2023 Genesis Scottish Open Odds, PGA Tour Picks: Bet Adam Scott & Robert MacIntyre

There can be — and yes, my friends, there have been — plenty of debates over the revised PGA Tour schedule during the past few years, not to mention the impending revisions after all this who-the-hell-knows finally reaches some clarity.

There is no right or wrong opinion in this deliberation, though we’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who appreciates the game and somehow disapproves of this specific part of the schedule, the one which gathers the game’s best players for an overseas fortnight of links golf every summer.

Granted, it’s not like any rearranging was needed, as the Genesis Scottish Open for years has preceded The Open Championship. And it similarly isn’t like PGA Tour players were prohibited from competing in the former, as Michael Allen was the first American-born player to win, back in 1989, followed by Tom Lehman, Phil Mickelson and Rickie Fowler, each of whom prepped for the major by getting a lay of the land one week earlier – and Mickelson, as you’ll recall, went back-to-back.

For the first time last year, though, the Scottish Open became a co-sanctioned event, drawing a much bigger number of PGA Tour regulars to The Renaissance Club. (By the way, it really is pronounced Re-NAI-ssance Club, no matter how strange it sounds each time.)

From a betting perspective, it’s a helpful switch.

There have been efforts over the years to determine the best links performers, but much like trying to figure out the top match-play competitors, our sample size amongst the top tier is probably too small to receive a perfectly accurate evaluation, especially for those who have only been playing professionally for fewer than 4-5 years.

All of which makes this week’s event doubly important.

I feel like the piece you’re reading right now could almost serve as sort of a two-week preview, which is to say: If you like a player for his links acumen this week, you should probably like him next week, too — and similarly, a fade for one is probably a fade for both.

Speaking of small sample sizes, I wanted to share the following numbers not because they provide some magic doorway into next week’s leaderboard, but simply to prove there’s some consistency from the first of these events to the second.

Let’s start with the top 10 at last year’s Scottish Open and where they finished one week later at The Open Championship:

The 13 players who played the following week included the winner, four inside the top 10 and seven inside the top 25, with just two missed cuts.

Now here’s the top 10 at last year’s Open Championship and where they finished at the Scottish:

Obviously, there’s some overlap, but again we see that the appetizer served as a nice predictor for the main course.

Just so nobody can make the accusation of building my own narrative here, allow me to point out that there have been some severe exceptions to this suggestion over the past few years.

Two years ago, Collin Morikawa showed up to the Scottish Open having never played true links-style golf, finished in a share of 71^st place and later explained, “I couldn't find the center of the face. I was hitting these irons shots last week that I just normally don't.”

He won the Claret Jug one week later, of course.

And last year, Cameron Young posted scores of 76-77 in the first of these two events – not only missing the cut, but beating just two other players who completed 36 holes. The very next week, he was runner-up at The Open.

Whether those are examples to be heeded or true outliers, the point remains that form – and a love of links golf – often carries over from the first of these tournaments to the second.

As such, many of the names you’ll see in this week’s preview will likely be prominently displayed in next week’s preview, as well, which means you should expect to continue reading about some of these guys: Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton, Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood, Rickie Fowler, Adam Scott, Shane Lowry, Min Woo Lee, Ryan Fox and Robert Macintyre.

One last note before we get to the picks: It might be a little breezy in North Berwick this week. Hey, it tends to do that in Scotland.

And while wind predictions over there are about as useful as sunblock, the early forecast shows for a bit more bluster on Thursday morning and Friday afternoon, which suggests the late/early wave might have a slight advantage this week.

Let’s get to the picks – and stay tuned at the bottom for my Barbasol Championship selections, as well.

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Outright Winner (Short odds)

One player to win the tournament

Adam Scott (+5000)

While Tommy Fleetwood (+2200) and Tyrrell Hatton (+2500) were among my final eliminations in this category, I can’t resist Adam Scott at double the price, for a few different reasons.

The first is about form – and not simply that he’s striking the ball nicely, because quite frankly, he always does that. Other than a missed cut at the U.S. Open, the Aussie has quietly been trending in the right direction with five top-30 results in his last six starts, including three top 10s.

Over the past 18 months, it’s felt like Scott has been leading up to his next – and perhaps last? – big victory, though “big” might not solely be defined as a major championship.

Somewhat remarkably, he owns just two wins – the 2019 Australian PGA Championship and 2020 Genesis Invitational – in the past seven years, but just as the likes of Rickie Fowler and Jason Day have been rewarded for their patience and persistence, it feels like Scott is similarly due his just desserts for a hunger and attitude that some might’ve questioned at this point in his timeline.

