The FedEx St. Jude Championship feels like one of those events where the fades have been better than the targets. I know that is a weird statement to make when Jordan Spieth, my number one player to win, finds himself in fourth place and within striking distance, but I firmly believe that what you see isn't always what you get in a golf tournament.
My model believes Spieth's fair outcome through three rounds should have in 32nd place because of his second-place ranking in strokes gained metrics with his short game. At this point, all bets are off because he can go in either direction on Sunday when we consider his heightened volatility. However, there is still a realistic chance for us to escape the event in the green after a hot run during our in-tournament wagers.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Round 4 Buys
Tyrrell Hatton
I don't know if there is a clear buy for Tyrrell Hatton in the head-to-head sector, but this feels like a nice buy-low spot at $8,900 because of the expected ownership that will land on Viktor Hovland ($9,400) and Max Homa ($8,800).
I understand the intrigue in wanting to play Homa because of his built-in point advantage starting the day in fourth place, but Hatton is on a list with Rory McIlroy, Beau Hossler and Si Woo Kim of golfers who landed inside the top 30 of my model while underachieving their projected ball-striking during each round.
The nearly five-shot difference when taking Hatton's baseline putting numbers and merging them with his actual performance is noteworthy as he ranked inside the top-five of my model pre-event for Strokes Gained: Putting.
Hatton will get the best of the greens Sunday, and could post a quality number to propel himself up the board in round four showdown lineups.
J.J. Spaun
Any head-to-head from me will always stem from the "fade" portion of the answer, rather than the golfer I want to back. That said, J.J. Spaun gets the best of both worlds at bet365 when comparing my intrigue to use him with Nick Hardy's minor overinflation.
Spaun has quietly finished within the top half of the field for ball striking during all three rounds at TPC Southwind. That alone doesn't justify the value my model sees on him for Sunday, but when I combine his top-20 rank in the field for anticipated matchup production with the pre- and in-tournament metrics, you get a stout producer that should have a minor edge against Hardy over 18 holes.
Collin Morikawa
No, this isn't a cry for help. I never play Collin Morikawa because the matchup market often isn't ideal, but the $9,200 price tag on DraftKings feels like a bargain for a player who ranks third behind Scheffler and McIlroy when running the board purely for upside.
A hot putter is needed if he wants to make a run into the top five, but I wouldn't discredit that possibility with the back-and-forth nature of his numbers this week. Morikawa has been good, but not great. If everything clicks Sunday, the sky's the limit.
