There are plenty of reasons why betting on golf is my favorite of any sport, but one of them is that it has the shortest offseason in all of sports. Golf is a year-round sport, and even the PGA Tour only has a few weeks between the Tour Championship and the Fall Swing (known as the FedExCup Fall this year, which is technically a continuation of the past season).
Everyone is excited for the Ryder Cup in Rome in a couple of weeks, but first we head to Napa for the Fortinet Championship.
This event has changed sponsors a number of times over the years, but it has long been held at the North Course at Silverado Resort in Napa. The course is a par-72 that measures 7,123 yards. The fairways are some of the narrowest on the PGA Tour, and the greens are quite small, yet scoring typically isn't too difficult.
This is routinely in the top half of the easiest courses on Tour, and it sounds like the course might play a little softer than usual. We shouldn't be surprised to see the winning score in the 20-under-par range.
As far as course fit, we've seen all types of golfers contend here over the years. With the fairways being so narrow and the course being relatively short for a par-72, there are two ways to attack it off the tee. Golfers can be more aggressive in the hopes that everyone is going to be playing from the rough, or they can dial it back and try to hit the narrow fairways.
Ultimately, I view this as more of a second-shot golf course. The greens feature a mixture of Bentgrass and Poa Annua, so golfers who are comfortable on this type of grass will have a significant edge with the flatstick.
Fortinet Championship Outright Picks
Sahith Theegala +1600
+1600 Outright (0.9 Units on FanDuel) | +3300 First-Round Leader (0.1 Units on BetRivers)
There were a handful of times last season that my outright bet ended up being the first-round leader who didn't close out the tournament, so I'm sprinkling a first-round-leader bet on each of my outright picks this week.
Sahith Theegala enters with momentum after he finished T6 here a year ago and is a perfect three-for-three at this event in his career. He grew up in California and went to school at Pepperdine, so he should feel right at home on these Poa Annua greens.
His biggest weakness is usually his driving accuracy, but it's tough for anyone to hit these fairways. This could be a positive for Theegala, who gained 5.1 strokes from tee to green in his last start at the BMW Championship.
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Beau Hossler +2500
+2500 Outright (0.9 Units on FanDuel) | +4500 First-Round Leader (0.1 Units on BetMGM)
If I could only make one bet this week, it would be on Hossler. He's had some bad Sundays around Silverado, but has found himself in contention at this event a couple of times in his career. He's still searching for that elusive first win, but his game seems to be trending in the right direction.
He gained 7.6 strokes ball striking at the BMW Championship, which was the best ball-striking week in his career.
We know he has a good short game and can light it up on the greens. This could be the week that he finally crosses the finish line.
Justin Suh +6000
+6000 Outright (0.9 Units on FanDuel) | +6000 First-Round Leader (0.1 Units on FanDuel)
Justin Suh also grew up and went to college in California. The USC Trojan is coming off of a very solid rookie season where he had two top-six finishes. He's a proven winner as well, as he won the KFT Championship last September.
His ball-striking can be hit-or-miss, but the putter rarely lets him down. In fact, he has gained at least one stroke putting in 14 straight events. That's an extremely impressive streak given that putting is the most volatile statistic on a weekly basis.
With that consistency on the greens, he's just one strong ball-striking week away from picking up his first win on the PGA Tour.
Even though it hasn't been long, it's good to have golf back. Good luck this week!
