2023 Charles Schwab Challenge Odds & Expert PGA Tour Picks: Bet Collin Morikawa & Jordan Spieth at Colonial

After a grueling week at the PGA Championship, the PGA Tour heads back to Texas to play the Charles Schwab Challenge in Fort Worth.

Colonial Country Club is a 7,209-yard par-70 and features Bentgrass greens. The difficulty of the event this week will be influenced by course setup and/or wind. It can play relatively easy or relatively difficult depending on pin locations and firmness of the greens, and the last four seasons have all produced winners with scores between -9 and -15. Last year, the event played really tough with Sam Burns edging out Scottie Scheffler in a playoff at -9.

The Charles Schwab Challenge is an invitational that will host 121 golfers this week, and the field is fairly strong despite it being the week after a major championship.

Some notable golfers in the field include Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Sam Burns, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Rickie Fowler, Tommy Fleetwood and Tony Finau.

Past Winners at Charles Schwab Challenge

• 2022: Sam Burns (-9)
• 2021: Jason Kokrak (-14)
• 2020: Daniel Berger (-15)
• 2019: Kevin Na (-13)
• 2018: Justin Rose (-20)
• 2017: Kevin Kisner (-10)
• 2016: Jordan Spieth (-17)

5 Key Stats For Colonial Country Club

Let's take a look at five key metrics for Colonial Country Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Approach will be a major factor this week. It grades out as the most important statistic historically in events played at Colonial Country Club, and that should be the case once again this week.

Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Scottie Scheffler (+31.6)
2. Tony Finau (28.1)
3. Collin Morikawa (+27.5)
4. Jordan Spieth (+24.0)
5. Rickie Fowler (+20.0)

2. Strokes Gained: Off The Tee

Both distance and accuracy will be important this week. Historically, shorter hitters who find the fairway have thrived at Colonial, but last year we saw a lot of the players in the star-studded field use big drives to eliminate the challenge of doglegs and fairway bunkers.

The rough can be thick and penal, so finding the fairway will remain important.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Scottie Scheffler (+25.4)
2. Viktor Hovland (+22.9)
3. Sungjae Im (+19.5)
4. Hayden Buckley (+18.8)
5. Luke List (+18.5)

3. Par 4: 400-450

With seven par-4s on the course that are between 400 and 450 yards, I am targeting golfers who excel on these types of holes. With only two par-5s on the course, par-4 scoring will be even more important.

Par 4: 400-450 Over Past 24 Rounds:

1. Jordan Spieth (+18.5)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+16.9)
3. Nick Taylor (+15.2)
4. Viktor Hovland (+12.1)
5. Akshay Bhatia (+11.0)

4. Course History

Course history seems to be much more important at Colonial Country Club than most other courses. The same players tend to pop up on leaderboards here year after year.

Course History Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Jordan Spieth (+54.6)
2. Tony Finau (+38.5)
3. Harris English (+32.1)
4. Brian Harman (+31.3)
5. Collin Morikawa (+20.0)

5. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)

The Bentgrass greens at Colonial are in immaculate condition, and putters who roll it pure are at an advantage. Historically, great putters have thrived at Colonial.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+32.6)
2. Brendon Todd (+28.8)
3. Maverick McNealy (+26.6)
4. Justin Lower (+24.4)
5. Andrew Putnam (+23.3)

Charles Schwab Challenge Model Rankings

Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (22%), Par 4: 400-450 (17%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (17%).

1. Viktor Hovland
2. Scottie Scheffler
3. Jordan Spieth
4. Tony Finau
5. Collin Morikawa
6. Max Homa
7. Sungjae Im
8. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
9. Adam Svensson
10. Sam Stevens

2023 Charles Schwab Challenge Outright Picks

Jordan Spieth +1400 (BetRivers)

Jordan Spieth's wrist injury is a big question mark this week. He played, and played relatively well, at the PGA Championship despite saying that he probably wouldn't have teed it up if it hadn't been a major championship. As of now, it appears he plans to play this week. Given his track record at Colonial, a wrist injury may be the only thing stopping him from winning.

Course history has proven to be extremely important at Colonial, and there is no one better at the course (or even close) than Spieth. In his past eight trips to Fort Worth, he has seven top-10 finishes, including a win and three runners-up. His form overall in the state of Texas is nothing short of immaculate.

Spieth's performance at the PGA Championship was encouraging considering the injury issue. He had the best Strokes Gained: Off the Tee week of his career, gaining 5.7 strokes. His iron play was solid too as he gained 2.7 strokes on approach. He was poor around the green, which may have been impacted by the sore wrist, but the fact that he hit it so well off the tee is a real reason for optimism heading into the week.

Spieth has had a fantastic season. I'd argue that he's among the top-five PGA Tour players in 2023 but is yet to come away with a win. I believe that has a strong chance of changing this week at one of his favorite courses on Tour.

Pick: Jordan Spieth Outright

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Collin Morikawa +1800 (BetMGM)

Collin Morikawa has gone winless on the PGA Tour since his improbable Open Championship victory in July of 2021. Although winning is hard, that’s come as a bit of a surprise considering the torrid pace in which he began his career. The now-26-year-old won four events in the span of roughly a year between 2020 and 2021. Since then, Morikawa has been close to a victory on multiple occasions. He has four top-10 finishes in 2023 and seems to be knocking at the door for another win soon. 

Colonial should be an ideal spot for Morikawa to contend once again. He’s had strong results at the course in his three trips including a second and a 14th-place finish prior to his disappointing 40th last year. As impressive as his first two finishes were, his statistics in those three starts were even stronger. He gained an average of 6.7 strokes on approach against the field at Colonial and was only held back by the putter in 2022. 

In addition to the strong course form, the ball striking is beginning to come around for Morikawa. They aren’t quite where they were when he was winning at an unconscious clip, but in his past five starts, he’s gained an average of 4.0 strokes on the field per event. The putter has still been a major issue, but he’s putted well (+3.2 SG: Putting in 2020) at Colonial before, so perhaps something about the greens can spark a putting resurgence this week. 

This is one of the better spots on the schedule for Morikawa to get back in the winner's circle.

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Pick: Collin Morikawa Outright

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