From a head-to-head standpoint, things began extremely slow for me at the BMW Championship because of the lift/clean/place rule that was implemented Thursday morning after the course was hit with heavy rain.
Unfortunately, that is sometimes the nature of the business. That hard start is going to be tough to overcome, but not all hope is lost as our pre-tournament outright — Max Homa — is two shots clear of the pack through two rounds.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Round 3 Buys
Jon Rahm
I view this as a contrarian outlook as it adds a high-end talent into my player pool and assumes the risk of his projected lower-owned nature.
Rahm has been marginal (at best) when looking at this from a round-by-round perspective. His 13th-place grade for ball striking Thursday unraveled Friday when he sunk to negative 1.30 shots. However, there is much to be said about him going from third to 49th in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green.
I would look elsewhere for anyone who plays head-to-head cash contests because the volatility is pronounced in my sheet, but this is a GPP showdown slate route to try and find leverage against the field. We need some deviation from the pack in a 50-man field, and Rahm should possess that in spades after his slow start to the FedEx Cup.
Keegan Bradley
Keegan Bradley has had a quiet start to this event. He's near the middle of the pack through two rounds, sitting in 26th place.
My model noticed a trend that placed Bradley and Brendon Todd as the only players in this field to underachieve their ball-striking by at least four spots in both rounds. That data doesn't always generate the outcome we want, but we do have a nice bounce-back opportunity if Bradley can continue his driving + approach combination.
While the around-the-green returns are doing what my model feared (a 41st-place expectation that is landing 48th), spike potentials always loom when a golfer is performing in a way the numbers projected off-the-tee, approach and putting.
Bradley's third-place GIR percentage shows that upside and gives us an option that possesses a putter that landed top 20 in this field before a ball was struck on Thursday. More importantly, he's performed right around that baseline output thus far.
Round 3 Sells
Harris English
Harris English entered the week as one of the hottest iron players on the planet, even though he'd struggled to post a top-33 result over his past four tournaments.
I don't want to emphasize the opening two rounds too much because he's only lost less than a stroke to the field with his approach play. However, the inconsistent nature with what had been the steadier part of his game, and the enhancement in the more volatile areas, shows a floor that's lower than many may expect.
English has been a boom-or-bust golfer recently and carries a high-end return when putting on similar fast and firm surfaces. However, I worry marginally about what happens to his game if/when the course dries out a little over the weekend. My model believes that accuracy players — like English — carried an advantage over the opening two rounds. That may change over the weekend.
Adam Svensson
Adam Svensson has yet to pop on the leaderboard and is in 26th with a one-under par. However, he could have been two or three shots over par had it not been for his spike-putting round Thursday.
Svensson placed 48th in this field pre-tournament in total expected strokes gained. That number would be more in play if we used some of his baseline short-game metrics, which believe he should be in 41st at this stage of the BMW Championship.
We're obviously nit-picking an option here that grades as a bottom-10 play on most slates, but my model prefers Eric Cole when directly comparing him in the head-to-head or DFS sector. I will try to find my third round value elsewhere.
