We're back to regular stroke play this week with our Mexico Open picks.
Last week, Davis Riley and Nick Hardy won the PGA Tour Tag Team Championships at the Zurich Classic. This week, it's Jon Rahm and Tony Finau headlining an underwhelming field at Vidanta Vallarta.
Our staff has laid out its picks and strategies for the week. Check out where our action is on the PGA Tour with our Mexico Open picks below.
Click arrow to expand 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta odds via BetMGM
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jon Rahm | +250 |
| Tony Finau | +750 |
| Wyndham Clark | +1800 |
| Gary Woodland | +2500 |
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Nicolai Hojgaard | +2800 |
| Patrick Rodgers | +2800 |
| Byeong Hun An | +3500 |
| Beau Hossler | +4000 |
| Maverick McNealy | +4000 |
| Stephan Jaeger | +4000 |
| Aaron Rai | +4500 |
| Alex Noren | +4500 |
| Emiliano Grillo | +5000 |
| S.H. Kim | +5000 |
| Taylor Pendrith | +5000 |
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ben Martin | +5500 |
| Alex Smalley | +5500 |
| Brandon Wu | +5500 |
| Joseph Bramlett | +6000 |
| Robby Shelton | +6000 |
| Andrew Putnam | +6600 |
| Lee Hodges | +6600 |
| Luke List | +6600 |
| Matt Wallace | +6600 |
| Will Gordon | +6600 |
| Garrick Higgo | +6600 |
| Harry Hall | +6600 |
| Chez Reavie | +8000 |
| David Lipsky | +8000 |
| Lanto Griffin | +8000 |
| M.J. Daffue | +8000 |
| Mark Hubbard | +8000 |
| Patton Kizzire | +8000 |
| Dylan Wu | +9000 |
| Nate Lashley | +9000 |
| Akshay Bhatia | +10000 |
| Andrew Novak | +10000 |
| Charley Hoffman | +10000 |
| Eric Cole | +10000 |
| Michael Kim | +10000 |
| Vincent Norrman | +10000 |
| Austin Eckroat | +12500 |
| Cameron Champ | +12500 |
| Doug Ghim | +12500 |
| Erik van Rooyen | +12500 |
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Francesco Molinari | +12500 |
| Greyson Sigg | +12500 |
| Henrik Norlander | +12500 |
| Jimmy Walker | +12500 |
| Kevin Streelman | +12500 |
| Peter Malnati | +12500 |
| Adam Long | +15000 |
| Alejandro Tosti | +15000 |
| Augusto Nunez | +15000 |
| Dylan Frittelli | +15000 |
| Harry Higgs | +15000 |
| Kevin Chappell | +15000 |
| Matthias Schwab | +15000 |
| Ryan Gerard | +15000 |
| Scott Piercy | +15000 |
| Sean O'Hair | +15000 |
| Aaron Baddeley | +17500 |
| Ben Taylor | +17500 |
| Brent Grant | +17500 |
| Carl Yuan | +17500 |
| Doc Redman | +17500 |
| Lucas Glover | +17500 |
| Martin Trainer | +17500 |
| Matti Schmid | +17500 |
| Austin Smotherman | +20000 |
| Brandon Matthews | +20000 |
| Brice Garnett | +20000 |
| Callum Tarren | +20000 |
| Cameron Percy | +20000 |
| Carson Young | +20000 |
| Hank Lebioda | +20000 |
| Kevin Tway | +20000 |
| Nico Echavarria | +20000 |
| Tano Goya | +20000 |
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Seung-Yul Noh | +22500 |
| Chris Stroud | +25000 |
| Cody Gribble | +25000 |
| James Hahn | +25000 |
| Martin Laird | +25000 |
| Satoshi Kodaira | +25000 |
| Zecheng Dou | +25000 |
| Austin Cook | +30000 |
| Jonathan Byrd | +30000 |
| Kevin Roy | +30000 |
| Paul Haley | +30000 |
| Ryan Armour | +30000 |
| Ryan Moore | +30000 |
| Grayson Murray | +35000 |