After all, when you’re 43 (his birthday is – how ‘bout this for a narrative – this Sunday, just in time for the final round) and a Masters champion and have three young children at home and never felt the need to clog up the schedule with too many events even in your prime, it could be assumed that the back-nine of a career would be spent lounging on a massive pile of cash, rather than grinding away for future glory.

He’s either to be commended or chided, depending on your personal perspective, for not being lured to LIV Golf by Greg Norman, considering he fit the profile of so many others who made that move.

It’s impossible, though, to not praise him for racking up first-page-of-the-leaderboard finishes at tournaments like the Wells Fargo Championship and AT&T Byron Nelson, consolation prizes for a player who doesn’t need consolation prizes at this point of his career.

Then there’s the matter that while it’s difficult to rate the best links players with so few events among the world’s best, it’s hard to argue that Scott’s name shouldn’t be on that list. While the biggest regret of his career is certainly the four-bogey finish at Royal Lytham & St. Annes in 2012, he does own five top 10s and 10 top 25s at The Open.

For years, the theory – or part of it, at least – has been that his poor putting is mitigated by slower greens on these types of tracks. Well, surprise: He’s not putting poorly anymore. Scott ranks 36^th in Strokes Gained: Putting this season and has gained strokes on the greens in each of his last eight starts.

This all adds up to great value for the price on a proven winner who should be due for that next success.

Outright Winner (Long odds)

One player to win the tournament

Robert Macintyre (+9000)

Not long ago, Robert Macintyre was supposed to be the next big European star – maybe not in the mold of a Rory McIlroy, but perhaps not too far off the track of a Viktor Hovland.

Despite two wins on the DP World Tour, a couple of top 10s at The Open and top 25s at the Masters over the past few years, the Scotsman still hasn’t quite delivered on that potential, currently mired outside the top-100 in the world ranking.

This was epitomized at the Made in Himmerland event this weekend, where he led heading to the turn in the final round, only to post a triple-bogey on the 13^th hole and a back-nine 39, good for only a disappointing share of fourth place.

That might not seem like grounds to back him at a much more star-studded tournament one week later, but I still believe the 26-year-old lefty is on the right track to be a star, even if not of the magnitude we once presumed, and on the right track to play some impressive golf over these next two weeks.

Though he missed the cut here last year, results of T14 and T18 in the two previous editions of this event suggest what we already know – that returning to familiar territory should be a tremendous boost to both his confidence and his performance.

Other OADers

Potential selections for one-and-done pools

Viktor Hovland (+1800)

Full disclosure: Unless he gives me reason to pivot, Viktor Hovland is likely going to be my favorite outright selection for The Open next week. More disclosure: I’ve endured plenty of situations over the years when my favorite play for a major goes and screws it up by playing really well the previous week, shortening his price in the marketplace and/or making it seem like a bandwagon bet due to recency bias.

With that in mind, I fully expect Hovland to get himself into serious title contention at this one, which is hardly a shocking premise. If you haven’t used him in OADs and for some reason don’t want to wait another week, he should be a valuable play here.

Shane Lowry (+3500)

If you want to accuse me of simply listing the entire European Ryder Cup roster, well, you wouldn’t be very wrong about that. The truth is, I like Shane Lowry just a little bit less than Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood, but more than a guy like Justin Rose, which essentially means he’s priced in the right spot in between them.

Lowry has been tremendous with his irons lately, and he’s consistently knocked on the door to a title contention without quite getting there. It wouldn’t come as a surprise if it happened at some point over the next two weeks.

Min Woo Lee (+3500)

There were undoubtedly bettors who woke up Monday morning and thought to themselves, “I think I’m going to take a shot on Min Woo Lee this week, let me just check that he’s a decent number and—” Yup, that’s probably where the plan hit a snafu.

I can understand people liking the Aussie, who won this event two years ago, but apparently the books were keen on this idea, too. It’s difficult to back Lee at a price which seems way too short, but he makes for a strong OAD selection. He owns top-15 finishes in his last three starts and has proven that big-boy fields aren’t too intimidating, placing T6 at The Players and T5 at the U.S. Open.

Justin Thomas (+4000)

Yes, this is the same Justin Thomas who’s endured some highly publicized struggles recently, missing the cut at the Memorial Tournament and U.S. Open, then showing some signs of life with a T9 at the Travelers Championship, only to MC again at the Rocket Mortgage Classic one week later.

