2023 Masters Bets: 3 Picks Featuring Patrick Reed, Patrick Cantlay, More

It's been over nine months since we saw Cameron Smith chase down Rory McIlroy at St. Andrews to claim the claret jug. After an offseason filled with controversy and LIV Golf vs. PGA Tour, the golf world is yearning to witness another major championship where legacies can either blossom or deteriorate in front of our very eyes.

Now, we make Masters picks.

We return to Augusta National with excitement at a fever pitch. With three players  — Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy — separating themselves as the clear favorites, giving bettors plenty of difficult decisions to make.

Another interesting factor this year will be the impact of the recent course changes made at Augusta. The par-5 13th (Azalea) was lengthened by 35 yards and now measures 545 yards; it will play more difficult than in years past after golfers have already faced the incredibly tough stretch of 10-12.

Without further ado, let's get into the course breakdown and analyze some important statistics for Augusta National.

Augusta National is now a 7,510-yard par-72 with lightning-fast Bentgrass greens. The course's primary defenses are the contoured greens, swirling crosswinds, the topography of the course, which creates uneven lies and the small landing areas that golfers will need to hit to avoid tight run-off areas around the greens.

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Past Winners at the Masters 

• 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-10)
• 2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-10)
• 2020: Dustin Johnson (-20)
• 2019: Tiger Woods (-13)
• 2018: Patrick Reed (-15)
• 2017: Sergio Garcia (-9)
• 2016: Danny Willett (-5)
• 2015: Jordan Spieth (-18)
• 2014: Bubba Watson (-8)
• 2013: Adam Scott (-9)
• 2012: Bubba Watson (-10)
• 2011: Charl Schwartzel (-14)
• 2010: Phil Mickelson (-16)

5 Key Stats For Augusta National

Let's take a look at the six most important metrics at Augusta National and determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds. This should give us a good starting point for building out a betting card.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Approach is historically the most important statistic at Augusta National. The sloping, speedy greens and run-off areas create small landing spots that can be difficult to hit.

In the six seasons prior to 2022, the golfers who led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach for the week finished first, first, second, third, first and first. Distance helps, but Augusta National is a second-shot golf course.

Last year, Kevin Na led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and finished 14th. Cameron Smith was second in approach and finished third.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:

1. Tom Hoge (+28.9) (+11000)
2. Max Homa (+27.6) (+2500)
3. Tony Finau (+25.3) (+2200)
4. Scottie Scheffler (+25.2) (+700)
5. Collin Morikawa (+24.9) (+2500)

Course History

More so than any other course on TOUR, familiarity with Augusta National is crucial. Only one player has ever won the Masters on their first try — Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Meanwhile, there are 17 golfers in history who have multiple green jackets.

In most cases, the Masters champion has shown some good form at Augusta in the past. Prior to Scottie Scheffler's 2022 victory, he finished T19 and T18 in his first two trips to the course.

Total Strokes Gained: Total at Augusta National in past 24 rounds (per round, minimum eight rounds):

1. Dustin Johnson (+2.3) (+2800)
2. Jon Rahm (+2.0) (+850)
3. Rory McIlroy (+1.9) (+800)
4. Justin Thomas (+1.7) (+2000)
5. Hideki Matsuyama (+1.7) (+5000)

Strokes Gained: Par 4 

Since plenty of players can reach the par 5s at Augusta in two (with the new 13th possibly being an exception depending on strategy), par-4 scoring becomes more important. The golfer who separates themselves on the par 4s will be able to gain ground on the field.

Total Strokes Gained: Par 4 in past 24 rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (+42.1) (+700)
2. Jason Day (+38.1) (+2500)
3. Max Homa (+36.4) (+2500)
4. Taylor Moore (+32.1) (+25000)
5. Tony Finau (+31.7) (+2200)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

Golfers with a solid short game tend to fare well at Augusta National. The run-off areas are treacherous, and players will often be scrambling to get up and down.

The majority of players who have won at Augusta National have a great short game and have shown consistent ability to get up and down from tough spots.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green in past 24 rounds:

1. Justin Thomas (+16.2) (+2000)
2. Tommy Fleetwood (+15.2) (+7500)
3. Jason Day (+13.9) (+2500)
4. Sungjae Im (+13.8) (+5000)
5. Scottie Scheffler (+13.4) (+700)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bentgrass/Lightning

The USGA calculates that, on average, the greens at Augusta National are the fastest greens in the country. Three-putting is fairly common at Augusta and golfers must be able to combat the speed of the greens with effective lag putting.

Total Strokes Gained: Putting on lightning bentgrass in past 24 rounds:

1. Harris English (+25.3) (+25000)
2. Justin Rose (+18.7) (+7500)
3. Tom Hoge (+17.6) (+12500)
4. Sepp Straka (+17.3) (+35000)
5. Mackenzie Hughes (+17.0) (+25000)

Statistical Model

Below, I've reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (25.4%); Course History (20.1%); SG: Par 4 (18.21%); SG: Putting Bentgrass/Lightning (18.2%); and SG: ARG (14.2%).

