the top of the leaderboard Friday with an 8-under round after starting the day three shots back. Scheffler got to the top Saturday after starting the round five shots behind the leader. If it isn't going to be Scheffler, then I'll look further down the leaderboard.
Any of the players 7-under or better can get in the hunt to win this tournament, but I'm hesitant to go beyond that.
My first stop in that group is Hovland. I liked him to start the week and he showed his course fit and form again Saturday as he gained more than three shots on the field with his ball striking. He backed up that tee-to-green play with a solid putter and if he can keep the momentum going, he could post a number that everyone has to match late Sunday afternoon. The +1400 isn't far from where we started the week and with just four players between him and the lead, I like the value on a golfer we know can go low in any given round.
I guess I'm officially doubling down on my picks this week because Xander Schauffele sticks out to me again. Schauffele went out fast with two birdies in the first two holes, but didn't find another until the 16th hole. He was able to finish his round with even more momentum as his birdie on the last hole, which was playing as the hardest on the course, moved him to 7-under and four shots back of the lead through three rounds. Schauffele lost nearly a full shot to the field on approach Saturday and still posted a 3-under to work his way a bit closer to the lead. I expect we'll see him bounce back and at +3500, I like sprinkling on a player I prefer playing without the pressure of the lead.