This is by no means a safe play, as JT hasn’t shown an abundance of links proficiency, missing the cut at last year’s Scottish and without a top 10 in six tries at The Open.

I do, however, believe a change of scenery can do a world of good for a player who appears in dire need of it. If he can’t put his change in his left pocket, tie his left shoe in a double knot, turn his hat backwards and stick a tee behind his left ear, then perhaps playing a course which is completely different to the ones on which he’s been struggling could be the change he’s needed to start playing better golf.

Placement Market Bets

Top Five

One player to finish in the top five

Tyrrell Hatton (+500 for top-five finish)

Regular readers of my previews know that I’ve often explained how the Strokes Gained: Total statistic is the greatest determining factor of performance. Victories can measure internal fortitude and clutch play and even a little bit of luck, but a player can’t fake his way up the strokes gained list.

So far this season, Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm are unsurprisingly 1-2 in this category. What might surprise you is that the man in third isn’t Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay or Xander Schauffele (they rank 4-5-6).

No, it’s Tyrrell Hatton, who by all measurements is due for a little positive regression, as they say in the industry, considering he’s played like the third-best player on the PGA Tour, but his six top 10s and 10 top 25s in 16 starts don’t yet include a victory.

There’s plenty of suspicion that could happen this week. While I’m listing him here for a top-five finish, he’ll also be on my card for an outright play and makes just as much sense for OADs, DFS and anywhere else you’d like to invest.

Top 10

One player to finish in the top 10

Tommy Fleetwood (+260 for top-10 finish)

Here’s the not-so-secret formula: Last year, Tommy Fleetwood finished T4 at this event (and T4 again at The Open) while entering the week playing decent golf. This year, he’s coming into this one performing much better, and so it should reason that we have expectations for a similar result, at the very least.

He’s gained strokes off the tee and on the greens in seven of his last eight starts and with approach shots and around the greens in six of his last eight. That’s an impressive combo which suggests his three recent top fives could be leading to his next victory.

Like Hatton, Fleetwood is a player on whom I’ll have a little outright sprinkle, as well.

2023 Genesis Scottish Open: Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood Headline Murphy's CardRead now

Top 20

One player to finish in the top 20

Ryan Fox (+275 for top-20 finish)

I’m a big fan of Ryan Fox’s game and an even bigger fan of his game when he returns to a links track such as this one. In fact, his most recent victory came at last year’s Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, and you don’t have to know much about the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship to understand that it is indeed a… wait for it… links championship.

He’s been mostly plying his craft on the PGA Tour this season, where he’s earned membership through a steady diet of consistent results, but the Kiwi should be licking his chops for these next two weeks, knowing how well this style of golf suits his game.

Top 30

One player to finish in the top 30

Keith Mitchell (+225 for top-30 finish)

At first blush, Keith Mitchell’s game doesn’t feel tailor-made for links golf – and maybe it isn’t – but I do believe the mash-up of a lover of the game and this type of course should serve as a nice combination.

I’ve been on Mitchell for much of the year, and while he’s been solid, I’m still a bit disappointed that he’s yet to become a consistent top-25 type of player. I do think it’s coming, though, and when it does, I don’t want to miss out. I’ll stick with a conservative play here as a top-30 bet.

Top 40

One player to finish in the top 40

Tom McKibbin (+275 for top-40 finish)

A young kid from Northern Ireland who grew up playing Holywood Golf Club and already owns a DP World Tour win before his 21^st birthday? Hmm… where have we heard this story before? I’m not suggesting that Tom McKibbin is going to be the next Rory McIlroy, but there are worse aspirations to have.

Just last month, he won the Porsche European Open, and while he’s missed the cut in two starts since then, he owns a ton of game and is worth at least keeping an eye on this week, even if you don’t play him for a prop or in a DFS lineup, where he owns some value, as well.

DFS Picks

DFS Free Bingo Square

A safe plug-and-play option for DFS lineups

Rickie Fowler

I wonder how many DFSers are going to see Rickie Fowler’s price and immediately drop him from consideration, as it does feel like a direct pricing correlation to his recent victory at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

While I can understand that, I’ve always believed Fowler excels when he can show off his creative side, which is why I think The Open could be his best chance of any of the four majors. He won the Scottish back in 2015 and should be entering this one with more confidence than he’s had in years. Don’t be shocked to see him step on the gas pedal and get right back into contention here.

DFS Mid-Tier

A medium-priced option for DFS lineups

Ludvig Aberg

Let’s keep riding the youngster until he gives us reason to jump off. That hasn’t happened yet, as Ludvig Aberg posted a final-round 63 at the John Deere Classic this past weekend to finish in a share of fourth place.

