2023 Honda Classic Odds: Expert Picks for Pendrith, Im at PGA National

“All good things must come to an end” – an axiom which describes both the past two weeks of designated PGA TOUR events featuring all of the circuit’s best players and this week’s Honda Classic, which will include almost none of them as a reportedly lame-duck title sponsor casts uncertainty over the future of these proceedings.

Let’s start with the former: Whether by choice or coercion, the PGA TOUR has clearly developed a winning formula for ensuring its elite-level members compete against each other on a more regular basis.

The WM Phoenix Open was a rollicking experience, culminating with one of the game’s best in Scottie Scheffler capturing the title once again. The Genesis Invitational was enhanced by four days of Tiger Woods, contested on the top annual non-major venue and offered yet another of the best players, Jon Rahm, as a worthy champion.

It would be impossible to observe these past two weeks and somehow contend that the product was better previously – and not just better for the PGA TOUR itself, but the players, the fans, the sponsors and the TV rights holders, which is a tough quartet to please simultaneously.

Now onto the latter from that opening paragraph: Simply put, they can’t all be winners. Unless – or possibly until – the PGA TOUR follows the NASCAR blueprint, it will continue to create a divisive schedule which essentially produces more “haves” each season but leaves plenty of “have-nots,” as well.

Enter the Honda, which despite being played smack dab in the middle of Pro Golfer Nation in South Florida, will include just three top-20 players – No. 18 Sungjae Im, No. 19 Billy Horschel and No. 20 Shane Lowry – and eight among the current top 50.

With the 42-year sponsor apparently bailing on what’s become a watered-down product, the tournament’s future remains in doubt, though it would seem bizarre to not have an event hosted each year in this golf-rich part of the Sunshine State.

For now, though, it remains business as usual as we collectively continue to live by one rule: If they play ‘em, we’ll bet ‘em.

Even before being downgraded to one of the have-not events, the Honda was always a tourney ripe for picking longshots. PGA National’s ubiquitous wind and pervasive water hazards have often given fits to the elite players who dared play it, while leveling the playing field for longer options.

These are the winners’ pre-tournament odds over the past 10 editions of this one:

Over the past decade, we’ve seen more players win from triple-digit odds than inside 75/1. Throw in the fact that even fewer big-name players are playing this week, and this one could be a free-for-all by Sunday afternoon, with plenty of longshots in the mix.

With that in mind, let’s get to the picks, featuring an admittedly eclectic mix of selections.

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Outright Winner (Short Odds)

One player to win the tournament.

Taylor Pendrith (+4000)

If we’ve been reminded of one thing during the PGA TOUR's first seven events of this year, it’s that sometimes the pre-tourney favorite wins the golf tournament because he’s the best player – although yes, that rule seems to apply to Jon Rahm more than anyone else.

Point is, for all the talk about longshots at this event over the years, it might be wise to refrain from overthinking. You know, just throw the whole bankroll at Sungjae Im on a short number and let the best player in this field do his thing. My suggestion is that the more players with long odds you decide to play, try to counterbalance them with a little Sungjae investment, as he could ruin all of those lottery ticket dreams.

You’ve already noticed, however, that it’s not Im, but Pendrith for whom I’m backing as my fave outright with shorter odds. With the former opening at 9/1, I’ll take a chance on the Canadian at a number more than four times the size. Pendrith is one of the game’s emerging better talents off the tee, which is important on a course with as many dastardly hazards as PGA National.

Last year, he posted a T25 in his first appearance at this one, after a third-round 74 derailed his chances. With an extra year of experience – from a handful of top 20s to a spot on the International team at the Presidents Cup – I’m a big believer that his first victory is coming soon, and this seems like a sensible place for that to happen.

Pick: Taylor Pendrith Outright +4000

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Outright Winner (Long odds)

One player to win the tournament

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+5000)

Save me the analysis on the paradox of my long odds outright being nearly the same number as my short odds outright. It’s difficult enough to find anyone on this board who owns anything in the neighborhood of value, but I do like the idea of targeting a guy who owns three DP World Tour wins and two more on the Sunshine Tour – at least he knows how to close out tourneys.

