Golf on the whole has been a whirlwind over the past year-plus. For Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, that has been the case even more than for most others — and that certainly impacts our 2023 Masters bets for Tiger and Phil.
The return to golf and health has been the story for Woods, while it's been a negative turn of events and overall tarnishing turn of events for Mickelson since he seemingly peaked with his unlikely win at the 2021 PGA Championship.
This week, though, Tiger and Phil will be back in the same field at Augusta National, with Woods set to draw all of his typical crowds for the right reasons while Phil will capture the attention of the patrons who may not be cheering him on like they did in the past.
Both players are the types of megastars who many want some exposure in betting markets. Let's lay out the best ways to do that, starting with our Tiger Woods Masters bets and predictions.
Tiger Woods Masters Bets, Predictions: Expert Picks for Tiger (And Phil)
Tiger Woods
DraftKings is one sportsbook that has created an entire "Tiger at Augusta" special market, making it easy to find a way to get exposure to the five-time Masters Champion. There are a couple of spots there that I like and I'm going on the positive angle for Tiger this week after his display at the Genesis Invitational, has me believing he is in for a solid week of golf.
My first and favorite play on Tiger will be for him to make the cut. DraftKings has the best odds I see for now at -165, which implies about a 62% probability. Our friends over at DataGolf like his odds a bit better than that, giving him a 64% made cut probability, which would equate to about -177. All of this adds up to a solid play on Tiger to make the cut as it's nice when the math lines up with the heart and watching the Big Cat play the weekend is what we all want to see.
I'm tempering my expectations beyond that especially as the markets are providing some pretty poor numbers mostly around the fact that they know they will get action regardless of where they set the lines.
One other place I would take Tiger in markets currently open is on his opening round birdie prop at DraftKings, which is offering +105 on over 3.5 birdies and with his knowledge of the course, four birdies is a reasonable get in all of his rounds this week. We can typically think of all four par 5s as birdie opportunities, even as they have lengthened the 13th, and I expect he'll get some more looks throughout the day.
2023 Masters Best Bets for Tiger Woods: To Make the Cut (-165), Over 3.5 Birdies in First Round (+105)
Phil Mickelson
Now for Phil, who I would expect most will be betting against this week — and I would agree.
If you wanted to throw one positive dart on him, I'd do it in the First Round Leader market. He has frequently come out hot at the Masters with strong opening rounds and with this market gaining in popularity, you could bet him with a little bit of exposure through the placements spots of the first round.
FanDuel has odds up right now at +310 for a top-20 and +800 for him to have a top-10 opening round, with him as the leader at +10000. BetMGM is where I would go for a top-five finish in the first round, where even at a shorter +1600, their set up to pay ties in full will be even more important when we are talking about just one round. I would just sprinkle some "lunch money" in this market as it's just for fun, and it's frankly more likely he fires an 80 than he goes out and scores well enough to be on the first page of the leaderboard on Thursday.
The true betting opportunity for me on Mickelson is in the missed cut market, where we're getting -106 at BetRivers.
DataGolf gives him about a 55% missed cut probability, showing a little bit of value at this number. It certainly is arguably harder to miss the cut at this tournament than the others since it's a smaller field with several amateurs and former champions that aren't likely to be competitive. From what we have seen from Phil over the past year, though, this is where my expectations lie for him this week.
2023 Masters Best Bet for Phil Mickelson: To Miss Cut (-106)
