2023 Masters Predictions: Expert Pick to Win the Masters, More

AUGUSTA, Ga. – Welcome from Augusta National Golf Club, where I’ll be spending the next week covering this tournament and trying to uncover nuggets of information and opinion which can help your betting card, DFS lineups, pools and any other investments — everything you need to bet the Masters, including my 2023 Masters predictions and picks.

If nothing else, the 87^th Masters Tournament stands to be one of the more intriguing editions that we’ve ever witnessed, with so many elite-echelon players competing at such a high level. Case in point: Last year, there were 15 competitors with odds of 40/1 or shorter; this year, there are 22.

Throw in the 18 qualified players from LIV Golf – more than 20% of the entire field – and the variance in potential outcomes should be greater than most of those previous 86 events.

Speaking of which, I’ll have a full breakdown on the LIV contingent from a betting perspective a little later this week, plus an analysis of potential first-time major winners, a ranking of the entire 88-man field and so much more, including our Action Network golf show, "The Gimme," plus the Links & Locks podcast.

Before we get to the 2023 Masters predictions and picks to win and more, a few general thoughts to keep in mind as you make your selections this week:

1) Augusta National is often described as a second-shot golf course – and for good reason. Iron play is of the utmost importance here, as evidenced by each of the last two winners. Two years ago, Hideki Matsuyama ranked fourth in the field on approach shots; last year, Scottie Scheffler was sixth. It’s difficult to imagine a player being field average or even just a little bit better and still winning this tournament. Sure, you’ve gotta putt well, too, but you can’t only putt well.

2) Everybody loves a longshot to win, but they don’t tend to cash tickets here. Over the past decade, according to the archives at golfodds.com, winners have held average pre-tournament odds of 27.1/1, with the longest being Matsuyama at 60/1. (Yes, even Danny Willett had shortened to 50/1 by tournament week.) That doesn’t mean another Charl Schwartzel – the last Masters winner at a triple-digit price in 2011 – can’t happen, but it does mean that’s an unlikely scenario.

3) Other than that, don’t blindly eliminate anyone based solely on specific variables. It used to be claimed that only experienced players could win here, but Scottie Scheffler won in his third Masters start and Jordan Spieth in his second. Similarly, age is just a number, as well. Spieth won at 21; Woods was more than twice as old. You’ll see a lot of people playing the “elimination game” in order to weed through potential contenders, but many of those so-called disqualifying data points have largely been disproven.

With that, let’s get to the 2023 Masters predictions and picks, starting with a player who checks every box and would hardly be a surprising champion.

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2023 Masters Predictions

Outright Winner (short odds)

One player to win the tournament

Jon Rahm (+900)

Unless we’re in a Tiger-like period of utter domination, the way we answer the question of, “Who’s the best golfer in the world right now?” probably says more about us than them.

Some might simply look at this from a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately perspective, in which case Scheffler is the likely reply. Others might consider it a query of which player wins if they’re all playing their best, which could very well be McIlroy.

Others, however, can view this as a question regarding which player scares you the most to fade – the guy about whom you’ll be kicking yourself if you leave him off the card. For me, that player is Rahm.

Despite three wins already this year, he’s somehow slid down to third on most oddsmakers’ boards, logically behind Scheffler, but perhaps not so logically behind McIlroy, who appeared a bit lost before his third-place finish at the WGC-Match Play.

I’m sure Rahm himself couldn’t care less about this number, so I’m not implying this is some sort of motivational justification. Instead, consider it a nod to the fickle world of golf prognostications, where a player who ranks third in strokes gained tee-to-green, fourth in approach, 17^th around the greens, 12^th in putting and – you guessed it – first in strokes gained total can actually offer a modicum of value at a single-digit outright price.

With four top-10s and nothing worse than T-27 in six career Masters starts, Rahm is everything we’re looking for in a potential winner this week.

