If you’re still riding that high from the first men’s golf major of the year, the LPGA is here to continue those good vibes this week. The Chevron Championship has moved from its long-time home at Mission Hills Country Club and will take place at The Club at Carlton Woods for the first time.
This is the LPGA’s first major of the year for the LPGA, so that may explain why the books were a bit asleep at the wheel earlier this week …
Earlier today you could've gotten B*tR*vers listing the wrong sister in an LPGA matchup… It's the biggest implied edge I've ever bet. Just a friendly reminder that if you like winning money (as well as, you know, supporting women's sports) it's still the wild west over here
— Jim Turvey (@TurveyBets) April 18, 2023
Either way, if you love golf, this week’s Chevron Championship offers a stacked field (the entire top 20 of the Rolex World Ranking is in action) and an opportunity to make some money off the sportsbooks that maybe, just maybe, pay a touch more attention to the men’s majors.
Let’s dive in and find some more winners.
The Course
This is the first time Carlton Woods is hosting the Chevron Championship and play will take place on the Jack Nicklaus Signature Course in The Woodlands, Texas.
Not much is known about the course since it will be its first time hosting an LPGA event, but local golfer, Stacy Lewis (who I like a bit this week on the strength of her course knowledge and recent form), has said it plays long. Adding in the weather forecast, which calls for rain, and driving distance will be a key metric to use in your prognosticating.
The Favorites
With all 20 of the world’s best in the field – and with no one true megastar in the world of women’s golf right now – bettors can get at least 10:1 on every golfer in the field.
However, that’s not to say there aren’t some favorites as there is a distinct top seven. Lydia Ko, Jin Young Ko and Nelly Korda are all co-favorites around 10:1, but my favorite of the favorites – Atthaya Thitikul – sits just below that trio.
If you have followed any of my picks on Twitter, you’ll know Thitikul has long been a favorite and that her top-10 bet makes my card almost every week. The 20-year-old has finished in the top 10 in 10 of her past 11 LPGA starts, and even though this is as deep a field as she will find, her floor is incredibly high.
I like Thitikul to finish in the top 10 at +180 at FanDuel.
The Mid-Tier
With such a deep field, it’s no surprise there is also a deep middle tier.
Two names that pop from this range: Madelene Sagstrom and Yin Ruoning.
Sagstrom has been a little bit off over her past two weeks (a missed cut and a T66), but she was the 21st-ranked golfer by Strokes Gained last season, and her first two events this season were far more in line with that profile. Sagstrom is also an absolute bomber off the tee, with a greater driving distance than almost any other true contender. She’s run a bit unlucky with the putter lately, so a sprinkle on Sagstrom at +8000 at BetRivers looks interesting.
However, where I am most looking to play her is a matchup against Ally Ewing, where Sagstrom is -112 (BetRivers).
Ruoning is a bit more of an unknown, but the 20-year-old comes with a strong pedigree from the China LPGA Tour. She started the year with a T16 at the Drive On before a straight up victory in her most recent LPGA event, the DIO Implant LA Open three weeks ago.
It’s only eight rounds, but she is sitting atop the 2023 LPGA Stroke Gained leaderboard at the moment and I’ll be looking to play her a few different ways, but my favorite is a new market.
BetRivers is the first sportsbook I’ve seen add a top-20 market for the LPGA, which is great news for bettors. Ruoning can be found at +200 for a top-20 finish. It will be a smaller play for me since other books actually have longer odds for her win, finish top-5 and finish top-10.
Longshots
There’s really only one golfer and one bet that is popping off the page for me among the longshots.
I like Peiyun Chien to post a top-20 finish (+700) at BetRivers.
Chien is another golfer who has popped in Strokes Gained this season, with 1.40 strokes gained over her first three events. She had her best career LPGA finish (T4) last week at the LOTTE Championship, so this is a longshot bet on her continuing that play. She’s also one of the longer distance hitters I was looking at in the longshot range this week.
