Our staff has analyzed the 2023 John Deere Classic odds board and found their favorite picks for TPC Deere Run.
Below, they break down the golfers they're backing to win outright along with players they are fading and other best bets.
Check out our Action Network golf betting experts' picks and previews for the 2023 John Deere Classic below, including picks for Chez Reavie, Mark Hubbard & more.
Favorites We’re Backing
- Matt Vincenzi: Denny McCarthy
- Spencer Aguiar: Seamus Power
Best Long Shot
- Vincenzi: Lucas Glover
- Aguiar: Justin Lower
Biggest Bust
- Vincenzi: Eric Cole
- Aguiar: Byeong-Hun An
Contrarian Player To Target
- Vincenzi: Justin Lower
- Aguiar: Keith Mitchell
Trend That Guides Your Betting Strategy
Aguiar: Most of the scoring dispersion metrics ended up being rather flat in projection for TPC Deere Run. While many want to call this a putting contest, which to some extent shows when you need to get beyond 20-under par to win, I am not sure if this is as putter-heavy of a venue as you see on the surface.
During weeks similar to the one we have here, I always find it best to pinpoint golfers who can take advantage of their expected proximity and create opportunities over only those who would be the most likely to make the putt. Playing good putters for only the sake of being good putters won't do you any good when you realize they won't create enough opportunities to win this event with their ball-striking.
Instead, I would rather find the pristine strikers of the ball and identify corollary trends for why they might find success with their putter on these greens.
2023 John Deere Classic Best Bets
Vincenzi: Chez Reavie +6500 (FanDuel)
Chez Reavie enters the John Deere Classic playing some of his best golf in a number of years. The veteran finished fourth at the Travelers but was in the final pairing with a real chance to win heading into Sunday.
Last week at Detroit Golf Club, Reavie didn’t allow himself to be derailed by the disappointment of failing to win the prior week's tournament in Connecticut. He eventually finished in a tie for 29th, but the way he flushed the ball in Detroit lends reason for more optimism. Reavie gained 8.7 strokes on approach, which led the field by over a stroke.
Reavie struggled slightly on the greens in Detroit, but that appears to be an outlier. Although he’s historically not a great putter, Chez had gained strokes putting in 10 consecutive events prior to the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Few players in the field can get as hot with their irons as Chez when he’s in a groove. His last three starts show that he’s in spectacular ball-striking form and is worth betting outright at TPC Deere Run.
Pick: Chez Reavie Outright |
Aguiar: Mark Hubbard -120 Over Garrick Higgo (bet365)
My model essentially believed we had three areas to avoid against Garrick Higgo to get this bet across the finish line.
First, off-the-tee data will strongly favor Higgo. I thought there were a ton of misconceptions about how this track would play since I didn't find regression with the dispersion of scoring with the driver that some have wanted to point to when running numbers. Placing extra emphasis on those metrics is where Higgo can close the gap.
Because of his length advantage off the tee, Higgo will also have an edge in par-5 scoring. Honestly, that's where the majority of my concern comes from when we dive into Higgo's legitimate high-end birdie-or-better rate when faced with those three holes.
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However, Hubbard has other edges that ultimately give him an advantage in this matchup.
Higgo's weighted Strokes Gained: Total projection for this course saw a 16-spot decrease. Most of that stemmed from a shaky approach profile that showed him having success on just the short par-4 or longer par-5 holes.
Unfortunately for Higgo, that's where most of his birdie-making potential comes from this week. The 11 par-4s highlight his downside considering that he ranks 88th in expected scoring.
That comprehensive computation took all 11 chances and started to stretch him outside the top 100 when looking at anything beyond 367 yards.
Hubbard's recent form does leave a lot to be desired after missing back-to-back cuts. However, I still view this as a scenario where we can bet on one of the better iron players in this field and grab him against a golfer who places outside the top 65 of my model because of his ineffective approach play.