Pick: Jon Rahm +950

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Outright Winner (Long odds)

One player to win the tournament

Shane Lowry (+6000)

Maybe it took him a few spins around Augusta National to figure it out, maybe his confidence was bolstered after winning his lone career major. Whatever the case, there remains a specific line of demarcation in Lowry’s performances at the Masters.

Prior to winning the Claret Jug in 2019, he’d posted a T-39 and three MCs in four career starts. Since that victory, he’s chronologically finished 25^th, 21^st and T-3 – the last of which occurred last year, when he posted a pair of sub-70 scores to continually climb the leaderboard. Much of that was due to a short game and putting display which each ranked fourth among those who played all four rounds.

If his iron game – which was well below the field average that week – is up to his usual standards, there’s no reason why Lowry can’t contend here once again.

Other OADers

Potential selections for one-and-done pools

Rory McIlroy (+700)

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: McIlroy has never won the Masters, but he really, really wants to. There, I just succinctly broke down what I’d expect to be numerous pre-tournament 3,000-word dissertations examining Rory’s ballyhooed travails at Augusta.

Over the last nine years, he’s finished 2^nd (last year), 4^th, 5^th (twice), 7^th, 8^th and 10^th. If you’re keeping the faith and want to bet him for an outright to finally claim that career grand slam, my advice is to wait – if not until the second round or the weekend, at least hope that number gets a little longer before you fire on Thursday.

Of course, you can’t press pause on those pool picks. I’d expect Rory to be (perhaps) more popular than anyone named Scottie Scheffler – and that parenthetical is only because McIlroy’s usage in these pools could actually exceed that of Scottie.

Pick: Rory McIlroy +700

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Patrick Cantlay (+1800)

Full disclosure: It really came down to the wire between Rahm and Cantlay for my favorite outright play this week, with Rahm winning out in the end. That said, Cantlay will (likely) be No. 2 when my ranking is posted this week, based on his terrific recent iron play. He’s been nearly a full stroke per round better than field average in his last four starts, which includes two top-fives, three top-10s and all four inside the top-20.

The only trepidation here is that his Masters record leaves a bit to be desired, with a T-9 in 2019 serving as his lone top-10, with finishes of 17^th, MC and 39^th the past three years.

Cameron Smith (+2200) / Dustin Johnson (+2500)

If you’re in a season-long OAD, then you’re already well aware that your options to use LIV Golf regulars are limited to the major championships, but there are obviously still world-class players worth using. Enter Smith and Johnson, the two most obvious choices based not only on talent level, but recent history.

Smith owns four top-10s in his last five Masters starts, three of which were top-fives, while Johnson owns six finishes of 12^th or better in his last seven starts here, including his victory in the fall of 2020. Expect each of these guys to be popular plays this week, especially in pools where multiple selections are mandatory for the majors.

If you want to follow the same strategy with better leverage on a higher-risk/higher-reward type of play, consider Joaquin Niemann or Brooks Koepka, each of whom will probably go largely overlooked in favor of Smith and Johnson.

Patrick Reed (+5500)

OK, one more LIV suggestion. Coming off a third-place finish at the most recent LIV event, Reed epitomizes the antithesis of what some might expect from players on that tour – he won’t be satisfied with the money and won’t be unmotivated to play his best golf in a big event.

I expect the 2018 champion to show off his usual deft touch around the greens and climb the leaderboard throughout the week, perhaps even besting all of those fellow LIV peers with shorter numbers next to their names.

Sungjae Im (+3500)

Alright, so I didn’t exactly give you any names you didn’t know amongst those first four OAD selections – and Im isn’t exactly a no-name, either, but there’s a good chance he gets lost in the mix among so many strong options.

I feel like Sungjae has been building toward something big over the past year and especially recently, with a T-21 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T-6 at The Players and T-17 at the WGC-Match Play. Already with a runner-up and a T-8 at Augusta in the past three years, he offers just a slightly contrarian play against the big boys, while still a viable pick, perhaps more so in pools with multiple plays.

