Hero World Challenge Picks, Odds & 2023 Preview: Tiger Woods, Justin Thomas, Wyndham Clark, More

Hero World Challenge Preview

Here's everything you need to know about the 2023 Hero World Challenge — our expert picks and betting preview.

Let’s start out this week’s preview with a quick trivia question: Which two events has Tiger Woods played more than any others over the past decade?

If you answered the Masters as one of them, congratulations. You’ve clearly been paying attention over the past quarter-century, as Tiger does indeed seem to enjoy that tournament.

The other answer isn’t so easy – unless you know which tournament is being played this week then used the clues to unearth this solution.

That’s right, it’s the Hero World Challenge, at which the tourney host will make his sixth start of the past decade this week, tying his number of appearances at Augusta National.

This statistic alone should tell us a few things, some of which we already knew.

Obviously, Woods has played sparingly over the past decade. Despite winning his fifth Masters title during this time, he’s competed in more than three events in just half of these years, the result of multiple back surgeries and a near-fatal car accident which caused serious leg injuries.

It also, though, tells us what the Hero means to him.

Nobody would ever suggest it signifies something on the level of the Masters – or the other three major championships, for that matter – but this tournament clearly represents something to Woods, whether it’s a responsibility to serve in a competitive role as the host or an opportunity to get some important year-end reps before gearing up for the impending season.

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It would be easy enough for Tiger, who this week is returning after an eight-month absence, to show up as the host, pal around with the players, conduct a press conference and leave the sticks at home, but instead he again views this event as a chance to start anew.

Don’t be surprised if he looks surprisingly sharp.

No, I’m not picking Woods at +7000 to win this week, but it doesn’t take an expert to realize that he wouldn’t be competing if he thought he was going to embarrass himself. As I’m writing this preview Monday morning, we’ve yet to witness him prepping for this week, but reports are that his health is better, his swing looks solid, and there appear to be no red flags beforehand.

He’s also likely to be fresher and more motivated than just about anyone else in the field. Many are using this as a late-year money-grab in the tropical paradise of the Bahamas, but he’s using it as a barometer to understand if his game is ready to go up against some of the game’s best players.

My best guess is that by the end of this week, we’re collectively more optimistic about the soon-to-be 48-year-old’s prospects for next year and beyond, whether that means simply playing more frequently, contending with the game’s top talents or even winning again.

Just a few weeks ago, Taylor Zarzour jokingly (or maybe not so jokingly) asked me on his SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio show The Starter about Tiger’s odds to win the Masters after seeing him walk without a limp. The answer is that he’s currently priced at 100/1 for the next major – the same as Phil Mickelson, Adam Scott and Keegan Bradley.

My primary opinion for this week is that by Sunday evening, based on his swing and health, if not his result, Tiger’s odds will shorten considerably, as every golf fan/bettor becomes captivated with the idea that he could write a few more noteworthy chapters into an already prolific story.

As for other predictions, let’s get to ‘em, with three picks for this week’s event.

Hero World Challenge Picks

Justin Thomas (+1600)

Unlike many others in this field, those who have enjoyed varying levels of success in 2023, Thomas is entering this week with one final chance to save his year. Not that a win here will make up for a T65 and three MCs at the majors or missing the FedExCup Playoffs, but it would at least give him a little peace of mind entering the holidays.

Last December, I asked JT to assess his full-year performance, and his answer painted a fairly gloomy picture — and that was in a campaign when he’d actually won a major. You know he’s burning to prove something right now, as much to himself as anyone else.

Then there’s simply the matter of pricing. Look, I’m writing this preview Monday morning, and odds can certainly change, especially in a limited field such as this one.

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From the initial listing, though, there was clearly some separation between the faves — two-time defending champion Viktor Hovland (+450), Scottie Scheffler (+450), Max Homa (+800) and Collin Morikawa (+800) — and the rest of the field. With only 20 players competing this week, I’ll gladly bypass that foursome and start my card in the next tier, one which begins with Thomas.

With fifth-place finishes in each of his last three starts at this one, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him treat this like a big-time event, as he knows he could use some serious momentum heading into next year.

Wyndham Clark (+2200)

Simple logic might suggest that those who have competed in this event previously should own a distinct advantage – from knowing the course, to understanding the prevailing winds, to treating the entire week as more of a business trip than vacation.

And yet, many of those making their tourney debut have enjoyed immediate success in recent years.

In 2018, Jon Rahm won in his first start. Two years ago, Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler and Sam Burns went 1-2-3 on the final leaderboard. And last year, Cameron Young posted a third-place finish.

Clark is one of three players – along with Brian Harman and Will Zalatoris – who will make his debut this week, and there’s reason to believe he could thrive like so many others have before.

Since the Tour Championship, the U.S. Open champion has only made two starts – one in Spain, one in Japan – and failed to record a top-30 finish in either. Granted, this one counts as another “overseas” event but should offer more familiarity for a guy who’s proven he’s not daunted to take on some of the world’s best players, having won a signature event at Quail Hollow in advance of his first major.

At this price, he makes sense in the outright market – and while some will cite inexperience as a reason to stay away, history tells us that might be the very reason to back him.

Will Zalatoris (+3500)

All eyes this week will be on the player returning to competitive golf after an extended absence due to injury.

(Oh, and maybe people will be a little interested in Tiger Woods, too.)

As I wrote above in regard to the tourney host, there’s a definite possibility that he owns more motivation to show off in a late-year event than his fellow competitors, but that notion might go double for Zalatoris, who’s very likely been raring to return from a back injury, though he didn’t see much reason to come back sooner than this week.

He’s actually been sidelined longer than Woods, having last played at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play in March. He was at Augusta National for the Masters but withdrew shortly before his opening-round tee time.

Three months ago, in an interview with PGATour.com, Zalatoris believed he’d be ready to return in October. The fact that he’s instead coming back in late November could mean that he’s now overprepared and restless to compete again.

All things being equal, I don’t mind taking a shot on a guy who’s particularly hungry when so many others might not be.