The week golf fans wait for all year is finally here, and we roll into The Masters with storylines on top of storylines — and our 2023 Masters pick and best bets for favorites and longshot winners at Augusta.
The Masters has really turned into a 365-day betting event. The books have this thing completely dialed in, to the point that most of my outright bets come well before the week of the event.
There's nothing wrong with trying to buy low with your Masters pick or best bet six months ahead of time on a golfer you'd like to bet in April, anyway. Golfers rarely miss this event with an injury and every player we'd expect to be here this week is here. The only guy who has withdrawn is Aaron Wise.
Max Homa will be popular this week, but when FanDuel was hanging 120/1 in May, it's tough to recommend someone bet him at 25/1. Tony Finau is another popular bet, but when 50s were around all summer, I'm not going to advise someone to take 22/1.
In the end, I'm going to bet the Masters. You're going to bet the Masters. So let's bet the Masters.
2023 Masters Pick, Best Bets: Favorites and Longshot Winners
The Course
There's not a ton new about Augusta National this year. We have a new tee box that should lengthen No. 13 and make it more difficult, bringing the total distance to a little over 7,500 yards for a par 72.
Overall, this place tends to benefit the longer hitters, but it is the approach game that usually stands out for the winners. The long irons are particularly important to set up easy birdie chances on the par 5s. Another note about Augusta is that scrambling from around the greens has more value than putting this week.
We saw both of those factors come into play during Hideki Matsuyama’s 2021 run to the title. He’s been known for quite awhile as one of the best iron players and while the putting has always been an issue, his touch around the greens with the wedges has been a strength throughout his career. We also saw that from Scottie Scheffler, when he gained a little over 5.5 shots around the green in his win last year.
The Favorites
From a betting perspective, this is the most difficult Masters I can remember in quite awhile. It's not often we have three clear guys at the top who are all in major championship winning form.
With Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm playing as well as they are, this week is tough. It's hard to bet any of them because the reward of getting paid +700 or +800 is small given all the factors that go into winning at Augusta. Yet it's also hard to back anyone else, because who is playing well enough (and at good odds) to take down all three when they're waltzing in with their 'A' games?
Two guys near the top catch my eye: Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa.
They both go about the game in different ways. Cantlay is one of the most well-rounded, consistent players out there. He's going to drive the ball well, he'll hit his irons well and his short game is elite. He's won plenty on Tour and the next logical step is for him to win a major.
As for Morikawa, we already know he's got the game to win majors. It's just about the putter spiking for him. The irons are in great shape and he's been near the top of leaderboards quite often. He's also continually improved his results at the Masters. If the short game is there this week, he's a value in the +2000s.
Pick: Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay
The Midtier
The Masters hasn't been a tournament where we've had to dig too deep in the odds in recent years. We've had a few seemingly out of nowhere wins, but come the week of the event, we haven't had someone outside the +5000 range since Charl Schwartzel in 2011. By now, the books have dialed in any suspected sleeper who is showing form.
Down here, we'd look to a guy like Cameron Young in the +4000s range. Young notably made a caddie change and promptly reached the final of match play, where it was a little surprising that he lost to Sam Burns, especially in blow out fashion. Young hits the ball as far as anyone and his iron game continues to impress. Since missing the cut last year at the Masters, he's finished top three eight times worldwide without a win. The game is there for a breakthrough, the question is whether it can be done on this stage.
Pick: Cameron Young (if in the +4000s)
The Long Shots
At this point, everything on the PGA Tour is pretty well known. However, this is the spot where the LIV guys may slide under the radar. The spotlight will be on Cam Smith, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, etc. But guys like Mito Pereira, Abraham Ancer and Talor Gooch are all playing well.
Can they win here? Probably not — but they're worth a look for a place bet. They're the type of players in solid form who, if they were on the PGA Tour playing like this, they'd be slotted in that 60-100/1 range. Instead we're getting solid triple digits.
Pick: Mito Pereira, Abraham Ancer, Talor Gooch to place
