2023 John Deere Classic Odds & Picks: Bet Chez Reavie, Alex Smalley & Stephan Jaeger

After Rickie Fowler finally got back in the winner's circle at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, the PGA Tour makes one final stateside stop at TPC Deere Run to play the John Deere Classic before the Scottish Open and The Open Championship. Last year, J.T. Poston delivered and won the event after finishing runner-up the week prior at the Travelers Championship.

TPC Deere Run is a 7,268-yard par-71 located in Silvis, Ill., in the Quad Cities area. The course historically fails to present a major challenge to golfers with easy-to-hit fairways and Bentgrass greens. Most players will have short approach shots into the greens, and the event often turns into a bit of a putting contest.

The John Deere Classic will play host to 156 golfers, and as expected, the field is considerably weaker than we have gotten used to this season. After a long run of top-tier events, many of the world's top players are taking the week off.

A few of the notable golfers who will make the trip to the Midwest include Ludvig Aberg, Cameron Young, Russell Henley and Matt Kuchar.

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Past Winners at the John Deere Classic

• 2022: J.T. Poston (-21)
• 2021: Lucas Glover (-19)
• 2019: Dylan Frittelli (-21)
• 2018: Michael Kim (-27)
• 2017: Bryson DeChambeau (-18)
• 2016: Ryan Moore (-22)
• 2015: Jordan Spieth (-20)

5 Key Stats For TPC Deere Run

Let's take a look at five key metrics for TPC Deere Run to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is historically the most predictive statistic at TPC Deere Run.

It's a relatively short course with extremely wide fairways. Lack of distance off the tee will not be a major hindrance to golfers since the majority of approach shots will allow for a short iron or wedge onto the green.

SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Russell Henley (+25.8)
2. Mark Hubbard (+24.6)
3. Emiliano Grillo (+23.6)
4. Alex Smalley (+21.1)
5. Adam Schenk (+20.4)

Strokes Gained, Explained: How to Use PGA TOUR Data in Betting, DFSRead now

2. Birdie or Better: Gained

Scores can get extremely low at TPC Deere Run as the course will offer plenty of birdie opportunities. 12 of the 18 holes on the course historically average under par.

Birdie or Better: Gained Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Eric Cole (+19.4)
2. Emiliano Grillo (+18.7)
3. Scott Piercy (+16.9)
4. Adam Schenk (+16.7)
5. Dylan Wu (+15.4)

3. Par-4: 400-450 Yards

With five par-4s on the course in this range of 400-450 yards, it will be crucial for golfers to play these holes well.

Par-4: 400-450 Yards Past 24 Rounds:

1. Denny McCarthy (+14.4)
2. Taylor Montgomery (+11.4)
3. Russell Henley (+11.4)
4. Adam Hadwin (+10.8)
5. Stephan Jaeger (+10.5)

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4. Proximity 125-150

Approach shots measuring between 125 and 150 yards are very common at TPC Deere Run. This event is likely to turn into a wedge-fest, so whichever golfers dial in with their wedges will have a chance to win.

Proximity 125-150 Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Russell Henley (+9.5)
2. Chesson Hadley (+9.1)
3. Seung-Yul Noh  (+9.0)
4. Sotoshi Kodaira (+8.9)
5. Cameron Young (+7.7)

5. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)

With green in regulation percentages definitively higher at TPC Deere Run than the average PGA Tour stop, the winner will likely be determined by which golfer can catch the hottest putter.

SG: Putting (Bentgrass) over Past 24 rounds

1. Justin Lower (+27.9)
2. Seung-Yul Noh (+23.3)
3. Denny McCarthy (+21.2)
4. Eric Cole (+20.0)
5. Taylor Moore (+17.2)

The John Deere Classic Model Rankings

Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the six key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: App (30%), Birdie or Better (24%), SG: Putting Bentgrass (18%) Par-4: 400-450 Yards (14%), and Proximity: 125-150 (14%).

1. Adam Hadwin
2. Nick Taylor
3. Emiliano Grillo
4. Eric Cole 
5. Adam Schenk
6. Sotoshi Kodaira 
7. Sepp Straka
8. Chesson Hadley
9. Alex Smalley
10. Denny McCarthy

2023 John Deere Classic Best Bets

Alex Smalley +4000 (DraftKings)

Alex Smalley has been absolutely fantastic with his irons of late, and he is a great start to our outright card for the John Deere Classic. Two of the past three winners of the event, Dylan Frittelli (2019) and J.T. Poston (2022), gained over seven strokes on approach in their most recent start prior to winning the John Deere, and Smalley fits the mold as well, having gained 7.3 strokes on approach last week.

