After a hectic week at the WM Phoenix Open, the PGA TOUR keeps its foot on the pedal at the Genesis Invitational — providing a designated event for the field to try and earn the $3.6 million first-place prize in a city just outside of Hollywood, California. As they say in that part of the country, "lights, camera, ACTION!"
23 of the top 25 players in the world will play at Riviera Country Club, and the star power can be felt at all turns of the event. You don't have to look much further than the fact Tiger Woods decided to compete this week to understand what this contest means for the PGA TOUR, and adding this title to a golfer's resume can change his career trajectory — yes, I am looking at Max Homa when giving that comment.
With a betting board that has some flaws in hold percentage, we will have to be selective in the wagers we place this week. However, every tournament will always have something tangible and profitable to consider. Let's dive into some of those options and see if we can find a way to earn a weekly profit.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Genesis Invitational Picks
Xander Schauffele +1900 (Bet365)
My model is extremely standard with its mathematical allocation during most weeks. It is nearly impossible to have someone not named Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy or Scottie Scheffler rank number one when they are in the tournament. That is a basic answer that should be expected from anyone that runs any semblance of a proper model, but I mention it as a reason to highlight the strength behind some of my numbers this week.
Sure, I do a lot of weird mad scientist-type stuff on my end, but the goal is never to build a model that wants to always agree with sportsbooks. In fact, weeks work better when I create deviations to try and better locate value, but we have one of those rare occurrences during the Genesis where my math believes Xander Schauffele should have been the betting favorite.
The course history is exceptional, with nothing worse than a 23rd-place finish in five attempts, although the high-end allotment has been troubling when we consider his best result was a ninth during his first start here in 2018.
Perhaps part of that problem stems from his weighted proximity that can find some trouble from the critical 150-175 total that sees a 6.6% enhancement over a standard stop. However, he and Max Homa are the only two golfers in this field who provide both a top-20 short game for this fiery Poa test and equal rating when looking at my weighted tee-to-green output.
Homa won this title in 2021, and I wouldn't be shocked if Xander followed suit this year and added this to his growing resume.
Pick: Xander Schauffele +1900 |
Beau Hossler 57th or Better (Bet365)
It took a very particular route of running my numbers for pure safety to have Beau Hossler grade as a value. However, we aren't going to need much more than a made cut and a few acceptable weekend rounds to get this wager across the finish line.
The American will never look great when running a statistical build of any kind, but eight of his last 11 finishes have quietly landed within this number. Not to mention his previous two results at this venue have also yielded top 50 results.
The 27-year-old has one of the best short games in the world which will help at the daunting and undulated green complexes of Riviera. His top-35 mark for distance quietly adds a unique skill set for him to take advantage of this facility; think of a golfer like Wyndham Clark or Patrick Rodgers, who have both presented that blueprint when generating top-25 results of their own.
