Brian Harman, at 12-under, holds a commanding five-stroke lead entering the final round of the 2023 British Open.
Below, I give out my Round 4 PrizePicks plays for Sunday's final round.
Padraig Harrington: Round 4 More Than 73 Strokes
The only guy we are going to fade in the final round is the last golfer to win back-to-back British Opens, Padraig Harrington.
He survived the cut after going 74-71 through the first two rounds, but posted a 73 Saturday and is T69 at 5-over. It was cool to see Harrington make the cut, but he's a good Sunday fade candidate.
He hasn't done anything exceptionally well this week, which means there is nothing to fall back on if any aspect of his game implodes. Following the first three rounds, Harrington ranks 73rd in Strokes Gained: Putting, 59th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 34th in greens in regulation percentage.
It's also worth noting that he missed the cut in nine of his past 13 major championship appearances prior to this week and finished T50 or lower in two of those four made cuts.
Tom Kim: Round 4 Less Than 70 Strokes
The first guy to back is Tom Kim, who is T11 at 3-under.
After a tough 74 to begin the tournament, Kim fired back-to-back 68s to propel himself up the leaderboard. It is more likely than not that his fourth round will continue that trend.
Kim's putter has been the best weapon in his bag this week as he ranks second in Strokes Gained: Putting. That is an essential metric to gauge performance this week as the course has been extremely difficult both off the tee and tee-to-green.
Kim is likely to keep sinking putts Sunday. He gained 1.08 strokes putting at the Genesis Scottish Open and 0.92 strokes putting at the U.S. Open, two tournaments where he also finished inside the top 10.
Brian Harman: Round 4 Less Than 71.5 Strokes
Brian Harman has separated himself from the pack after going 67-65-69 through the first three rounds.
It has truly been an incredible performance, especially considering how difficult Royal Liverpool has played. Harman possesses a massive advantage on Sunday as he doesn't need to keep scoring. He just can't have a meltdown.
Harman can play conservatively, which is why I like him to stay below this number for a fourth straight round.
Even if some regression hits, I don't think we'll see a three-stroke drop in performance from a guy who should play conservatively. History was on Harman's side entering the weekend, as his 10-under tied Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods for the lowest 36-hole score at Royal Liverpool in British Open history. They both went on to win the tournament, and I believe Harman will do the same.
Cameron Smith: Round 4 Less Than 70 Strokes
The final guy to back Sunday is Cameron Smith, who enters the final round T24 at 1-under.
Smith went 72-72 through the first two rounds before shooting a 68 on Saturday. I think he'll fall between those scores in the fourth round.
The reigning British Open champion won't struggle with the Sunday pressure as he has experience and is quite a ways back. Smith's putter continues to be the best club in the bag, which should benefit him in the same way it'll help Kim.
In fact, Smith's putting has been the best aspect of his game since May and has led to seven top-10 finishes over his past eight tournaments.
