2023 Genesis Invitational Updated Odds, Expert Picks: Value on Hovland, Burns at Riviera

TPC Scottsdale held true to form with another name at the top winning the title.

Scottie Scheffler ended up defending his title despite Nick Taylor playing probably as well as he has since joining the PGA TOUR.

Favorites winning doesn't ever work in my favor, so it's easy to move on to California for the Genesis Invitational, where the headline is Eldrick's return.

The Course

Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles measures 7,340 yards for a par-71 as it ranks as one of the toughest tests from tee to green on TOUR. Each year, it tends to have some of the hardest fairways and greens to hit.

Since players often struggle to find the fairways and greens, I put more of an emphasis on scrambling at Riviera than I would during a normal tournament.

On easier courses, that doesn’t come into play as much because if players are scrambling, then they aren’t usually creating enough birdie chances to win anyway. But on this course, the winner will likely need to find a way to get up and down five or six times per round.

This course has also favored bombers in recent years. Bubba Watson has won three times in the last nine years. Dustin Johnson and J.B. Holmes also have wins here during that time frame.

Prior to that run, though, shorter hitters like Steve Stricker, Bill Haas, Aaron Baddeley and John Merrick also had success here. When in doubt, it’s probably best to favor length, but a shorter hitter who stays out of trouble can also contend.

The Favorites

The field is pretty much the same as last week, so we're not getting much change in the odds.

Jon Rahm moves slightly ahead of Rory McIlroy as the favorite with Scheffler close behind following his win. McIlroy has the best track record here with three top 10s in the past four years and will probably feel that he let the 2020 title slip away after entering with a share of the lead.

Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau and Justin Thomas make up the teens. Finau and Thomas have both had real chances here. Finau came up short to Max Homa in a playoff two years ago. Thomas had the 2019 version basically wrapped up before blowing a four-shot lead to JB Holmes.

We have another strong group in the +2000s, including Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im and Viktor Hovland. Hovland catches my eye the most here. I played him at +3300, and that's down to +2800 in most places now. He has recorded top-five finishes in both his appearances here.

We mentioned how this course puts the emphasis on scrambling, and that's notably been his weak point so far. But in those two starts, his around the green game hovered around the field average. He had a dip there last week in Scottsdale, but overall, his game has been trending up in that direction. With an improved short game to go along with some of the best ball striking on TOUR, he might be ready for a breakthrough season.

Pick: Viktor Hovland

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The Midtier

I'll start here with Sam Burns at +3300 on BetRivers. Burns held the 36 hole lead here two years ago, but a slow Saturday saw him miss the Finau/Homa playoff by a shot. He's in solid form entering the week with a 6th and 11th his past two starts. He's got the strong short game that this course requires as well, so he should be a good fit.

Pick: Sam Burns

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I'm also going to Adam Scott who opened at +6600 and has dipped to +5500 everywhere. Scott is as consistent as they come at Riviera. He's got five top 10s in the past eight starts, including the win in 2020. Scott was one of the few who sat out Phoenix last week to give this event his full attention.

Pick: Adam Scott

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The Longshots

Because of the importance of the short game, this is one of the big events where we can see a longshot sneak in from out of nowhere.

One player I like this week down here is Lucas Herbert at 150/1 on BetRivers. He's got the solid short game we need to contend at Riviera. His biggest weakness in the accuracy with the driver. These are some of the tougher fairways to hit anyway, so that could drag down the field to his level when approaching the green from the rough. He's been playing well of late as well, placing third a couple of times in the Middle East at the Saudi and Dubai events.

Pick: Lucas Herbert

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I'll close here with Adam Hadwin at 130/1 on DraftKings. Hadwin is one of the players who can take advantage of his accuracy off the tee and pop up with a good driving week. He's been playing well for awhile now, making every cut since the John Deere last year. He finished 10th last week in the loaded WM Phoenix Open field. He's also made the cut in seven of eight tries here, including a sixth-place finish back in 2018.

We've seen both of these styles work well here, so I'll take one shot on each with guys who are playing well coming in.

The Genesis Invitational Card

• Viktor Hovland +2800
• Sam Burns +3300
• Adam Scott +5500
• Adam Hadwin +13000
• Lucas Herbert +15000