| Harrison Endycott | +35000 |
| Michael Gligic | +35000 |
| Trevor Werbylo | +35000 |
| Tyson Alexander | +35000 |
| Bill Haas | +40000 |
| Cristobal Del Solar | +40000 |
| Fabian Gomez | +40000 |
| Kelly Kraft | +40000 |
| Kyle Westmoreland | +40000 |
| Scott Harrington | +40000 |
| Alvaro Ortiz | +50000 |
| Brian Stuard | +50000 |
| Camilo Villegas | +50000 |
| D.J. Trahan | +50000 |
| Geoff Ogilvy | +50000 |
| Jose De Jesus Rodriguez | +50000 |
| Toledo | +50000 |
| Mateo Fernandez de Oliveira | +50000 |
| Max McGreevy | +50000 |
| Richy Werenski | +50000 |
| Ricky Barnes | +50000 |
| Scott Brown | +50000 |
| Sung Kang | +50000 |
| Trevor Cone | +50000 |
| Wesley Bryan | +50000 |
| William McGirt | +50000 |
| Kyle Reifers | +60000 |
| Derek Ernst | +75000 |
| Derek Lamely | +75000 |
| Greg Chalmers | +75000 |
| Jonas Blixt | +75000 |
| Kyle Stanley | +75000 |
| Nick Watney | +75000 |
| R. Pereda | +75000 |
| Sebastian Vazquez | +75000 |
| Arjun Atwal | +100000 |
| Ben Crane | +100000 |
| Boo Weekley | +100000 |
| Brian Davis | +100000 |
| D.A. Points | +100000 |
| George McNeill | +100000 |
| J. B. Holmes | +100000 |
| Jose Cristobal Islas | +100000 |
| Kevin Stadler | +100000 |
| Omar Morales | +100000 |
| R. Lebrija | +100000 |
| S. Jurgensen | +100000 |
| Richard S. Johnson | +100000 |
| Ted Potter Jr | +100000 |
| Tommy Gainey | +100000 |
| Zach Bauchou | +200000 |
Favorites We’re Backing
- Jason Sobel: Tony Finau
- Chris Murphy: Gary Woodland
- Spencer Aguiar: Tony Finau
Best Long Shot
- Sobel: Akshay Bhatia
- Murphy: Garrick Higgo
- Aguiar: Alex Smalley
Biggest Bust
- Sobel: Maverick McNealy
- Murphy: Beau Hossler
- Aguiar: Andrew Putnam
Contrarian Team To Target
- Sobel: Brandon Matthews
- Murphy: Cameron Champ
- Aguiar: Andrew Novak
Trend That Guides Your Betting Strategy
Sobel: Vidanta Vallarta is a 7,456-yard par-71 (designed by none other than Greg Norman!) which should once again offer an edge to the biggest hitters. With only one previous edition of this event as a PGA Tour schedule-filler, we don’t have much to go on, but there are only nine top-100 players in this field, so there’s some rationale behind chasing a few long-hitting long shots.
Murphy: There was a mixed bag at the top of the leaderboard in this event last year, when the Tour played its first tournament at Vindata Vallarta. While several of the longer hitters in the game stood out near the to with the likes of Jon Rahm, Tony Finau and Cameron Champ finishing in the top 10, I will lean into that trend this week but also focus on overall tee to green play.
All of the top-12 finishers from last year gained strokes off the tee. Though it’s a small sample, it makes sense to be a trend on a par-71 course with four par 5s and a driveable par 4.
Aguiar: Vidanata Villarta delivered as we expected last season in its inaugural go-around on the PGA Tour. Wide-open fairways rendered this driver-heavy test that saw players be able to bomb and gouge because of the lack of rough at the property. However, it is essential to note that the sticky Paspalum grass that runs throughout the property generated a test that didn't breed the distance you might expect off the tee.
