Ah, yes! We are heading back to one of my favorite tournaments of the year for Farmers Insurance Open picks at Torrey Pines, where iconic sceneries encompass the 36 holes of golf spread out between the North and South Courses over the opening two days of the tournament.
All golfers that survive the two-day cut will shift back to the South Course to finish on Friday and Saturday, but there is this encapsulation of the data that can make it tricky to figure out what the pertinent game theory route is for the week because of the split-course rotational aspect.
None of that suggests our statistical models shouldn't find a way to incorporate and unbox all factors for the event since the North does come into effect for 25% of the rounds (50% if you want to count the missed-cut potential), but I will go back to what I said in this article last week when talking about the American Express' three-course rotation and highlight that my ultimate goal is to decipher the data down into palpable and useable entry points.
If that means an overgeneralization of the stats, so be it, but I am emphasizing some of my recalculated tee-to-green metrics since the long-term data is extremely pronounced for both tracks. I am trying my best to simplify this process for a week that attempts to place us out of our natural comfort zones.
If you aren't doing so already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings for golf. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Farmers Insurance Open Picks
Sungjae Im
One of the things I like to do throughout the week is to run my model numerous times to take in the "new" information that has circulated in the space.
Which golfers are receiving sharp money? What happens when I take away a specific event that might be enhancing or decreasing someone's output projection? Is there an issue for the head-to-head sector where someone is becoming a massive dog to every opponent in his range?
Those are a few of the questions I ask myself when running my model throughout the week to create new totals, and the biggest climber in playability within my top-20 names came from Sungjae Im when I removed his entire week at the Sony Open.
We saw the three favorites of Im, Jordan Spieth and Tom Kim all miss the cut at Waialae Country Club. Even if we branch that out further to a few of the other upper-tiered golfers that weren't able to make the weekend, the majority were able to bounce back in a big way during last week's American Express.
To me, that signifies an aberrational result across the board, and I will trust the comprehensive historical data I have for Im — which suggests him to be a top-five win equity option for the week.
The 24-year-old ranks first in this field when remeasuring my weighted tee-to-green grades, and his steady improvement at this tournament has seen him increase his finishing position during all four years of competing.
If he wants to keep that trajectory up in 2023, Im will need to better his sixth-place result from last year, but the cards might be on the table for that exact outcome to take place.
Pick: Sungjae Im +2000 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Dean Burmester
Dean Burmester's top-40 number on FanDuel moved quickly, a total that shifted from +200 to +160 in less than an hour after I gave the pick out earlier this week.
That movement is obviously significant since it has increased the needed win equity by 5% of this wager, but I still believe there is enough meat left on the bone for us to dabble in the market and try to take advantage of his stylistic profile that seems like it would suit Torrey Pines to the max.
Burmester ranks first in this field when equally combining off-the-tee and around-the-green play, and his weighted scoring of fifth continues this trend that shows him placing as a top-20 sort of upside option for the week.