I also prefer to target Bez when the winning total is expected to be closer in relation to par, as his specialty is bogey avoidance due to a sublime short game. The winning score hasn’t been better than 12-under here since 2010, so a lot of the pieces fit. And if they don’t? Don’t be surprised if you see his name back in this exact spot in next week’s preview for Bay Hill, where he’s been a member and his odds might be twice this price against a stronger field.

Pick: Christiaan Bezuidenhout Outright +5000

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Other OADers

Potential selections for one-and-done options.

Billy Horschel (+3000)

This one is giving me vibes of the recent AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which in turn gave me vibes of the 2020 Sanderson Farms Championship. In each of those instances, a proven winner – Justin Rose at Pebble; Sergio Garcia at the Sanderson – entered the week with not only lowered expectations in comparison to some of the hot names, but perhaps some questions as to why he was even competing in a lesser event at all.

Horschel has played here 10 previous times, compiling four finishes of 16^th or better, but it would’ve hardly been a surprise had he sat out this time. With a T30 at the limited-field Sentry TOC, then MC at the Sony Open, T32 at the WM and another MC at the Genesis, perhaps Billy Ho just needs some reps. More likely, though, is that the Florida native just needed to get back to Florida, where he unsurprisingly plays some of his best golf.

Harris English (+4000)

This one is giving me vibes of Billy Horschel, who gives me vibes of… OK, you get the picture. Similar theme here for English, who was injured for much of last year, then returned, then finally regained some form, only to lose it again this year.

But a share of 12^th place last week at Riv has me believing once again in a player who owns top-20 finishes in each of his previous two starts here. Even so, with a high-ceiling/low-floor combo, this one isn’t for the faint of heart but could pay off by the weekend.

Adam Svensson (+4000)

This is the selection that a lot of your OAD peers will make this week, thinking they’re being “sneaky” with a “lesser-known” player, only to be shocked when a fairly large percentage of the pool winds up taking him. Svensson owns a form/history combo which, quite frankly, doesn’t exist throughout much of this entry list.

Coming off a T9 last week and with a T9 to his name here last year, the RSM Classic champion has plenty going in his direction. Just don’t expect him to be a low-ownership play.

Top Five

One player to finish in the top five

Denny McCarthy (+600 for top five)

We all know he’s one of the game’s best putters, but what really impressed me during his T14 performance at Riv was that he gained strokes with his approach shots in each of the final three rounds, including a +2.29 third-round number which led to a 64.

I’ve never really liked the, “Who’s the best player without a PGA TOUR victory?” question because it brings too many variables into play. Just off the top of my head, Tommy Fleetwood is among the most accomplished, and Sahith Theegala is among the most talented, but if we’re for some reason discounting those who either play on another tour or haven’t been around too long, then certainly McCarthy’s name would rank somewhere on this list. He was T3 two years ago here, so another top-five finish wouldn’t be a major leap.

Top 10

One player to finish in the top 10

Russell Knox (+750 for top 10)

Assuming the wind blows this week, because, well, the wind always blows at this one, perhaps Shane Lowry is the safer play, as the Irishman nearly won this title a year ago, until an unfortunate and ironic rainstorm stifled his chances on Sunday afternoon. Instead, I’ll go for bigger odds with another wind specialist in Knox, though his results here don’t exactly leave us with much optimism.

In his first Honda start in 2014, Knox was part of a four-man playoff and lost to eventual champion Russell Henley. The next year, he posted a T3 finish and the year after that was a respectable T26. Since then, however, he’s posted four missed cuts in six starts, and the made cuts haven’t been inside the top 50. His iron play has been solid lately, though, gaining strokes in five of his last six starts, so I don’t mind taking a chance that regains some of that old form on this track.

Top 20

One player to finish in the top 20

Greyson Sigg (+375 for Top 20)

There are a couple dozen players in the 75/1-150/1 outright range this week for whom you can make a case – and there exist even more reasons you can make a case against them. I’m trying to look more at performance and less at results, as the annual cross-country sojourn should yield a different outlook.

