Oh, Alex Noren. It would only be fitting for you to finally win an event on the PGA Tour during one of the first weeks I didn't back you in the outright market during a Bermuda grass contest.
I've talked a lot about how options like Thomas Detry, Ben Griffin, Alex Noren and Brendon Todd typically see an expected boost in their win equity when given similar layouts. It is frustrating because I wanted to consider Noren as a possible addition to my card after a round or two occurred so the weather could affect the field. Still, Noren's blistering start to the week has made that route challenging because of the exposure it would take to become invested.
I don't know if he necessarily gets across the finish line since six of the top seven win equity candidates on the board did land inside the top 40 of my model pre-event, but consider this the best shot Noren has had in a while to do something that should have happened years ago.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Butterfield Bermuda Championship Sunday Matchup
Taylor Pendrith -122 Over Kramer Hickok (DraftKings)
It was an easy victory on Saturday at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship after Adam Long eclipsed Russell Knox by six shots.
Much of what we discussed with Knox's troubling returns past the broad sense of strokes gained in the wind came to fruition throughout the round — the Scottish golfer hit only 61.11% of greens in regulation. That total placed him in a share of 62nd out of 81 players who made the cut.
I think those deeper dives can be intriguing past the rudimentary expectations because they begin to highlight regression candidates when the conditions enter a specific mix. We saw that with Knox going from a top-five projected iron player for the event to one who could struggle if he missed a few more greens over the round.
It often will take those extreme answers to shift the more basic numbers away from their safer baselines. Still, we get a similar output here with Kramer Hickok, albeit with a solution that turns an already sour approach player into one that trends even further in the wrong direction.
My model projected Hickok 80th this week in recalculated strokes gained total. We saw that number land 28 spots below his baseline projection. Sure, that could be more of an outlier return since the American has found success at Port Royal in the past.
I never want to overweigh one area for a player who already struggles with a specific metric, but a lot of the vital driving totals also quickly entered a mix of danger if distance ends up becoming more of a pre-requisite over accuracy.
Hickok's 66th-place grade for wind remeasurement landed 53 positions behind Pendrith, and the built-in edge the Canadian has off the tee for distance could be pronounced if gusts hit the 15+ mph mark for the day.
Yesterday, I talked about how we could only do so much for an event that lacked in-tournament data. However, I will take that robust profile from Pendrith that has shown success at corollary tracks while fading a golfer who did experience regression in a few of the critical metrics that felt important for the final round.
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