DFS gamers experienced what happens when you remove the quality from the bottom of the field in what was already a tournament with limited talent. Six-of-six rates were at a seasonal high in almost all contests, and most five-of-six builds will find themselves drawing slim if they want to cash for any larger-field tournament.
Unfortunately, that removes most of the fun and edge. We will get better tournaments in 2024, although the elevated contests will deliver much of this feel because of their no-cut nature.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Butterfield Bermuda Championship Saturday Matchup
Adam Long -105 Over Russell Knox (DraftKings)
Before we get too far into this play, I do want to note that the lack of in-tournament data is troubling when it comes to exposure for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship.
That doesn't mean there aren't edges to be found or unique ways for us to extrapolate numbers, but I'm not going to sit here and pretend something is the most incredible betting contest of the season when it isn't.
My model is built in a fashion that takes 100% of the course history, current form and statistical data pre-tournament, and then marginally infuses the compiled metrics after each round. Essentially, the more information it collects during the contest, the more weight it attaches to what has transpired. No new knowledge produces nothing for what is going on on the course and takes 100% of the returns I gathered Monday-Wednesday.
That situation puts us in a spot where we are left to be overly reliant on out-of-date data if the wrong categories were run early in the week. However, something must be said about a course that presents an outlier component (wind).
Wind play, at its most basic level, is straightforward to toss into a model. Trying to overcomplicate the process could generate a disparity that can be flawed in its own right. Still, I decided to get unique with my build since we are missing many of the needed components elsewhere.
That is where my model found more questions than answers regarding Russell Knox's projection. The steady wind play was there for Knox and I wouldn't expect anything different from a player who has experienced those conditions throughout his life. However, my model saw inquiries arise from a reduction in iron play that reduced his strengths and enhanced his inability to scramble or putt.
In the rounds where he hit a lot of greens in regulation, he found his wind acumen to be a significant benefit. However, when his GIR percentage dropped, Knox landed as one of the most substantial fallers in my sheet of all players in this field. I'd expect that for someone who typically gets carried by his ability to gain strokes with his irons, but it was more of that downfall that sparked this red-flag in conditions that should surpass 15+ mph.
I am going to play this wager for 1.05 units to win 1.00. I would have had Long's expected win equity right around 55% for the day. Still, we are talking about a small edge that only reached value because of the specific change I made in my sheet. For some, that might not be worth a wager, but the hope is that a reduction of Knox's proximity will heighten his volatility.
