We entered the Mexico Open lacking star power with just two of the current top 16 players in the world teeing it up. But as we head into Sunday's final round, those two are at the top of the leaderboard as Tony Finau has a two-shot advantage over World No. 1 Jon Rahm.
Finau, seeking his first win of the season, has been the best player in the field thus far. He charged up the leaderboard to take the lead into the weekend after a 7-under 65 on Friday; he followed it with a solid 6-under 66 on Saturday. But Finau had to be looking over his shoulder as he got into his third round — Rahm was making his move and ultimately posted a 10-under 62 to put himself just two back.
While the stars make the headlines, they aren't alone up there as 21-year-old Akshay Bhatia is battling alongside them for his first career win. He will start the day tied with Rahm while Brandon Wu is just one shot behind them. The gap grows from there. Will Gordon is in fifth at 13-under. He is three shots behind Wu and six behind Finau.
It seems to be set up as a four-man battle for the win on Sunday, with the big two having a heavy leg up in experience.
Let's see who stands out going into the final round of the Mexico Open and pick a winner in this last tournament before the calendar turns to May.
Strokes Gained Explanation
Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.
Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.
In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, SG: Ball Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.
You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but are just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.
3 Golfers to Buy for Round 4 of the Mexico Open
I'm really only focused on the two big names going into the final round of the Mexico Open.
While I want to believe Finau is past his struggles trying to close out wins, the pick is Rahm for me. We aren't going to get value, but that's been the case since the start of the tournament. Rahm is the World No. 1 for a reason, and when a player of his caliber is in contention, I tend to simply expect him to find a way to get it done.
Rahm had it going throughout Saturday. He gained more than five shots on the field tee-to-green and added three more with the flat stick. I don't expect him to stay that hot on the greens, but he doesn't have to be on that level facing just a two-shot deficit. He'll have many opportunities to pressure Finau early in the round, and it'll be interesting to see how the leader handles the 54-hole lead. I expect Rahm to eventually take over and close it out for the back-to-back win at +170 on PointsBet.
The battle for fifth is one that could be interesting, though that's not to say the current top four are locked in. But the gap between the top and Will Gordon makes for a pretty clear separation when looking at the top-five market. Last year, we saw a couple of players put together really low rounds and charge near the top; I think that may be where we find the most betting value on Sunday.
If I'm betting on someone currently outside the top five, I'm going with Andrew Putnam. He got a little loose off the tee on Saturday, but he was sharp with that part of his game through the first two rounds and he has been one of the best in the field on approach. If Putnam can find the feeling again with his driver, I like his chances to slide into the top five. At +400 on BetMGM, who pays all ties in full, he presents a nice number.
Joseph Bramlett is someone I've always thought had more talent than people realize. He has shown flashes of really good play, but generally those have been in short spurts and low rounds rather than full tournaments where he has posted strong finishes.
I think he is set up to put together a top-10 type of week if he can find the putter in the final round. He has improved each and every day, both on approach and overall tee to green, including 3.54 strokes gained in that metric on Saturday. If Bramlett improves on the greens, he has a strong chance to erase the two shots between him and a top-10 finish, making that market look pretty good to me at +350 on BetMGM.