All of which leads me to Sigg, who at the very least is making cuts, having cashed in 10 of his last 11 starts, while similarly gaining strokes against the field in 10 of 11, as well. He’s a player I’ve targeted previously on short, tight, Southeast courses, and this one technically qualifies as all three. This is a week where history suggests we should take some chances on outrights, so I don’t mind a small sprinkle, but his solid floor should have us thinking more about using him for these types of props.

Top 30

One player to finish in the top 30

Adam Schenk (+200 for top 30)

This one is such a curious case. We usually prefer to identify strong ball-strikers, players who hit their irons well on a regular basis, one of the more sustainable statistics at the highest level. Well, Schenk seemingly loses strokes to the field on approach shots every week – and yet, his results aren’t bad at all, as he tends to make a lot of birdies and post some solid finishes.

In fact, he owns top 30s in two of his last three starts and five of his last 10. I’m not ready to go all-in yet, but some improvement with the iron play should have him seeing more leaderboards before too long.

Top 40

One player to finish in the top 40

Pierceson Coody (+170 for top 40)

If you don’t know the name, learn it and remember it. Coody helped the University of Texas to last year’s NCAA title and already owns a pair of Korn Ferry Tour victories. That’s the good news. The bad news is that his recent win at the Panama Championship remains his lone non-MC/WD in his last half-dozen starts, so there’s definitely an all-or-nothing proposition to this play. If this is one of those ceiling weeks, though, he can contend against this type of field.

DFS Free Bingo Square

A safe plug-and-play option for DFS.

Sungjae Im

I can’t wait to see the ownership here, but I’m willing to jump on the same train as everyone else and differentiate elsewhere. Last week’s T55 result should be considered an anomaly, as it joins an MC at the Sony as his only results outside the top 20 in his last seven starts. You’ll have to pay up, obviously, but this isn’t a week where you’ll want/need balanced lineups anyway. Plug and play Im, then find your value down the board.

DFS Mid-Tier

A medium-priced option for DFS lineups

Robby Shelton

It’s perhaps taken longer than we might have expected, but Shelton is really starting to find his footing in the big leagues, with six top 25s in 11 starts so far this season. He initially earned his card with a two-win KFT season in 2019, then eventually lost it and gained it back after two more wins on the KFT last year. I’ll likely have a small outright play on him at 55/1, but I especially like him in DFS this week at a place where he was T11 three years ago.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS lineups

Erik Barnes

How’s this for a correlation: Just over a year ago, Barnes and his family moved to Alabama, where he’s played plenty of golf with Shelton (listed above) and Sepp Straka (this week’s defending champion). After working as a Grocery Replenishment Specialist at Publix during COVID-19, the 35-year-old Barnes has played some of the best golf of his life recently, including a T13 at the Farmers Insurance Open a few weeks ago. Armed with a big driver and a hot putter, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him climb the board once again.

First-Round Leader

One player to post the low score Thursday.

S.H. Kim (+7000 for FRL)

I’ve gone back to the S.H. Kim well a few times already this year, and, dammit, I’m determined to get a winning FRL ticket out of him at some point. In 13 starts this season, he’s broken 70 on eight occasions so far, leading to a ranking of 31^st in first-round scoring average. It all reeks of more trend than coincidence, so I like sticking with Kim – especially when the Rahms of the world aren’t around.

Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players.

Tyler Duncan (+25000)

The results here don’t show much course form, with just one finish better than 70^th in four starts, and his recent play still leaves something to be desired, although a T33 last week offers some hope for cautious optimism. The main reason I’m listing him here is that he’s a guy who’s shown a propensity for playing well when the wind starts blowing. At 250/1, he could be worth a play and certainly owns some intrigue in DFS lineups, as well.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value

Alex Noren (+2500), Nick Hardy (+5500), Will Gordon (+5500), Ben Griffin (+5500), Stephan Jaeger (+6500), Aaron Rai (+6500), Lanto Griffin (+7000), Austin Eckroat (+15000), Kevin Tway (+20000), Vincent Norrman (+25000), Andrew Novak (+25000)