It has been a solid start to the Charles Schwab Challenge for us here at Action Network. My bet of the — Michael Block missing the cut at (-210) — was an easy winner. We also connected on a Thursday round one head-to-head wager of Eric Cole (-110) over Sam Stevens.
None of that puts us in the clear for a winning event as some of the pre-tournament matchups and placement bets I talked about on the Links + Locks podcast are still up in the air, but let's see if we can continue the fast start to the week.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Charles Schwab Challenge Round 3 Matchup Pick
Austin Eckroat -115 Over Carson Young (DraftKings)
As I am writing this article, we're still waiting for various books to open shop. That typically means we might find more value than a wager that only featured about 15 points of an edge (a little over a 3% implied probability advantage). However, right or wrong, my model has been lower than the consensus on Carson Young all week.
Young has been trending up after posting three top-19 finishes over his past four starts. Many of those results were highlighted by a vast improvement in his approach play, which produced a 44-spot increase over his baseline.
However, I have always been a big proponent of short-term information being a scary thing to pursue. That's because the books know a golfer's recent form, leaving the bettor chasing the bad end of a number. Recency bias doesn't always pop up in these situations, but this was one of those occasions where Young's data presented a handful of red flags.
My model believed the weighted proximity I ran was 36 spots below expectation for this track over a standard venue on tour. I consider that number to be significant since it looks directly into projected approach ranges for this facility, rather than a random shot at a different course. We also got a negative trajectory for weighted scoring, which started to turn his profile into one that was boom or bust and needing to rely on the putter.
We've seen that short-game luck early in the week as Young posted a tournament-leading +7.38 Strokes Gained: Putting total through two rounds, but I believe something has to give over the next two days.
My model thought Eckroat was one of the savvier plays to consider pre-event, and the 5.08-shot disparity between these two when running their actual ball striking and baseline short-game inputs starts to shift us into a zone where Young is on a heightened watch for danger.
