It's a weak board for us at the Mexico Open at Vidanta, highlighted by an outright market that has removed most potential exposure from the table because of the inflated totals across the slate.
That factor merges into an overall weaker placement market since many aspects are intertwined when books combine numbers for an event. It doesn't mean we can't find value in other sectors of the space to try and find an edge for a tournament that looks to be experiencing an off-week from an odds and player standpoint. However, it will come down to the in-tournament market grading above anything else when we search for plays in Mexico.
Most tournaments land on that same strategy for me, but let's talk about one of those wagers tomorrow that does have an adequate amount of value to consider placing a wager on for Thursday.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
You can also find an in-depth breakdown of how I'm betting this week's tournament wherever you get your podcasts on our Links and Locks Mexico Open at Vidanta Betting Preview.
Mexico Open Round 1
Will Gordon (-110) Over Andrew Putnam (bet365)
I've been a big proponent this week that a golfer like Andrew Putnam may be someone that you want to consider taking on in various markets because of his recent surge of production that has shifted his odds in multiple avenues of the space.
I will say that a head-to-head wager is likely the weakest "fade" route since the four made cuts in his past five starts will help to move him into a top 40 option on my model, but this is one of those spots where the recent deviation in public perception can be used to our advantage by trying to take him on in a battle where he may be getting too much support.
My model ranked Putnam 123rd in this field when equally combining distance and long iron proximity to form an expected output for the week, and the scrambling and short-game expectations naturally get reduced since we are talking about a wide-open venue that diminishes those two critical factors that sometimes will help to propel him up a board.
The problem is that I don't necessarily trust the safety we get out of Will Gordon here and could see a plausible scenario where the floor crashes down to the bottom of the leaderboard on day one. Still, it is hard to ignore the upside totals that will start pushing him into being one of those enticing first-round leader candidates or savvy DFS plays for a day.
You can see how these two start to overlap when I ran this for safety over anything else, but let's trust the overall profile and grab a number that is off by about 15 points. That is typically not enough for me to recommend a play, although I have significant concerns that Putnam's lack of distance and long iron proximity will catch up to him at this event.
My only ask is that it comes on Thursday.
