Round 2 of the 2023 British Open played extremely difficult for almost everyone.
However, Brian Harman seemed to be the exception and he, at 10 under, holds a commanding five-stroke lead entering the weekend.
Below, I give out my four Round 3 PrizePicks plays for the 2023 British Open.
British Open Round 3 PrizePicks Plays
Brian Harman: Round 3 Less Than 72.5 Strokes
Harman has separated himself from the rest of the pack after going 67-65 through two rounds.
It has truly been an incredible performance, especially considering how difficult Royal Liverpool has played. Harman has a massive advantage over the weekend as he doesn't need to keep scoring. He just can't have a meltdown.
Harman can play conservatively, which is why I like him to stay below this number for a third straight round.
Even if some regression hits, I don't think we'll see a six-stroke drop in performance from a guy who should play conservative. History is certainly on Harman's side this weekend as his 10-under tied Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods for the lowest 36-hole score at Royal Liverpool in British Open history. They both went on to win the tournament.
Cameron Smith: Round 3 Less Than 71 Strokes
Cameron Smith, who enters the weekend T39 at 2-over, is also worth backing Saturday.
Smith went 72-72 through the first two rounds, but now is a good time to buy low on the reigning British Open champion.
His putter continues to be the best club in his bag, which is essential at a course that has given golfers trouble off the tee and tee-to-green. Smith's putting has been the best aspect of his game since May and has led him to seven top-10 finishes over his past eight tournaments.
We are seeing a similar story play out for Smith as we saw at the PGA Championship — where he went 72-72 before going 70-65 over the weekend en route to his T9 finish.
Jon Rahm: Round 3 More Than 70.5 Strokes
We are also going to fade a couple of golfers in the third round, starting with Jon Rahm.
Rahm is T39 at 2-over after going 74-70 through the first two rounds. However, we should expect the weekend to go more like Rahm's opening round than his Friday performance.
While he isn't doing anything particularly poor, he isn't doing anything particularly well either. He ranks 63rd among the field in Strokes Gained: Putting, 44th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, 123rd in greens in regulation percentage and 41st in driving distance.
It's been rough couple of months for Rahm, who is coming off a missed cut at the Travelers Championship and has failed to finish better than T10 in each of his past four tournaments. While the standards are extremely high for the third-ranked golfer in the world, his performance — relative to expectations — just hasn't been there.
Padraig Harrington: Round 3 More Than 73 Strokes
The last guy to win back-to-back British Opens — Padraig Harrington — survived the cut after going 74-71 through the first two rounds.
It's a cool story for Harrington to make the cut, but now is the time to sell high. In a similar fashion to Rahm, Harrington hasn't done anything exceptionally well this week.
Following the opening rounds, he ranks 93rd among the field in Strokes Gained: utting, 41st in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, 78th in greens in regulation percentage and 124th in driving distance. This is a guy who has missed the cut in nine of his past 13 major championship appearances and finished T50 or lower in two of those four made cuts.
