The PGA Tour season really gets underway when it heads to Torrey Pines.
After three strong outings to start 2023 and two Jon Rahm wins, we're onto examining the Farmers Insurance Open odds board, which sees the Spaniard installed as an overwhelming favorite.
None of our experts are betting Rahm this week, but they are high on him. Check out our tournament preview and Farmers Insurance Open picks below.
2023 Farmers Insurance Open Picks
Favorite We’re Backing
- Jason Sobel: Tony Finau
- Chris Murphy: Will Zalatoris
- Matt Vincenzi: Xander Schauffele
- Spencer Aguiar: Tony Finau
Pick: Tony Finau +1200 |
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Best Long Shot
- Sobel: Hayden Buckley
- Murphy: Kurt Kitayama
- Vincenzi: Brendan Steele
- Aguiar: Dean Burmester
Biggest Bust
- Sobel: Hideki Matsuyama
- Vincenzi: Taylor Montgomery
- Aguiar: Kurt Kitayama
Contrarian Player To Target
- Sobel: Kurt Kitayama
- Murphy: Taylor Pendrith
- Vincenzi: Hideki Matsuyama
- Aguiar: Martin Laird
Trend That Guides Your Betting Strategy
Sobel: Not since maybe the days of Tiger Woods in his prime has there been a greater convergence of course history and recent form than Jon Rahm entering this week’s Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines.
Coming off wins in four of his last seven starts, Rahm owns five finishes of seventh or better in six appearances at this event, including a win in 2017 — and not including his U.S. Open win in 2021.
One related note: Last season, there were three players who won back-to-back PGA Tour starts. Tony Finau finished T-5 in his next appearance, while Xander Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler each finished T-15.
Murphy: Every year, the Torrey Pines South Course rates as one of the more difficult tests on Tour as it plays to the longest distance, leaving players with more than 200 yards in on approach greater than 20% of the time. On the contrary, the North Course, which will host each player for one round to start the week, plays as one of the easiest courses each season.
While it’s tough to peg who exactly will go low on the North Course, we know that scoring low on that track will be a requirement and that Wednesday/Thursday round will give us an early light into who are the real contenders going into the final two days of the Farmers.
I’ll leave some room on my card to bet live this weekend as some value could open up with the players on vastly different courses the first two days.
Vincenzi: Twelve of the past 14 winners of the Farmers Insurance Open had a previous top 10 in the event.
Aguiar: The best way to play this event is from an in-tournament betting perspective on Wednesday night. If you have any random longshots — as I do with Dean Burmester (125/1), Martin Laird (300/1) or Jhonattan Vegas (300/1) — the time to place your bet would be before the opening tee shot takes place.
However, there could be an opening for any golfer that plays the South Wednesday to inflate on the odds board before they get their chance at the more straightforward North.
Your Best Bet
Sobel: Tony Finau each-way (+1100)
I’ve been backing Finau at this one for the past half-dozen years. Now that he’s finally learned how to close out tournaments, I’m not going to fade him.
Finau owns seven top-25s here in eight starts, with four results of sixth or better. That’s the good news. The bad news is that as the second-favorite on the board, his number is much shorter than I would’ve liked. The worse news is that the guy listed above him is on an absolute tear, potentially rendering all other outright plays dead money.
As such, I’ll play all outrights as each-ways this week — or, if not available, complemented by top-5/10 props.
Murphy:Will Zalatoris (+1600)
I was in wait-and-see mode on Will Zalatoris to start the new year as he returned to tournament play after a tough back injury ended his season during the playoffs. He has shown no ill effects from that injury through two starts in 2023 and now gets a chance for vindication after he fell short in a playoff at this tournament last year.
Zalatoris put together four rounds in the 60s this past week at the American Express, which built off of his weekend charge at the Tournament of Champions earlier in the month. Torrey Pines is a perfect venue for his game and this is a course that has proven year after year that we should expect the cream to rise to the top.
He’s my favorite combination of course fit and odds heading into the Farmers Insurance Open this week.
Vincenzi: Jason Day +2500 (BetMGM)
Betting Jason Day at the Farmers Insurance Open has started to become an annual tradition for me, and last year he almost pulled it off. He eventually finished in third place, only one shot out of the playoff between Zalatoris and List.
A great case could be made in favor of Torrey Pines being the course where Day has played the best golf throughout his impressive career. He won at the course in both 2015 and 2018. In addition to his two wins, he has four top-10 finishes at Torrey Pines. In his past 36 rounds, Day trails only Jon Rahm in Strokes Gained: Total at the course.
The former No. 1 player in the world is finally starting to string together some consistent good health and seems to be in the best physical shape we’ve seen in quite some time. Last week, we saw the 35-year-old play well in his first start of the season. He finished in a tie for 18th place and gained 3.0 strokes on the field from tee to green in his two rounds at the Stadium Course.
I think Day is in for a resurgent season in 2023, and a win at his favorite track early in the season would be a big step on his way to returning to being one of the world’s top players.
Aguiar:Live Bet On Tony Finau
With markets severely limited at the time of constructing this article, I will bypass my typical head-to-head play and pivot to a cop-out answer that I am looking to live bet Tony Finau on Wednesday night.
The one pertinent thing with this unique split is that golfers who start at the more challenging South might have difficulty scoring, which provides an opening for some in-tournament bets on Wednesday night.