Top-Five

One player to finish top-five

Jordan Spieth (+350 for top-five)

It’s been difficult to watch Spieth over the past month and a half and not have a growing sense that he’s building up to a big week at Augusta National.

One of the game’s most creative players on a course which requires creativity, there’s a reason why he owns five top-three finishes in nine career starts. Granted, “only” one of those has occurred in the past four years, but Spieth’s repeated magic act in recent starts should have us believing another one is coming.

If there’s an issue, it’s come with his putting inside 10 feet, as he ranks 119^th in putts made from 4-8 feet, holing just over two-thirds of his opportunities. Here’s a prediction: If he continues to hover around that number this week, he’ll finish outside the top 10; if he gets it up to around 75%, he’ll seriously contend; and if he gets somewhere into the 80-85% range, he’ll win.

Top-10

One player to finish top-10

Tony Finau (+200 for top-10)

In previous years, picking Finau for a top-10 – any top-10 – was the ultimate backhanded compliment to a player who kept coming close but couldn’t leap back into that winner’s circle.

Last year, he proved that he has what it takes to win more consistently – even against less-than-stellar fields – and what we’ve seen so far this year is a player whose numbers show he’s playing nearly as well as anyone, even if he hasn’t been seriously contending. In eight official starts this year, he hasn’t finished better than T-7, but hasn’t finished worse than T-24.

I’ve often written about players on the verge of some “positive regression,” much like a baseball pitcher whose 2.39 ERA is counterbalanced by a 7-10 record, and I believe that Finau’s results are going to catch up to his production very soon.

Top-20

One player to finish top-20

Tom Hoge (+290 for top-20)

Quick: Who’s the leading iron player on the PGA Tour this season? If you answered Hoge, well, no kidding … it says his name right there. But honestly, if it didn’t, you might’ve guessed Justin Thomas or Collin Morikawa or Will Zalatoris. Instead, it’s Hoge who’s been as dialed in as anyone with his scoring clubs.

If you don’t believe he can contend at a big event, well, you probably missed his tournament-record third-round 62 at The Players last month, which led to a third-place finish. I’m still not completely sure I’ll have Hoge’s name inside the top 20 when I release my field ranking this week – as I’ll explain in that piece, there are an awful lot of big-time players to fit into that top 20 – but I do believe he offers value here as a potential candidate to cash these tickets.

Top-30

One player to finish top-30

Si Woo Kim (+150 for top-30)

I considered listing Si Woo as a DFS play below, but he might own more value here. Kim is a guy who earned his reputation as a high-ceiling/low-floor option over the first part of his career, but he’s settled nicely into consistency, with nine finishes of 39^th or better in his last 10 starts, including his Sony Open victory three months ago. Likewise, he’s finished between 12^th (twice) and 39^th in each of the previous five editions of the Masters, so there’s a solid course history floor here, as well.

Top-40

One player to finish top-40

Tiger Woods (-175 for top-40)

You were going to ask the question anyway, so here’s your answer: Yes, I do believe Woods will make the cut this week.

Last year, in his first official tournament start in over 500 days, he made the cut and finished T-47 here. Sure, he’s another year older and still can’t practice nearly as much as he’d like, but he’s also coming into this week armed with more prep and more confidence than he owned a year ago.

We’ve all learned to never say never when it comes to Tiger, but while a title contention seems unlikely, an improvement on his most recent Masters performance makes plenty of sense. He won’t be pleased with a top-40, but it makes the most sense for those who want to have a Tiger play.

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A safe plug-and-play option for DFS.

Scottie Scheffler ($11,100 DK)

Aren’t you glad you read all the way down to this section of the preview, just so I could tell you that the world’s No. 1-ranked player makes for a decent DFS play this week?