Last week's approach performance at Detroit Golf Club wasn't an aberration for Smalley; he's been dialed in for most of the season. However, he has gotten hot as of late. He gained 5.8 strokes on approach at the Travelers Championship and 2.2 at the RBC Canadian Open as well.

Smalley finished 16th at last year's John Deere Classic, gaining 7.5 strokes from tee to green in the process. If he can find his putting stroke, he figures to be in contention this week.

Pick: Alex Smalley Outright

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Stephan Jaeger +4100 (FanDuel)

Players who have flashed with their irons have typically fared well at the John Deere Classic, and Stephan Jaegar was hot at last week's Rocket Mortgage Classic. The German gained 4.0 strokes on approach and 6.6 strokes from tee to green. His ninth-place finish was his best in 2023, and I believe he could build off of that this week.

Jaeger has only played in the John Deere Classic once, finishing 30th, but he appears to be an excellent course fit. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks eighth in the field in Birdie or Better Gained and fifth on par-4s from 400-450 yards. He also gained 10.8 strokes from tee to green at TPC Deere Run last year, showing the track suits his eye.

Jaeger has yet to win on the PGA Tour, but he is a six-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour. He's beaten some very strong players in those victories, so I trust that he has the ability to get it done if he is in the mix come Sunday.

Pick: Stephan Jaeger Outright

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Chez Reavie +6500 (DraftKings)

Chez Reavie enters the John Deere Classic playing some of his best golf in a number of years. The veteran finished fourth at the Travelers but was in the final pairing with a real chance to win heading into Sunday.

Last week at Detroit Golf Club, Reavie didn't allow the disappointment of not winning the in Connecticut derail him. He eventually finished in a tie for 29th, but the way he flushed the ball in Detroit lends reason for more optimism. Reavie gained 8.7 strokes on approach, which led the field by over a stroke.

Reavie struggled slightly on the greens in Detroit, but that appears to be an outlier. Although he's historically not a great putter, Chez had gained strokes putting in 10 consecutive events prior to the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Few players in the field can get as hot with their irons as Chez when he's in a groove. His last three starts show that he's in spectacular ball-striking form and is worth betting outright at TPC Deere Run.

Pick: Chez Reavie Outright

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Lucas Glover +8000 (FanDuel)

Lucas Glover won the John Deere Classic two years ago and looks to be a serious contender to do so once again in 2023. The veteran has changed his putting grip, which paid immediate dividends at last week's Rocket Mortgage Classic where he gained 5.4 strokes putting.

Glover's new putting grip alone won't be enough to win the John Deere Classic this week, but his ball-striking is coming around as well. The former U.S. Open champion gained 6.1 strokes on approach last week, and in his past five starts, Glover is trending upwards and gaining an average of 3.1 strokes on the field from tee to green.

Glover should feel confident this week with his recent success and strong track record around TPC Deere Run.

Pick: Lucas Glover Outright

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Callum Tarren +9000 (DraftKings)

Callum Tarren put together an impressive performance last week at Detroit Golf Club. The Englishman was exquisite from tee to green, excelling both off the tee and on approach. He gained 4.7 strokes off the tee, which ranked second in the field, and 7.1 strokes on approach, which ranked third in the field.

The 12.6 strokes he gained from tee to green was the best performance in that category of his career. He also played well at the Travelers Championship the week prior, gaining 7.3 strokes ball-striking.

Tarren is clearly hitting the ball great, but he has also has shown that he is a fan of TPC Deere Run. Last year, he finished sixth at the John Deere Classic in his first appearance. His second and third-round scores of 65 vaulted the 33-year-old up the leaderboard, which shows he has the capability of going low at this course.

Tarren has struggled with the putter throughout his career, and lost 8.1 strokes putting last week, but he is capable of having a spike putting week where he gains a massive number of strokes putting on the field seemingly out of nowhere. His ability to score on easier tracks and the lack of elite players at the top of the field make this week one of his better opportunities to get his first PGA Tour victory.

Pick: Callum Tarren Outright

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Justin Lower +11000 (DraftKings)

If this event does turn into a putting contest, there are few players I'd want to back more than Justin Lower. The 34-year-old leads this field in the past 24 rounds in Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass greens.

Last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, he gained 7.3 strokes putting. His approach numbers were above average, and he gained 1.6 strokes on the field in that category. However, two starts ago Lower gained 4.4 strokes on approach at TPC River Highlands but had a terrible putting week.

Lower gained 5.5 strokes putting at last year's John Deere Classic but couldn't get the other parts of his game going and finished in a tie for 51st.

The Ohio resident has finished in the top 25 in two of his past three starts, including an eighth-place finish last week. If he can get both his putter and his irons hot in the same week, he can contend at TPC Deere Run.

Pick: Justin Lower Outright

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