In watching him recently, I can see some traces of Viktor Hovland in his game, which should be taken as the high compliment that it’s meant as. That also suggests that pounding driver long and straight on this firm terrain should lead to plenty of birdie chances. The world is catching on, so don’t expect ownership to be low, but he makes a ton of sense in the middle of a lineup once again.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS lineups

Daniel Hillier

If you don’t pay attention to the DP World Tour, there’s a chance you’ve never heard the name Daniel Hillier, but that’s all about to change. In his last four starts, the New Zealand native owns a win and two other top-five finishes. He was always cast as a high-level amateur with a world of potential, and we’re starting to see him fulfill it now.

Throw in the fact that Kiwis are traditionally strong links players – see Ryan Fox above – and Hillier could make for a very nice (and possibly low-owned) DFS addition this week.

2023 Scottish Open Odds, Field: Scheffler Favored Over McIlroyRead now

First-Round Leader

One player to post the low round Thursday

Jordan Spieth (+3300 for FRL)

Two weeks ago, I was co-hosting The Gimme with Nick Bretwisch, who along with Spencer Aguiar does a great job breaking down events for us on a variety of platforms. When we got to the FRL portion of the show, I asked Nick for his strategy on Thursday low-man wagers, and he replied with something along the lines of, “I try to stay away from them.”

I don’t blame him. These are fun, and if you hit one, you can essentially bank a week on the positive side before the second round ever starts, but my personal strategy has been off. When I play a longshot for FRL, it invariably winds up being a big-name leader. When I play a big name, we wind up with somebody like Jonas Blixt, who led the John Deere Classic after the opener last week.

This week, I’m going with the big-name strategy. We all know Jordan Spieth can get red-hot with the flatstick and obviously enjoys playing links-style courses. I want an investment on him this week but can’t fit him onto the outright card with the others I like a little better, so I’ll keep him to a single-round bet, hoping he can post a low one in what promises to be breezy conditions on Thursday.

Matchup Men

Two players who should beat comparable players

Rasmus Hojgaard (+7500) and Nicolai Hojgaard (+10000)

I was tempted to simply write up Nicolai Hojgaard as a plus-money matchup play against his twin brother Rasmus, but are we really sure we know which one is which anyway?

Instead, let’s just go with the Hojgaards against the world, as Rasmus is fresh off a playoff victory at the Made in Himmerland, and Nicolai owns a runner-up finish on the PGA Tour and a pair of top-fives on the DP World Tour this year alone.

They’re each among the candidates for one of the last few roster spots on the European Ryder Cup team, and you know captain Luke Donald would love to see them both play their way on, serving as natural partners during the first two days. Either – or both – can go a long way to making that happen this week.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value

Matt Fitzpatrick, Thorbjorn Olesen, Gary Woodland, Jordan Smith, Thomas Detry, Matthew Jordan, Alex Noren, Eddie Pepperell, & Harrison Endycott

Barbasol Championship Picks

Double your pleasure, double your fun. In addition to the Scottish Open, the alternate-field Barbasol Championship is being played this week, as well, but be forewarned: It ain’t pretty.

How ugly is it? Taylor Pendrith (+1800) is your favorite, followed by the trio of Lucas Glover, Vincent Norrman and Akshay Bhatia (each +2800). I mean, somebody named Niklas Norgaard is seventh on the odds board, despite never having finished better than seventh in his DP World Tour career.

Suffice it to say, I’ll be looking beyond the top of the board.

Justin Lower (+4500)makes a lot of sense as the first name on the card. Lower has been popping up on a lot of early-week leaderboards recently. He also has an unbelievable backstory (one which I wrote about back in my Golf Channel days) which is going to gain some national attention if/when he finally wins.

There aren’t many X-factors like Grayson Murray (+5000), who’s been through a lot both personally and professionally and has made some enemies along the way. He owns a ton of game, though, and when he puts it all together – as he did on the Korn Ferry Tour two months ago – he can win.

A winner of the RSM Classic, Tyler Duncan (+7000) has shown he can find success in the Southeast part of the country. He’s a guy I always like when the wind is blowing, so keep an eye on the weather forecast.

I was a bit surprised, considering the lack of strength of this field, that Jonas Blixt (+10000) checked in at a triple-digit number after last week’s T17 finish, but his best is good enough to win.

And I’ll take a chance that Brandon Matthews (+25000) can pull off a Martin Trainer or Ryan Brehm type of win, which is to say, a guy with talent who comes out of terrible form to play his best golf for four days.