It's been an up-and-down season due to higher hold percentages ravaging some of the markets in the space. Obviously, that equates to smaller edges when numbers are getting pushed further away from proper as a whole. Still, the 6.60% ROI that my model has generated this season is something I'm happy with.
The hold percentage answer is the popular take that's become more widely understood as people have gotten better acclimated within this industry. However, one of the things I have been harping on recently during my Links & Locks podcast here at Action Network is how shops have gotten savvier in the way they are pricing head-to-head matchups.
For me, my ROI expectation has seen the largest decrease from some of these in-tournament, head-to-head battles not hitting at the same long-term rate I had become accustomed to since 2017.
My numbers just can't seem to find the massive deviations in pricing because wiser books have figured out who the "fade candidates" are to begin the week. You can see that when looking at just the past five years of all wagers I have written and tracked in articles.
I would say the recent surge in the outright market has probably saved an otherwise flat year, but as I always say, profit is profit.
Let's try to close 2023 strong and get back on track inside one of my bread-and-butter markets on Thursday for the Genesis Scottish Open.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Genesis Scottish Open Round 1 Matchup Pick
Alex Noren -110 vs. Rasmus Hojgaard (DraftKings)
The 75 DP World Tour players have done a number on my model because of the lack of data I have on them. I don't love grabbing incomplete statistical profiles and extrapolating out from there. It's a dangerous game that can quickly back you into a corner.
That said, I do like the pricing surge up the board that Rasmus Hojgaard has experienced after winning last week's Made In Himmerland.
I'm pretty sure I have a college basketball shirt that says 'Made In Jimmerland' that I got in 2010 after watching Jimmer Fredette torch my UNLV Runnin' Rebels. Are those two things the same? Is that a bad omen for this wager? Who really knows? But what seems evident to me is that Hojgaard's victory has moved him further up the board than we would have gotten if not for the win.
Those have historically been scenarios I've liked attacking when my model isn't in agreement with the shift, and it comes against Alex Noren, who appears to be seeing the reverse regarding his public perception.
I'd throw away the results Noren produced in the middle of the season when he missed seven of nine cuts. I don't believe that to be a true evaluation of the current state of his game.
Recent form has seen the Swede make three of four cuts by turning around his iron play, and the long-term weighted proximity continues that positive trajectory since he surpasses his baseline projection in my sheet by 15 spots when comparing his expectation here versus a random track on tour.
It doesn't hurt that I've been desperately trying to grab exposure to Noren in some iteration of the market, so with that concept in mind, I will take 1.1 units and throw it on one of my favorite values to win his two-ball battle on Thursday.