Look, you don’t need me to explain that Scheffler is really good at golf, but there’s some rationale behind the idea of spending up for him in lineups this week. He’s now defended the first three of last year’s four titles and they went like this: Another victory at the WM Phoenix Open, a T-4 finish at the API and he was a semifinalist at the WGC-Match Play.

We’ll hear often this week – as we do every year in regard to the previous year’s champion – that the only players to successfully defend a Masters title are Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods. Even if Scheffler doesn’t join that elite list, it’s tough to envision him finishing much further back. You’ll have to find a couple of lower-priced players to fill out the bottom of the lineup, but Scheffler should pay off at the top.

DFS Mid-Tier

A medium-priced option for DFS lineups

Abraham Ancer ($7,400 DK) and Talor Gooch ($6,800 DK)

With multiple DFS milly-makers this week, you’ll want to get a little weird with your lineups for differentiation purposes – and nothing is weirder than LIV players decked out in their team gear at Augusta National.

Even so, as I wrote in the intro above, there are 18 of these players intermingling with the rest of the field and it’s hard to think there won’t be some in the mix. Adding the right ones could be the ultimate leverage play this week. Ancer won an Asian Tour event in Saudi Arabia earlier this year and owns a 13^th and a 26^th among his three previous Masters starts. He could be especially motivated by the fact that, in theory, this could be his last-ever appearance in this event.

Gooch, meanwhile, was establishing himself as one of the game’s high-floor types of players prior to leaving the PGA Tour almost a full year ago, finishing top-20 in four of his last seven and seven of his last 14 before joining LIV. Since last year’s majors, he’s played three OWGR-sanctioned events and has a pair of top-20s. And with LIV this year, he’s made three starts, each of them inside the top-third of the field.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS lineups

Gordon Sargent

Remember the name. Sargent has spent the past few months flip-flopping back and forth with Ludvig Aberg for the No. 1 amateur ranking in the world. A sophomore at Vanderbilt and the reigning NCAA champion, Sargent was offered a special invitation into the Masters, suggesting that winners of that event might be given exemptions moving forward.

In his past half-dozen collegiate starts, he’s finished 7^th-2^nd-1^st-3^rd-2^nd-7^th, with a sixth-place finish at the Jones Cup Invitational thrown in for good measure. He hits it ungodly far off the tee and, should he be able to keep his nerves in check, offers the best chance for an amateur to make the cut this week.

If you’re going to spend up for a Scheffler or Rory, you’ll need a discount somewhere and Sargent should offer value – especially for a player the public should largely overlook.

First-Round Leader

One player to post the low score Thursday.

Justin Rose (+5500 for FRL)

Over the last decade-plus, it’s often been Charley Hoffman who’s gotten the reputation as a Thursday superstar at the Masters, but the reality is that Rose has opened with brilliant first rounds more than anyone.

Two years ago, he cashed his fourth career FRL ticket at this tourney. In fact, Rose has held or shared the lead after eight Masters rounds – the most ever by a player who’s never won a green jacket.

A winner at Pebble Beach, he looks rejuvenated this year. You’ll want to have an investment on him in some realm this week and it would make the most sense to choose a Thursday-only investment, based on his long history of R1 success here.

Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players.

Corey Conners (+3500)

Following his Sunday victory at the Valero Texas Open, the Canadian’s odds have dipped way too low for my liking in the outright market, but he offers strong value in other places, based largely on the fact that he’s finished top-10 at Augusta in each of the previous three years. One of the game’s best ball-strikers, Conners’ world-class iron play should lead to another high floor, which is what we’re seeking in matchups. I like him against a handful of similarly priced players, including Viktor Hovland and Tyrrell Hatton.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value

Collin Morikawa (+2200), Brooks Koepka (+3500), Keith Mitchell (+9000), Sahith Theegala (+11000), Keegan Bradley (+11000), Mito Pereira (+11000), Billy Horschel (+18000), Jason Kokrak (+25000), Sepp Straka (+30000)