Well, well, well. Things just got extremely interesting in the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. Sam Ryder holds the lead heading into the final round, but he better not peek into his rearview mirror because it might end up spooking him if he sees the who's who of the event pressing the pedal to the metal and trying to get home in style.
Ryder's two-shot lead over a surging Jon Rahm barely even feels like an advantage at this point of the proceedings, and the following names of Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa and Sahith Theegala only add to the headache of the American trying to earn his first PGA Tour title.
Any Ryder fans out there hoping to find positives can point toward his statistical profile on the ball-striking front over the first three days, but round four is different, especially when paired with juggernauts like Rahm and Finau. We will see if Ryder can get the job done with his back against the wall, but it will take a phenomenal effort to reverse the ever-present deck that is stacked against him.
If you aren't doing so already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings for golf. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Round Four Breakdown
We have continued to talk about how locating players who, entering the final round, are either within five shots of the lead or inside the top 10 has produced a winner for me in 88 of 89 trackable starts (98.87%).
That means options like Xander Schauffele, Jason Day and Hideki Matsuyama are likely too far back to win the tournament on Saturday, which leaves us with a list of 14 golfers who have a realistic chance to capture the crown at Torrey Pines.
Some of those names might be a little more surprising than others, but you don't have to look any further than the past 20 trackable events in my model to realize that dart throwing down the board in round four can often be a foolish game that drains the bankroll.
You will notice some of the limited-field tournaments have been ignored for the sake of this test, but the results remain the same. If you land in one of my two criteria buckets, the likelihood of getting across the finish line shoots through the roof.
Now, we can take all of that a step further and condense the list by examining where a player ranked pre-tournament on my model, but we aren't going to get too many names cut when taking that route this week.
10 of 50 have been ranked first in my model (20%) – Jon Rahm
26 of 50 inside the top five (52%) – Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Max Homa
36 of 50 inside the top 10 (72%) – Collin Morikawa
40 of 50 inside the top 20 (80%) – Keegan Bradley, Rickie Fowler, Sahith Theegala
43 of 50 inside the top 35 (86%) – None
50 of 50 within the top 55 (100%) – Joseph Bramlett, Brendan Steele, Byeong Hun An
If we expect that information to hold, it eliminates Ryder, as well as S.H. Kim and Sam Stevens, but still leaves us with a relatively strong group of 11 names that fit the threshold we are using to condense this board.
I'd say Theegala, Keegan Bradley and Rickie Fowler are the last realistic names my model would give credit to at their top-20 ranks, but I am in a somewhat decent spot (if only Rahm would go away) after highlighting Finau and Im as two of the best in-tournament adds after day one.
I don't think any of that helps at this point of the contest since finding your way into a bet Friday night feels like forcing your chips into a lousy all-in spot in poker.
However, if you are trying to stay active with live in-tournament bets, keep an eye on these five names.
In an ideal world, Finau or Im slay the dragon that has become Rahm, but we will see if that ends up being nothing more than a fairytale situation.