I say all of that before mentioning that we did experience a 13-yard increase in expectation with distance. Still, the more significant issue stemmed from the 42.3% of second shots that took place from beyond 200 yards last year, a total that placed 19.4% above the PGA Tour average in projected influence.
2023 Mexico Open Picks
Sobel: Will Gordon — Top 10 (+490)
For a second consecutive week, my outright card will be fairly light. I’ll likely have some Finau at a short number, buoyed by a few lottery tickets on Bhatia, Matthews and maybe Martin Trainer, all of which sound incredibly terrible.
That said, there exists a decent market for props this week, which is where Gordon comes in.
The results haven’t quite been there yet, but Gordon has gained strokes with his approach play in seven of his last eight starts. A share of third place back in the fall portion of the schedule at Mayakoba should at least offer a nice correlation for this one. Gordon should similarly be a candidate for OAD pools and DFS, as well.
Pick: Will Gordon — Top 10 (+490) |
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Murphy: Gary Woodland +2500 (BetMGM)
The first number that stands out to me right here is Gary Woodland, who has been playing much better golf since the start of 2023 — even if the top results aren’t quite there for him.
It just seems that one metric is letting him down and keeping him from contending. Last time out, it was his play around the greens, where he lost 4.8 strokes to the field at the RBC Heritage to erase 4.4 strokes gained on ball striking and four more on the greens.
He’s lost more than five shots with the putter in three separate events this year, including seven strokes lost on the greens at The Players, where he gained 8.2 strokes tee to green.
Overall, his ball striking has been really strong and elite at times. This is a course where he’ll be firing driver off the tee to some fairly forgiving landing zones and should have plenty of opportunity to put himself in position for success with the short game.
If he can finally pair his game on and around the greens with the ball striking he has shown this year, the Mexico Open could be a great chance for him to capture his first win since the 2019 U.S. Open.
Vincenzi: Nicolai Hojgaard +3000 (bet365)
Last week, Hojgaard accepted a Special Temporary Membership for the remainder of the season. It's no surprise that the promising young talent was offered the exemption, and he's been excellent of late. He finished second at the Corales Puntacana Championship and followed it up with a 28th at the Valero Texas Open, an event in which he gained 5.2 strokes on approach.
The second place at the Corales Puntacana Championship is notable, considering the paspalum grass he played on that week will be similar to what we'll see in Mexico. Last year, I picked Brandon Wu to play well in the event based on his track record in Puntacana, and he didn't disappoint with a second-place finish.
Nicolai built off his strong play in last week's Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Hojgaard and his compatriot Thorbjorn Olesen finished 32nd, which doesn't appear to be a great finish, but context is important. According to Data Golf, Hojgaard gained 7.6 strokes on the field during the tournament, while Olesen lost 10.5 strokes.
Distance should be a major asset this week, and over his past 24 rounds, Hojgaard ranks first in the field in Driving Distance.
With a win this week, the 22-year-old rising star would put himself in a good position to make the 2023 Ryder Cup team in Italy, and I believe the course sets up perfectly for Hojgaard to contend.
Aguiar: Lanto Griffin (-120) Over Greyson Sigg (BetRivers)
There are a handful of ways to consider taking on Greyson Sigg this week in various markets, but one of my favorite routes of trying to gain exposure against the 228th-ranked golfer in the world is in a head-to-head matchup.
All books have different pairings, so be sure to shop around for other possible opponents. Although it is worth noting that we get this potential situation here against Sigg, where the market seems to be reacting too strongly to his 33rd-place finish last season.
Sigg hasn't placed inside the top 45 in 11 starts this season, and it doesn't help matters that he ranked 106th in my model for distance + long iron proximity and 88th-place tee-to-green. That last total placed 43 positions below his baseline output on my sheet, making this a spot where I am going to trust my math over the consensus movement that is taking place throughout the space.
