2023 Fortinet Championship Picks, Odds: Bet Justin Suh, Erik Van Rooyen in Napa

And just like that … the PGA Tour is back.

This is the part of the annual Fortinet Championship preview where I usually recycle the tired joke about everyone enjoying all the downtime in between seasons, but now that such time can be measured not in hours, but weeks, and the new season isn’t really a season at all, let’s keep the recycling center off this journey.

18 days after Viktor Hovland claimed the FedExCup in Atlanta, the PGA Tour will kick off a seven-event fall schedule which certainly doesn’t fall under the category of last season but doesn’t quite fit into next season, either, as that one will commence in January.

Instead, the tournaments over the next couple of months allow the best PGA Tour golfers to compete if they’d like, but the underlying subplot is more about players attempting to position themselves for spots in the signature events for 2024 and full-year playing privileges.

If that’s the underlying subplot this week, then it shouldn’t be difficult to figure out the overlying subplot.

One question I often ask on my SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio show Hitting the Green, besides, “Who do you like this week?” is, “Whom are you most intrigued by this week?”

Those are two very different questions, but there hasn’t been an easier answer to the latter all year, as Justin Thomas, who was a controversial captain’s pick for the upcoming Ryder Cup after failing to qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs, will indeed tee it up in hopes of showing some form before heading to Rome for the team competition.

Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that JT, amidst reports and subsequent denials of coaching changes within his team, enters this week with the second-shortest odds – behind only two-time defending champion Max Homa – in a field largely bereft of big-time talent.

If nothing else, that intrigue should keep things interesting out in Napa, where birdies will be flowing like the fine wine at all the nearby five-star restaurants.

Of course, when we’ve got some action, things are always intriguing – and that’ll be the case again this week, as I’ll start my card with some players who have West Coast connections and often stay hot with the flatstick.

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Fortinet Championship Outright Picks

Outright Winner (Short odds)

One player to win the tournament

Justin Suh (+4500)

For full disclosure, when I first started perusing this field, Sahith Theegala’s name stuck out to me as a potential winner, as a West Coast event with an inferior field should be ripe for his first PGA Tour title.

At 20/1, though, despite his T6 finish a year ago, even the biggest Thee-heads among us have to think twice about a number that places him behind only Max Homa and Justin Thomas on the board. Consequently, I pivoted to another West Coaster who’s capable of winning for the first time at more than double the price in Justin Suh.

Following a season which concluded with made cuts in eight of his last nine events, though 11 spots out of the FedExCup Playoffs, Suh took a trip to the Omega European Masters two weeks ago and posted a top-25 result. It’s no secret where he does most of his damage, as he ranked just below average in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and SG: Approach but fifth in SG: Putting.

He’s played some of his best golf during the latter months on the calendar after winning last year’s Korn Ferry Tour Championship, and like Theegala, he thrives in the Pacific Time Zone. This is less of an all-in, no-doubt-about-it pick and more of a good-place-to-start-the-card selection, as Suh certainly has the talent to win at the highest level.

Pick: Justin Suh Outright +4500

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Outright Winner (Long odds)

One player to win the tournament

Erik Van Rooyen (+13000)

It's really hard to quit Erik Van Rooyen. Coming off a second straight disappointing PGA Tour campaign, where he finished 131^st in the standings and made it easy to bypass his name, EVR traveled to Europe and finished T8 and T16 on the DP World Tour the past two weeks, sucking me right back in.

I often like targeting players who have been world-class and taken a dip in the ranking, knowing they could be four days from their best golf again.

Case in point: Danny Willett shoulda/coulda/woulda won this very tournament last year if not for an untimely three-putt from four feet on the 72^nd hole.

At this number, I’ll pay to see if Van Rooyen can replicate that performance – from the first 71 holes, at least.

Pick: Erik Van Rooyen Outright +13000

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Fortinet Championship OAD Picks

Other OADers

Potential selections for one-and-done pools

Sahith Theegala (+2000)

First off, as I write every fall, if you’re in an OAD pool which starts with the Fortinet Championship, you’re my kind of people. Leave it to the casuals to be worrying about their fantasy football lineups and get back to golf pools in January; the real diehards are already there.

As for Sahith Theegala, even though I bypassed him as my favorite outright above, I’ll still want a decent-sized investment this week because he’s more than capable of winning this tournament.

Those odds might dissuade us for an outright play, but they should keep us interested for these types of selections, as it’ll likely be a while before he owns the third-best chances of winning an event again.

Doug Ghim (+5000)

Fresh off a conclusion to his season that included positive strokes gained with his irons in eight of his final nine starts and six top-30 finishes during that span, Doug Ghim offers a high floor this week, even if his ceiling doesn’t quite match those 50/1 odds.

If you’re looking to cash a decent check and don’t want to “burn” a bigger name, he makes sense for OADs, but I similarly like him for top-20 tickets and in DFS lineups, too.

Placement Bets

Top Five

One player to finish in the top five

Andrew Putnam (+900 for a top-five finish)

At this point, I’m even tiring myself by continuing to list West Coast players who can roll the rock, but what can I say, I’ve got a type this week.

