The weather at the Masters could turn into one of the biggest storylines this week.
Thursday is expected to be a relatively calm day, but the weather could get pretty nasty on Friday and Saturday.
With the weather changing every day, it can be difficult to find a betting advantage. With the forecasts as projected on Wednesday afternoon, we want to take a look at whether there will be a specific advantage for the morning wave or the afternoon wave.
If you are unfamiliar with waves, there is a specific way that tee times in professional golf events are typically organized. If a golfer tees off in the morning in the first round, that same golfer will tee off in the afternoon for round two and vice versa. It's done this way because playing conditions can be vastly different in the morning than in the afternoon.
This does not appear to be a typical weather week.
Thursday Weather
It appears everybody will be playing in similar conditions on Thursday.
According to AccuWeather, the wind will be below 10 mph throughout the day. There's a possible chance of rain and thunderstorms in the afternoon, but those chances have decreased throughout the week. There is currently a 51% chance of precipitation around 3 p.m. ET, which is when the afternoon wave will be on the course.
On the flip side, it will be significantly warmer for the afternoon guys as temperatures will be around 70 degrees for the morning wave and 80 degrees for the afternoon wave. Warmer temperatures can help golfers as the ball tends to fly further and the golf ball is more predictable.
We will still give a slight advantage to the morning wave with rain possible in the afternoon.
Friday Weather
Friday is the day that things can get messy.
Rain is expected throughout the day, with the lowest chance of rain in the Augusta area at 34% around 3 p.m. As of Wednesday afternoon, it looks like the morning wave will have to deal with more rain than the afternoon wave.
Winds are expected to pick up as the day goes on according to AccuWeather. The afternoon wave could get as high as 20 mph gusts.
The most interesting part about the Friday winds, however, is the direction. The winds will start the day coming from the south direction and then eventually flip and start coming from the northeast direction. Northeast will allow for down winds and some of the more difficult holes including the par 5s.
Northeast is also the predicted wind direction for Saturday and Sunday. That could mean the players have prepared more for that wind direction throughout their practice rounds.
Although the morning wave will deal with less wind, it could turn out to be a more difficult wind direction.
With all of that being said, it appears the afternoon wave could have a slight advantage as long as the wind stays around 10 mph with gusts close to 20 mph. If the steady wind gets closer to 15 mph, the advantage would go to the morning wave.
Betting Outlook
As of now, it appears the wind will be a very small factor for the waves and it will be more dependent on the rain.
The Thursday afternoon/Friday morning wave will likely deal with more rain than the other wave.
When targeting golfers with an advantage in the rain, the longer hitters will likely have the advantage due to the ball speed and their ability to carry it further on softer fairways. The last time the Masters dealt with significant rain was in the fall of 2020, when Dustin Johnson won. Johnson is notorious for his carry distance.
There is, however, a caveat to bigger hitters having the advantage at Augusta in the rain. One reason longer hitters have historically had an advantage at Augusta is their ability to hold the difficult greens with shorter irons and wedges. If the shorter hitters are able to hold the greens with longer irons, they could take a liking to softer greens.
