I finally understand the complaints from those on the East Coast when sporting contests go deep into the night. European time zones are wild those of us on the West Coast.
However, I did find it fun to wake up Thursday morning and see Thomas Detry near the top of the leaderboard. A Detry win could go down as the crowning moment of my golf betting career, but it's far too early to declare victory. Instead, let's look for some value to target on Friday.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Genesis Scottish Open Outright Buy
Matt Fitzpatrick 40/1
I feel pretty comfortable with where my pre-event outright card sits. Detry (175/1), Max Homa (45/1) and Tom Kim (60/1) all saw their price chopped after quality showings on Thursday and I'm not sure any of them are bet worthy at their new prices.
I am only going to add Matt Fitzpatrick (40/1) because I would like to keep my exposure reduced in this sector. That being said, my model loved Fitzpatrick's performance on Thursday.
Fitzpatrick ranked inside the top 10 with his ball-striking, which created a surprising twist on the leaderboard as he lost strokes with his world-class short game. My numbers believe the ninth-ranked golfer in the world underachieved his baseline score by 2.17 shots. That new total would have placed him third on the leaderboard when allowing the same factor to take account for all 150+ players.
Genesis Scottish Open Round 2 Matchup Buy
Gary Woodland -110 vs. Nicolai Hojgaard (Bet365)
We were able to connect on Thursday when we grabbed Alex Noren -110 over Rasmus Hojgaard.
Nicolai Hojhaard's middling 74th-place position on the leaderboard saw him overachieve his projected placement by 55 spots.
On the other hand, Gary Woodland shot the same even-par number we got from Nicolai, but did so while underachieving by 18 positions. I wouldn't call that the greatest deviation in expectation since we are only talking about roughly a 2.5-shot disparity, but those strokes matter. Also, my model already had a slight edge between these two prior to the event.
I will take what equates to about 16 points of value and grab Woodland to the tune of 1.1 units to win 1.