Andrew Putnam is one of the sneakier players on the PGA Tour, in that we don’t often hear his name and don’t usually see too many of his shots on the TV broadcast, yet there he was playing in the BMW Championship – and finishing T10 – when so many other big-name players didn’t get that far.

He’s posted a pair of top-five finishes so far this year – at the Sony Open and Memorial Tournament – and this one, where he was T43 and T30 the past two years, should be right up his alley. Ranking sixth in putting, only one spot behind Justin Suh, Putnam should roll in plenty of birdie putts this week.

Top 10

One player to finish in the top 10

Beau Hossler (+375 for a top-10 finish)

We’ve been waiting a while for Beau Hossler to mature into a top-level PGA Tour player, but there were some signs toward the end of last season that it’s coming very soon. He finished 26^th or better in four of his last five starts and seven of his last 13 by wielding a driver-putter combo that is reminiscent of Wyndham Clark before his breakthrough campaign.

Once Clark dialed in his iron game, he became a world-class player and major champion. That’s easier said than done, of course, but don’t be surprised if Hossler’s career takes on a similar trajectory this coming season, though perhaps not with such lofty results.

Top 20

One player to finish in the top 20

Dylan Wu (+320 for a top-20 finish)

Yeah, I know: You’ll never guess – another guy with West Coast ties who putts really well. Truth be told, Dylan Wu is an above-average iron player, as well. Much like the aforementioned Doug Ghim, I’m not sure his ceiling quite equals this week’s 70/1 outright number, but the floor remains high, so invest in that instead.

Top 30

Two players to finish in the top 30

Kevin Yu and Kevin Roy 

Give me all of the ball-striking Kevins for this one, though Kevin Yu owns decidedly more upside than Kevin Roy. This is a nice spot to target either one, as Yu boasts a tantalizing 75/1 outright number and Roy is 250/1.

If you read my previews on a regular basis, be prepared to see the former’s name pretty often over the next 12 months, as his tee-to-green game will undoubtedly have him climbing more leaderboards.

Top 40

One player to finish in the top 40

Fred Biondi (+320 for a top-40 finish)

Remember this name. After winning the NCAA individual title and helping lead the University of Florida to a national championship, part of an all-everything amateur career, Fred Biondi turned professional in June.

Not every recently-turned-pro can be Ludvig Aberg, who’s enjoyed immediate success at the highest level, and Biondi is proof of that after missing his last seven cuts on the Korn Ferry Tour. Nonetheless, I don’t mind a cautious play on his overall talent level here, thinking perhaps a start amongst the big boys can get his game going again.

Fortinet Championship DFS Picks

DFS Free Bingo Square

A safe plug-and-play option for DFS lineups

Max Homa

Sometimes the most obvious answer is also the most correct answer. There are plenty of ways to find value with your five other lineup selections, which means picking two-time defending champion Max Homa shouldn’t be too difficult, even with his lofty price.

The only potential worry here is that he’s looking ahead to his first Ryder Cup too much and won’t be wholly focused – remember, Jon Rahm missed the cut here two years ago, also just before the Ryder Cup – but that’s only a very minor worry.

DFS Mid-Tier

A medium-priced option for DFS lineups

Chez Reavie

Going back to the days of this event being called the Frys.com Open, Chez Reavie has six top-25 finishes and 11 made cuts in 13 starts, including a T3 just three years ago.

He was playing some solid golf toward the end of the past PGA Tour season, and while I won’t give too much consideration to carryover form from over a month ago, his game is clearly in a better place than it was at this time last year.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS lineups

Zac Blair

Playing on a Major Medical Exemption, Zac Blair will likely earn his PGA Tour card back this season, going from outside of the top 700 on the world ranking at the beginning of the year to inside the top 100 right now.

A short course such as Silverado should suit his game more than a bigger ballpark, so there’s reason to believe Blair can keep that success going at this one.

First-Round Leader

One player to post the low round Thursday

Cam Davis (+3500 for FRL)

There are few players more Jekyll-and-Hyde than Cam Davis, who can look like a world-beater at times and look very average at others. This year alone, he’s missed 10 cuts but posted six top-10 results. While some of his struggles can be chalked up to an early illness, he still had half of those MCs after he’d already gotten healthy again.

At 22/1, there’s too much volatility here for an outright play, even if I do love his game, but I’ll take a shot that Jekyll outshines Hyde in Thursday’s opening frame.

Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players

Akshay Bhatia (+6000)

I’m not really sure what Akshay Bhatia needs to do in order to prove something more to the oddsmakers, but I’ll enjoy his deflated number while it’s still here.

He’s absolutely in play for an outright ticket this week, but at the same price as Cameron Champ, Chesson Hadley and Sam Stevens, there should be plenty of viable options to play Bhatia in head-to-head matchups.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value

Stephan Jaeger (+2500), Mark Hubbard (+5500), Sam Ryder (+7000), Troy Merritt (+11000), Justin Lower (+11000), Austin Smotherman (+15000), Max McGreevy (+50000)