1. Jon Rahm (+950)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+700)
3. Rory McIlroy (+700)
4. Xander Schauffele (+2200)
5. Cameron Smith (+2500)
6. Tony Finau (+2200)
7. Justin Thomas (+2000)
8. Jason Day (+2500)
9. Jordan Spieth (+1800)
10. Justin Rose (+7500)
11. Collin Morikawa (+2500)
12. Kevin Na (+30000)
13. Patrick Reed (+7500)
14. Chris Kirk (+18000)
15. Talor Gooch (+11000)
16. Max Homa (+2500)
17. Viktor Hovland (+3000)
18. Mito Pereira (+12000)
19. Dustin Johnson (+2800)
20. Patrick Cantlay (+2200)

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The Masters Picks

Jon Rahm (+950) (FanDuel)

A few months ago, I never thought that I'd be able to say that Rahm would be going slightly under the radar heading into the 2023 Masters. It's not that Rahm has done anything wrong, but both Scheffler and McIlroy have undoubtedly surpassed him as the scorching hot, super-elite, top of the market betting favorite category.

Since his win at Riviera, the Spaniard has finished 39th at Bay Hill, withdrew at The Players Championship, and failed to get out of the group stage at the WGC Dell Match Play. On the other hand, Scheffler won The PLAYERS Championship and McIlroy finished third at the WGC Dell Match Play.

Pick: Jon Rahm +950

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Rahm has made six starts at The Masters and has come in the top-10 in four of them. The 28-year-old has incredible power off the tee, a requirement at Augusta which always plays longer than the scorecard indicates. He's also incredible around the greens and ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained: Short Game, which is a combination of around the green play and putting, in his past 24 rounds.

As we've seen over the years at The Masters, having the ability to chip and putt your way out of difficult situations is a fundamental aspect of getting it done at Augusta National.

While Scheffler has made a strong case to be viewed as the world's best player, I still believe that title belongs to Rahm. This could be the year Rahmbo joins the ranks of Seve Ballesteros, José María Olazábal, and Sergio Garcia as natives of Spain to don a green jacket.

Patrick Cantlay (+2000) (BetMGM)

At this point in his career, Patrick Cantlay has struggled relative to expectations at major championships. In 20 major starts as a professional, Cantlay has only finished in the top-10 three times and has failed to get deep into contention at any of them. However, last year he made some strides with a T14 at the U.S. Open and an eighth-place finish at The Open, which were his last two majors played.

The recent solid play at majors is enough for me to take the chance on the enormous talent that is Patrick Cantlay. In his past 24 rounds, the 31-year-old ranks sixth in Strokes Gained: Total and first in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. Cantlay's 2023 has been the best he's ever hit the ball with driver, and that will be a major factor at Augusta National.

In his past three starts, he's gained 4.6, 5.6 and 5.8 strokes off the tee respectively. Playing from the fairway is an excellent way to avoid trouble at Augusta, and he has a stellar short game to complement the driving prowess. Cantlay is an excellent putter and Bentgrass has been his preferred surface throughout his career.

There are a handful of players who can make the case for the best player on Tour without a major, but I believe Cantlay gets the nod. That may change this week with a Masters Championship victory.

Patrick Reed (+7500, FanDuel)

I'm not incredibly high on the LIV golfers chances this week when it comes to actually winning The Masters. It's not that I feel they're incapable in general, but the lack of reps and rhythm in the early part of their season may prove to be a hindrance in the year's first major. However, if there is a LIV golfer who can get it done, it's Patrick Reed, who's a proven winner and has a tempting spot on the odds board.

Reed's recent play on the LIV Tour has been encouraging. In his three starts on the season, he's got progressively better in each one, finishing 38th in Mexico, 18th in Tucson and fourth in Orlando. If LIV results won't convince you of Reed's ability to compete at Augusta, which is understandable to a degree, then look to his performance at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic.

The 32-year-old finished in second place, just one shot behind Rory McIlroy. There has been a link in the past to success at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic and having success at Augusta. In 2016 Danny Willett won in Dubai and won The Masters in April. The same can be said for Sergio Garcia in 2017.

It's not just the finish in Dubai that steers me towards Patrick Reed at The Masters. It's everything that led up to his finish there. Early that week, there was the controversy where Reed apparently flicked his "four aces" tee at Rory McIlroy when he received a cold reception from the four-time major winner.

Reed is the type of player who is fueled by being the villain. There will be plenty of negative attention on Reed and the rest of the LIV Golfers this week, and he will undoubtedly be incredibly motivated to make a run at a second green jacket.

Pick: Patrick Reed +7500

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